Principles for modelling financial markets

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 601-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eckhard Platen ◽  
Rolando Rebolledo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Probability Measures ◽  
Market Clearing ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

The paper introduces an approach focused towards the modelling of dynamics of financial markets. It is based on the three principles of market clearing, exclusion of instantaneous arbitrage and minimization of increase of arbitrage information. The last principle is equivalent to the minimization of the difference between the risk neutral and the real world probability measures. The application of these principles allows us to identify various market parameters, e.g. the risk-free rate of return. The approach is demonstrated on a simple financial market model, for which the dynamics of a virtual risk-free rate of return can be explicitly computed.

Principles for modelling financial markets

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (03) ◽  
pp. 601-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eckhard Platen ◽  
Rolando Rebolledo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Probability Measures ◽  
Market Clearing ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

The paper introduces an approach focused towards the modelling of dynamics of financial markets. It is based on the three principles of market clearing, exclusion of instantaneous arbitrage and minimization of increase of arbitrage information. The last principle is equivalent to the minimization of the difference between the risk neutral and the real world probability measures. The application of these principles allows us to identify various market parameters, e.g. the risk-free rate of return. The approach is demonstrated on a simple financial market model, for which the dynamics of a virtual risk-free rate of return can be explicitly computed.

A Puzzle of Excessive Equity Risk Premium and the Case of Poland

e-Finanse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Paweł Kliber
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Excessive Risk ◽  
Free Rate

AbstractThe article presents a historical review of the literature related to the empirical problem of excessive risk premium. The risk premium (the difference between the return on equities and risk-free rate) observed in financial markets cannot be reconciled with theoretical models of financial markets - it is too high (“excessive”). We present the original model from the seminal work of Mehra and Prescott (1985), where this problem has been signaled. The article gives an overview of the main trends in the literature concerning this problem, of the proposed solutions and of the extension to the model. Finally, we consider the problem in the Polish context, estimating the original Mehra-Prescott model using data from the Polish financial market.

Modern Financial Market Theory – A Critique Based on the Logic of Human Action

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-467
Author(s):  
Thorsten Polleit
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Market Theory ◽  
Expectation Theory ◽  
Market Economics

The modern financial market theory (MFMT) – based on the efficient market hypothesis, rational expectation theory, and modern portfolio theory – has become the standard approach in financial market economics. In this article, the MFMT will be critically ­reviewed using the logic of human action (or: praxeology) as an epistemological meta­theory. It will be shown that the MFMT exhibits (praxeo-)logical deficiencies so that it cannot provide investors with well-founded decision-making support in real-world financial markets.

scholarly journals CONNECTING THEORY AND EMPIRICS FOR ANIMAL SPIRITS, RETURNS AND INTEREST RATES: A CLARIFICATION OF “RISK-FREE RATES AND ANIMAL SPIRITS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS”

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750002 ◽  
Author(s):  
JUKKA ILOMÄKI
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

I clarify and combine the results of Ilomäki (2016a) and Ilomäki (2016b) and find several interesting conclusions. First, the effect of the animal spirits component to the expected returns of investors depends on the risk-free rate. Second, there must be an upper limit for the risk-free rate, where the component that reduces the expected returns of informed investors in Ilomäki (2016a) disappears. Third, the empirical results of Ilomäki (2016b) indicates that the break-even level is as low as 3%.

IMPLICATION OF THE KELLY CRITERION FOR MULTI-DIMENSIONAL PROCESSES

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 93-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
YINGDONG LV ◽  
BERNHARD K. MEISTER
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
General Setting ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Kelly Criterion ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

In this paper, we study the Kelly criterion in the continuous time framework building on the work of E.O. Thorp and others. The existence of an optimal strategy is proven in a general setting and the corresponding optimal wealth process is found. A simple formula is provided for calculating the optimal portfolio in terms of drift, short term risk-free rate and correlations for a set of generic multi-dimensional diffusion processes satisfying some simple conditions. Properties of the optimal investment strategy are studied. The paper ends with a short discussion of the implications of these ideas for financial markets.

scholarly journals Non-Arbitrage Models of Financial Markets

2021 ◽  
pp. 67-112
Author(s):  
N. S. Gonchar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Wide Class ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Martingale Measure ◽  
Fair Price ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Contingent Liabilities ◽  
Initial Measure

In the first part of the paper, we construct the models of the complete non-arbitrage financial markets for a wide class of evolutions of risky assets.This construction is based on the observation that for a certain class of risky as set evolutions the martingale measure is invariant with respect to these evolutions. For such a financial market model the only martingale measure being equivalent to an initial measure is built. On such a financial market,formulas for the fair price of contingent liabilities are presented. A multi-parameter model of the financial market is proposed, the martingale measure of which does not depend on the parameters of the model of the evolution of risky assets and is the only one.

scholarly journals Ambiguity Aversion and the Variance Premium

2019 ◽  
Vol 09 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjun Miao ◽  
Bin Wei ◽  
Hao Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Return Variance ◽  
Quantitative Performance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Free Rate

This paper offers an ambiguity-based interpretation of the variance premium — the difference between risk-neutral and objective expectations of market return variance — as a compounding effect of both belief distortion and variance differential regarding the uncertain economic regimes. Our calibrated model can match the variance premium, the equity premium, and the risk-free rate in the data. We find that about 97% of the mean–variance premium can be attributed to ambiguity aversion. A three-way separation among ambiguity aversion, risk aversion, and intertemporal substitution, permitted by the smooth ambiguity preferences, plays a key role in our model’s quantitative performance.

RISK-FREE RATES AND ANIMAL SPIRITS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650011 ◽  
Author(s):  
JUKKA ILOMÄKI
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Animal Spirit ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Global Stock ◽  
Free Rate

We show analytically that animal spirit excess profits for uninformed investors fall (increase) when the risk-free rate rises (falls). In the theoretical analysis, we examine the expected returns of risk-averse, short-lived investors. In addition, we find empirically that the local risk-free rates explain 14% of the changes in the animal spirit excess profits in the global stock markets for the last 29 years when the animal spirits is characterized as a product of the trend-chasing rule.

The risk free rate of return in UK property pricing

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman Hutchison ◽  
Patricia Fraser ◽  
Alastair Adair ◽  
Rahul Srivatsa
Keyword(s):  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

scholarly journals Empirical Testing of Capital Asset Pricing Model on Bahrain Bourse

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar
Keyword(s):  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Standard Theory ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Capm Model ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Free Rate

<p>The study is undertaken to find out the relationship between portfolio returns and market returns and test the empirical validity of the standard CAPM model on Bahrain Bourse. The study is based on 39 companies listed in the Bahrain Bourse, Bahrain All Share Index as market proxy and yield of Government of Bahrain securities as risk free rate of return. The study covers period from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014.  The analysis of the results of the study revealed that many of the independent variables together with beta can explain the portfolio returns.  However, the intercept test reveals that the portfolio returns are equal to the risk-free rate of return. Therefore, we can conclude that the results of intercept test of standard CAPM proves the theory and the beta test results goes against the standard theory.  </p>

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