scholarly journals The impact of budgetary and political institutions on fiscal cyclicality: Evidence from Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 72-84
Author(s):  
Sarah El-Khishin ◽  
Mohamed Zaky
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Golden Rule ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Variables ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the cyclicality of fiscal policy in Egypt during the period of 1976–2019 with a focus on how budgetary and political institutions affect fiscal performance during economic cycles. We define new variables for budgetary and political institutions and incorporate them in a vector error correction model (VECM) and impulse response functions (IRFs) analysis. While current and capital spending are proven to behave procyclically, revenues respond countercyclically during business cycles. Poor political and budgetary institutions have a negative impact on the primary deficit in a way that led to procyclical behaviour in fiscal policy in the long run. We recommend reinforcing the Golden Rule and changing the nature of the electoral system to a party-based to strengthen the role of parliament in keeping the government accountable

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in South Africa: VECM Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 231
Author(s):  
Tshembhani Mackson HLONGWANE ◽  
Itumeleng Pleasure MONGALE ◽  
Lavisa TALA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Development ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal policy ensures macroeconomic stability as a precondition for growth at the macro level. This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth of South Africa from 1960 to 2014 through a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach. It seeks to contribute to the existing literature as well as in designing effective fiscal policy programmes which can propel economic performance. Theresults of the long run estimates revealed that government tax revenue has a positive and significant long run influence on economic growth, whereas the government gross fixed capital formation and budget deficit have a negative impact on real GDP. For that reason, the study recommends that some expansionary fiscal policy measures should be strengthened since they play a very important role in the economy so as to meet the government target of the National Development Plan Vision for 2030.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in South Africa: VECM Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 231-238
Author(s):  
Tshembhani Mackson HLONGWANE ◽  
Itumeleng Pleasure MONGALE ◽  
Lavisa TALA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Development ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal policy ensures macroeconomic stability as a precondition for growth at the macro level. This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth of South Africa from 1960 to 2014 through a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach. It seeks to contribute to the existing literature as well as in designing effective fiscal policy programmes which can propel economic performance. Theresults of the long run estimates revealed that government tax revenue has a positive and significant long run influence on economic growth, whereas the government gross fixed capital formation and budget deficit have a negative impact on real GDP. For that reason, the study recommends that some expansionary fiscal policy measures should be strengthened since they play a very important role in the economy so as to meet the government target of the National Development Plan Vision for 2030.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAMPAK TARIF CUKAI HASIL TEMBAKAU TERHADAP PENERIMAAN NEGARA DAN PRODUKSI TEMBAKAU DOMESTIK

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-129
Author(s):  
Doni Triono
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Tobacco Products ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Tobacco Production ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Negative Growth ◽  
State Revenues

The government implements fiscal policy with rising excise almost every year. Increasing in excise tariffs can affect in economic growth, especially state revenues and tobacco production. Considering the magnitude of the impact, this study would like to review the implementation of the excise tax policy and its relation to state revenue, the number of cigarette factories and the production of tobacco products. Results of the study found that fiscal policy with rising excise tariffs on tobacco products give a positive influence on state revenues. The evidence from the increase in excise revenue every year despite the challenges facing the government. But on the other hand, it has a negative impact on the number of cigarette factories and tobacco products. The number of tobacco products has declined due to the implementation of the policy. The same thing happened to the production of tobacco products that experienced negative growth. Thus the implementation of fiscal policy with rising excise tariff is in line with the purpose of imposition of excise tariffs, namely reducing the consumption and circulation of taxable goods, and increase state revenues. Pemerintah menerapkan kebijakan fiscal dengan menaikkan cukai hampir setiap tahun. Adanya kenaikan tarif cukai tersebut, memberikan dampak terhadap terhadap perekonomian khususnya penerimaan negara dan produksi tembakau. Melihat besarnya dampak tersebut maka penelitian ini ingin meninjau pelaksanaan kebijakan kenaikan tarif cukai sehubungan dengan penerimaan negara, jumlah pabrik rokok dan produksi hasil tembakau. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif untuk menjelaskan hubungan kausal kenaikan tarif cukai terhadap penerimaan negara dan produksi tembakau domestik. Dari hasil penelitian ditemukan bahwa kebijakan kenaikan tarif cukai hasil tembakau yang dilaksanakan pemerintah memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap penerimaan negara. Hal ini terbukti dari meningkatnya penerimaan cukai setiap tahunnya meskipun terdapat tantangan-tantangan yang dihadapi pemerintah. Namun pada sisi lain memberikan dampak negatif terhadap jumlah pabrik rokok, dan produksi hasil tembakau. Jumlah pabrik hasil tembakau mengalami penurunan karena adanya pelaksanaan kebijakan tersebut. Hal yang sama juga terjadi pada produksi hasil tembakau yang mengalami pertumbuhan negatif. Dengan demikian implementasi kebijakan kenaikan tarif cukai sesuai dengan tujuan pengenaan tarif cukai, yaitu mengurangi konsumsi dan peredaran barang kena cukai, serta meningkatkan penerimaan negara. 

Exploring the long-run relationship between financial inclusion and agricultural growth: evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Usman Farooq ◽  
Fu Gang ◽  
Zhenzhong Guan ◽  
Abdul Rauf ◽  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between financial inclusion and agricultural growth in Pakistan for the period of 1960–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the Johansen co-integration test and the dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) method are used for the evaluation.FindingsThe results show that in both short- and long run, domestic credit has a significantly negative impact on the agricultural growth, while broad money and cropped area positively affected the agricultural growth in Pakistan in both cases.Practical implicationsThe government and policymakers need to develop strategies that bring together agriculturalists on a single platform so that the government can clearly distinguish the interests of these farmers and can obtain precise information for allocating agricultural expenditure and easing access to credit for small-scale agriculturalists.Originality/valueThis is the first study to evaluate the impact of financial inclusion on the agricultural growth in Pakistan by using different econometric techniques, including the ARDL-bound approach, Johansen co-integration test and DOLS method.

Is Fiscal Deficit Essential for Stimulating Economic Growth in Developing Economies? Theory and Empirical Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The primary purpose of this paper was to assess the impact of fiscal deficit on the economic growth of the Indian economy and find out the causality between fiscal deficit and economic growth from 1981-82 to 2019-20. To analyse the long-run relationship between the variables Johansen Co-integration test was used; after verifying the existence of long-run relationship among variables, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used, and the Granger Causality test was also used for investigating the direction of causality between pair of variables. The findings of the study supported the ideology of classical economists in which they neglected the government intervention for the growth and development of an economy. The results showed that in long run, fiscal deficit had a significant negative impact on economic growth as one percent increase in fiscal deficit demoted the GDP growth rate by 0.075 percent, whereas in the short run, the impact was also found negative, but it was significant only one lag. Simultaneously, there was unidirectional causality found from fiscal deficit to GDP growth.

scholarly journals Impact of Public Policy Shocks on Components of Aggregate Demand in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
pp. 95-111
Author(s):  
Saima Shafique ◽  
Muhammad Mansoor Ali ◽  
Saif Mujahid Shah
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tax Changes ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal policy has strong distributional effects as the alteration in tax rates and spending decisions cause different sectors of the economy to respond differently. Correct information about this reaction and understanding transmission mechanism is essential to create policies that can have development and growth effects. The study analyzed the impact of fiscal policy on disaggregated data of Pakistan in a SVAR setting. The analysis reveals an uneven distribution of fiscal policy shocks across different sectors of Pakistan with varying degrees of responsiveness. There is heterogeneity in the response of different sectors as well as components of aggregate demand in Pakistan to fiscal policy shocks as revealed in impulse response functions. It is results reveal that tax revenue shock generated a higher response in different sectors than the government expenditure shock conforming to the theoretical expectation that tax changes impact the agents faster than the expenditure decisions. This regressive behavior in Pakistan seems mostly due to higher spending on debt servicing and maintaining a large public sector with huge spending on pensions and social security networks.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY TOWARD ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POVERTY RATE IN INDONESIA

2010 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-424
Author(s):  
Indra Maipita ◽  
Mohd. Dan Jantan ◽  
Nor Azam Abdul Razak
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The government is continuously formulating some policies in order to boast economic growth and downsize poverty rate. However, the government is facing some obstacles such as an increasingly in budget deficit which is potentially impacting to the determining of priority scale as well as the pro and contra within it. Based on that consideration, economic policy is needed to be revised and redesigned in order to meet the need of pro growth, pro job, and pro poor. Generally, this research aims to examine the impact of an expansion and contraction of fiscal policy measures on Indonesia economic performance. For the purpose of this study, the change of macro economic indicators, economic sector performance, and the change of poverty and income distribution are examined using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In order to evaluate the disparity of income distribution, beta distribution function is used which is adopted from Decaluwe, et al. (1999). This study employs Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (F-G-T) and Cockburn (2001) methods to evaluate poverty (poverty incidence) on each household group. The results of this study show that the impact of an increase in subsidy is more favourable than two others fiscal policy measures. Even though the policy of transfer income gives a positive impact for the upsizing of rural household income and the downsizing in poverty, but on the other hand it has negative impact on others household income which aggregately has a negative impact on the decreasing of GDP. JEL Classification: I32, E62.Keywords: fiscal policy, poverty, income distribution

Impact of macroeconomic and microeconomic variables on firm investment: Mexican service sector, 2000-2016

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Peujio
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Firm Investment ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

A large and positive relationship is found to exist in the long-run between Public Investment Expenditures and Firm Investment which shows that public investment crowds in private investment using ARDL model at macroeconomic level on the Mexican service sector over the period 2000-2016. I also use the system-GMM PVAR to analyse the impact of microeconomic variables on firm investment. Exports have a strong and positive impact while Imports have a large and negative impact on firm investment. At the microeconomic level, taxes payments slightly obstruct firm investment. Using impulse response functions, I find that long-run macroeconomic policies are more important than short-run macroeconomic policies and that macroeconomic policies are more important than microeconomic policies for firm’s investment decisions.

scholarly journals THE CROWDING-OUT EFFECT OF FISCAL POLICY ON CAPITAL INFLOWS IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 043
Author(s):  
Abdurrauf Idowu Babalola ◽  
Saidat Oluwatoyin Onikosi-Alliyu
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

The study investigated the effect of fiscal policy on crowding out capital inflows in Nigeria using annual data between 1970 and 2011 by using the foreign direct investment (FDI) as proxy to capital inflows represent the dependent variable, budget deficit (BD), foreign borrowing (FL) and domestic borrowing (DL) as proxies to fiscal policy are placed as explanatory variables. Cointegration and ECM technique were employed. Our finding showed that in both the short and long run, BD does not crowd out but rather crowd in FDI. In the short run, DL averagely has significant positive impact on FDI.  However, in the long run, DL has significant negative impact on FDI. More so, in both short run and long run period, FL has significant negative impact on FDI, therefore, FL crowds out FDI. The speed of adjustment back to equilibrium showed that the explanatory variables have capacity to adjust FDI significantly. The study recommends that the government could try to be aware of the implication of its fiscal policy in running a budget deficit and making proper decision in sourcing for funds to finance the deficit. Foreign borrowing is less expensive in financing budget deficit, so if the government must borrow, it should give preference to this source. Generally, the government should reduce deficit because of the implications inherent in it.

KAJIAN DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN PENUTUPAN LOKALISASI TELEJU OLEH PEMERINTAH KOTA PEKANBARU

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
M. Zainuddin
Keyword(s):  
Social Order ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Policy Content ◽  
The Government ◽  
Closure Policy ◽  
The Impact

This research to analyze the impact of closure policy Teleju brothel by Pekanbaru govermentin 2010. Guidelines for works are Pekanbaru Local Regulations No. 12 of 2008 on Social Order-liness. Closure this brothel inflicts positive and negative impact for society.The research wasconducted to obtain early stage formula for the government to take action against the prostitu-tion activities. This research uses policy research approach with a qualitative method, becausein prostitution activities and prohibition by goverment is an assessment that needs to be done byanalyzing documents and unstructured interview.The results showed that after the closing of the Teleju brothel have an impact on the deploy-ment of a prostitution and affect the economy of the surrounding residents. Government seeksto tackle prostitution in Pekanbaru by moving the brothel, conduct regular raids and providetraining. The effort is considered to be less than the maximum because the handling is not basedon the root of the problem and not programmed properly. There are several causes of failure ofgovernment to overcome the prostitution problem in Pekanbaru, including: policy content isless focus on the prostitution problem, the government did not proceeds with data, lack of finan-cial support, contra productive programs between local government with the police and TNI,and the policy object is difficult to be given understanding.

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