scholarly journals Validation of Canproj for projecting Canadian cancer incidence data

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (9) ◽  
pp. 267-280
Author(s):  
Alain Demers ◽  
Zhenguo Qiu ◽  
Ron Dewar ◽  
Amanda Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Cancer Control ◽  
Real Data ◽  
R Package ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Automatic Model Selection ◽  
Validation Measure ◽  
Cancer Incidence Data

Introduction Cancer projections can provide key information to help prioritize cancer control strategies, allocate resources and evaluate current treatments and interventions. Canproj is a cancer-projection tool that builds on the Nordpred R-package by adding a selection of projection models. The objective of this project was to validate the Canproj R-package for the short-term projection of cancer rates. Methods We used national cancer incidence data from 1986 to 2014 from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System and Canadian Cancer Registry. Cross-validation was used to estimate the accuracy of the projections generated by Canproj and relative bias (RB) was used as validation measure. The Canproj automatic model selection decision tree was also assessed. Results Five of the six models had mean RB between 5% and 10% and median RB around 5%. For some of the cancer sites that were more difficult to project, a shorter time period improved reliability. The Nordpred model was selected 79% of the time by Canproj automatic model selection although it had the smallest RB only 24% of the time. Conclusion The Canproj package was able to provide projections that closely matched the real data for most cancer sites.

scholarly journals Projection of future cancer incidence and new cancer cases in Manitoba, 2006–2025

2011 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Nowatzki ◽  
B Moller ◽  
A Demers
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Tobacco Prevention ◽  
Cohort Model ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Administrative Planning ◽  
Cancer Incidence Data ◽  
Expected Increase

Introduction Projecting the burden of cancer is important for evaluating prevention strategies and for administrative planning at cancer facilities. Methods We projected cancer incidence and counts for the population of Manitoba using population projections from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics for the years 2006 to 2025 and cancer incidence data from the Manitoba Cancer Registry for the years 1976 to 2005. Data were analyzed using a version of the age-period-cohort model with recommended modifications that was developed and tested in the Nordic countries. Results The overall incidence of cancer in Manitoba is not projected to change substantially from 2006 to 2025. However, the age-standardized incidence for lung cancer is expected to decrease, particularly for males, highlighting the importance of tobacco prevention. The total number of new cancer cases per year is expected to increase 36% over the projection period, attributable primarily to demographic changes. Conclusion As the population of Manitoba increases, resource and infrastructure planning will need to account for the expected increase in cancer cases.

Influence of the dramatic fall of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) prescription on postmenopausal breast cancer incidence: The Austrian data

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1529-1529
Author(s):  
G. Pfeiler ◽  
C. Glatz ◽  
R. Königsberg ◽  
C. Vutuc ◽  
E. Kubista ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Postmenopausal Women ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Hormone Receptor ◽  
Breast Cancer Incidence ◽  
Postmenopausal Breast Cancer ◽  
Receptor Expression ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Cancer Incidence Data ◽  
Dramatic Fall

1529 Background: The Women's Health Initiative trial showed a significant increase in breast cancer risk among women using HRT. This publication led to a dramatic fall in HRT prescription worldwide. Several studies argued that the ensuing decline in breast cancer incidence among postmenopausal women was due to the reduced HRT prescriptions. We have investigated whether the strong decline in HRT prescription in Austrian women from 2002 onward was associated with a decrease in postmenopausal breast cancer incidence in Austria. Methods: Breast cancer incidence data were obtained from the National Austrian Cancer Registry. HRT prescription data were calculated using Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data. Hormone receptor expression data were taken from the pathology report of all patients with breast cancer, who were operated on at the Division of Special Gynecology, as well as the Department of Surgery, Medical University of Vienna (MUW), from 1998 to 2000, and 2005 to 2007, respectively. Chi-Square test was used to identify significant differences. Results: HRT prescription slightly increased from 1998 to 2000, but dramatically decreased by 70% after 2003, reaching a significantly lower level. When comparing breast cancer incidence data from 1999 and 2004, a nonsignificant trend toward a decreased incidence in 50- to 54-year-old women could be observed. Comparing predicted breast cancer incidence for 2004 with the actual incidence for 2004 in this group, a significant decrease could be demonstrated. Ten percent to 12% of all new breast cancers in Austria are treated at the MUW every year. Regarding histopathologic breast cancer parameters of patients treated at the MUW from 1998 to 2000 and 2005 to 2007, respectively, a nonsignificant decline of hormone receptor positive tumors in 50- to 54-year-old patients with breast cancer could be observed. Conclusions: The decline of HRT use in Austria is associated with a reduction in breast cancer incidence in postmenopausal women. Our data underline the association between HRT and breast cancer. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

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