scholarly journals System Dynamic Approach to Support Decision in Maintaining Water Availability (Case Study in Aek Silang Sub-Watershed, the Lake of Toba)

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irwan Valentinus Sihotang ◽  
S Sudarmadji ◽  
Ig.L. Setyawan Purnama ◽  
Muhammad Baiquni
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Actual Condition ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Availability Analysis ◽  
Rainfall Change

Water availability is immensely affected by the correlation among land use change, rainfall change, and population growth. One of analysis tools to discover how the correlation goes on in a hydrological process is by dynamic modelling approaching. The dynamic modelling result can be used for a substructure in decisions making as supports to maintain water availability for fulfilling domestic needs, agriculture, and Micro-Hydro Power (MHP). The aims of this study are to evaluate water availability as a long-term impact on land use change, rainfall change, and population growth with dynamic modelling and as a scenario which is required as basic information to make decisions in maintaining water availability. Analysis method which is applied in this study is dynamic modelling to long term evaluate water availability and validate using Mean Average Percentage Error method (MAPE). The analysis showed that the combination of rainfall of 2312.09 mm/yr, rainfall intensity of 0.340 mm/h, population growth rate of 7.23%, declined forest area of 1.513 ha/yr, declined shrub/unproductive land of 318.113 ha/yr, increased agricultural land of 7.627 ha/yr, and increased settlement area of 0.473 ha/yr, yielded the estimation of the fail in sustaining water sources in 2090 or the next 79 years from 2011 since the water deficit has reached approximately 3,249,881.02 m3. The value of validation modelling with MAPE method is 8.90, it is a dynamic modelling which is managed nearly the same with actual condition.

scholarly journals Toward a Dualistic Growth? Population Increase and Land-Use Change in Rome, Italy

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 749
Author(s):  
Leonardo Bianchini ◽  
Gianluca Egidi ◽  
Ahmed Alhuseen ◽  
Adele Sateriano ◽  
Sirio Cividino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Per Capita

The spatial mismatch between population growth and settlement expansion is at the base of current models of urban growth. Empirical evidence is increasingly required to inform planning measures promoting urban containment in the context of a stable (or declining) population. In these regards, per-capita indicators of land-use change can be adopted with the aim at evaluating long-term sustainability of urbanization processes. The present study assesses spatial variations in per-capita indicators of land-use change in Rome, Central Italy, at five years (1949, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2016) with the final objective of quantifying the mismatch between urban expansion and population growth. Originally specialized in agricultural productions, Rome’s metropolitan area is a paradigmatic example of dispersed urban expansion in the Mediterranean basin. By considering multiple land-use dynamics, per-capita indicators of landscape change delineated three distinctive waves of growth corresponding with urbanization, suburbanization, and a more mixed stage with counter-urbanization and re-urbanization impulses. By reflecting different socioeconomic contexts on a local scale, urban fabric and forests were identified as the ‘winner’ classes, expanding homogeneously over time at the expense of cropland. Agricultural landscapes experienced a more heterogeneous trend with arable land and pastures declining systematically and more fragmented land classes (e.g., vineyards and olive groves) displaying stable (or slightly increasing) trends. The continuous reduction of per-capita surface area of cropland that’s supports a reduced production base, which is now insufficient to satisfy the rising demand for fresh food at the metropolitan scale, indicates the unsustainability of the current development in Rome and more generally in the whole Mediterranean basin, a region specialized traditionally in (proximity) agricultural productions.

scholarly journals Multi-Temporal Built-Up Grids of Brazilian Cities: How Trends and Dynamic Modelling Could Help on Resilience Challenges?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 748
Author(s):  
Iana Rufino ◽  
Slobodan Djordjević ◽  
Higor Costa de Brito ◽  
Priscila Barros Ramalho Alves
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Urban Models ◽  
Extreme Hazards

The northeastern Brazilian region has been vulnerable to hydrometeorological extremes, especially droughts, for centuries. A combination of natural climate variability (most of the area is semi-arid) and water governance problems increases extreme events’ impacts, especially in urban areas. Spatial analysis and visualisation of possible land-use change (LUC) zones and trends (urban growth vectors) can be useful for planning actions or decision-making policies for sustainable development. The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) produces global spatial information, evidence-based analytics, and knowledge describing Earth’s human presence. In this work, the GHSL built-up grids for selected Brazilian cities were used to generate urban models using GIS (geographic information system) technologies and cellular automata for spatial pattern simulations of urban growth. In this work, six Brazilian cities were selected to generate urban models using GIS technologies and cellular automata for spatial pattern simulations of urban sprawl. The main goal was to provide predictive scenarios for water management (including simulations) and urban planning in a region highly susceptible to extreme hazards, such as floods and droughts. The northeastern Brazilian cities’ analysis raises more significant challenges because of the lack of land-use change field data. Findings and conclusions show the potential of dynamic modelling to predict scenarios and support water sensitive urban planning, increasing cities’ coping capacity for extreme hazards.

scholarly journals CH4and N2O fluxes in the Colorado shortgrass steppe: 2. Long-term impact of land use change

1997 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Mosier ◽  
W. J. Parton ◽  
D. W. Valentine ◽  
D. S. Ojima ◽  
D. S. Schimel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Shortgrass Steppe ◽  
N2o Fluxes ◽  
Long Term Impact

The Effects of Long‐Term Land‐Use Change on Soil Properties in Perth, Ontario Canada

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trina Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
North America ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Organic Matter Content ◽  
Matter Content ◽  
Topographic Gradients

Land‐use change can have a major impact on soil properties, leading to long‐term changes in soilnutrient cycling rates and carbon storage. While a substantial amount of research has been conducted onland‐use change in tropical regions, empirical evidence of long‐term conversion of forested land toagricultural land in North America is lacking. Pervasive deforestation for the sake of agriculturethroughout much of North America is likely to have modified soil properties, with implications for theglobal climate. Here, we examined the response of physical, chemical and biological soil properties toconversion of forest to agricultural land (100 years ago) on Roebuck Farm near Perth, Ontario, Canada.Soil samples were collected at three sites from under forest and agricultural vegetative cover on bothhigh‐ and low‐lying topographic positions (12 locations in total; soil profile sampled to a depth of 40cm).Our results revealed that bulk density, pH, and nitrate concentrations were all higher in soils collectedfrom cultivate sites. In contrast, samples from forested sites exhibited greater water‐holding capacity,porosity, organic matter content, ammonia concentrations and cation exchange capacity. Many of these characteristics are linked to greater organic matter abundance and diversity in soils under forestvegetation as compared with agricultural soils. Microbial activity and Q10 values were also higher in theforest soils. While soil properties in the forest were fairly similar across topographic gradients, low‐lyingpositions under agricultural regions had higher bulk density and organic matter content than upslopepositions, suggesting significant movement of material along topographic gradients. Differences in soilproperties are attributed largely to increased compaction and loss of organic matter inputs in theagricultural system. Our results suggest that the conversion of forested land cover to agriculture landcover reduces soil quality and carbon storage, alters long‐term site productivity, and contributes toincreased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

Response of phosphorus fractions to land-use change followed by long-term fertilization in a sub-alpine humid soil of Qinghai–Tibet plateau

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 1109-1119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaolei Sun ◽  
Meng Li ◽  
Guoxi Wang ◽  
Marios Drosos ◽  
Fulai Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Phosphorus Fractions ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

scholarly journals Warming increases carbon and nutrient fluxes from sediments in streams across land use

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 1193-1207 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-W. Duan ◽  
S. S. Kaushal
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Sulfate Reduction ◽  
Organic Matter Content ◽  
Soluble Reactive Phosphorus ◽  
Overlying Water ◽  
Sediment Fluxes ◽  
Urban Sites

Abstract. Rising water temperatures due to climate and land use change can accelerate biogeochemical fluxes from sediments to streams. We investigated impacts of increased streamwater temperatures on sediment fluxes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and sulfate. Experiments were conducted at 8 long-term monitoring sites across land use (forest, agricultural, suburban, and urban) at the Baltimore Ecosystem Study Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Over 20 yr of routine water temperature data showed substantial variation across seasons and years. Lab incubations of sediment and overlying water were conducted at 4 temperatures (4 °C, 15 °C, 25 °C, and 35 °C) for 48 h. Results indicated: (1) warming significantly increased sediment DOC fluxes to overlying water across land use but decreased DOC quality via increases in the humic-like to protein-like fractions, (2) warming consistently increased SRP fluxes from sediments to overlying water across land use, (3) warming increased sulfate fluxes from sediments to overlying water at rural/suburban sites but decreased sulfate fluxes at some urban sites likely due to sulfate reduction, and (4) nitrate fluxes showed an increasing trend with temperature at some forest and urban sites but with larger variability than SRP. Sediment fluxes of nitrate, SRP and sulfate were strongly related to watershed urbanization and organic matter content. Using relationships of sediment fluxes with temperature, we estimate a 5 °C warming would increase mean sediment fluxes of SRP, DOC and nitrate-N across streams by 0.27–1.37 g m−2 yr−1, 0.03–0.14 kg m−2 yr−1, and 0.001–0.06 kg m−2 yr−1. Understanding warming impacts on coupled biogeochemical cycles in streams (e.g., organic matter mineralization, P sorption, nitrification, denitrification, and sulfate reduction) is critical for forecasting shifts in carbon and nutrient loads in response to interactive impacts of climate and land use change.

scholarly journals Soil microbial community dynamics and assembly under long-term land use change

2017 ◽  
Vol 93 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Goss-Souza ◽  
Lucas William Mendes ◽  
Clovis Daniel Borges ◽  
Dilmar Baretta ◽  
Siu Mui Tsai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Microbial Community ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Microbial Community ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Soil Microbial ◽  
Microbial Community Dynamics

scholarly journals Most Mexican hummingbirds lose under climate and land-use change: Long-term conservation implications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Prieto-Torres ◽  
Laura E. Nuñez Rosas ◽  
Daniela Remolina Figueroa ◽  
María del Coro Arizmendi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Conservation Implications

Generating long-term high-resolution land-use change datasets for regional climate modeling in CORDEX domains

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Vanessa Reinhart ◽  
Christina Asmus ◽  
Edouard L. Davin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies

<p>Land-use and land cover (LULC) are continuously changing due to environmental changes and anthropogenic activities. Many observational and modeling studies show that LULC changes are important drivers altering land surface feedbacks and land-atmosphere exchange processes that have substantial impact on climate on the regional and local scale. Yet, most long-term regional climate modeling studies do not account for these changes. Therefore, within the WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study LUCAS (Land Use Change Across Scales) a new workflow was developed to generate high-resolution annual land cover change time series based on past reconstructions and future projections. First, the high-resolution global land cover dataset ESA-CCI LC (~300 m resolution) is aggregated and converted to a 0.1° resolution, fractional plant functional type (PFT) dataset. Second, the land use change information from the land-use harmonized dataset (LUH2), provided at 0.25° resolution as input for CMIP6 experiments, is translated into PFT changes employing a newly developed land use translator (LUT). The new LUT was first applied to the EURO-CORDEX domain. The resulting LULC maps for past and future - the LUCAS LUC dataset - can be applied as land use forcing to the next generation RCM simulations for downscaling CMIP6 by the EURO-CORDEX community and in the framework of FPS LUCAS. The dataset includes land cover and land management practices changes important for the regional and local scale such as urbanization and irrigation. The LUCAS LUC workflow is applied to further CORDEX domains, such as Australasia and North America. The resulting past and future land cover changes will be presented, and challenges regarding the application of the new workflow to different regions will be addressed. In addition, issues related to the implementation of the dataset into different RCMs will be discussed.</p>

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