scholarly journals Disaggregating Okun’s Law: A Case-Study for Macedonia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-207
Author(s):  
Danica Unevska Andonova ◽  
Magdalena Petrovska
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Intensive Growth

Abstract Okun’s law is one of the most widely-known stylized facts in the macroeconomic literature and policy. In this paper we study several aspects of Okun’s law in Macedonia between 2004 and 2016. Aggregate indicators show a link between output and unemployment that is in line with other emerging markets and regional peers. We also find that the relationship has been somewhat weaker in recent years, which might be related to the recent job-intensive growth in the wake of structural reforms after the global financial crisis and particularly the subsequent European debt crisis. When investigating whether various expenditure components of GDP may cause different unemployment reactions, an important issue that has not been sufficiently addressed in the literature, we find that domestic demand has a stronger effect. We also provide several robustness checks to our main findings, and illustrate how they might be used to improve forecasting.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nauro F. Campos ◽  
Paul De Grauwe ◽  
Yuemei Ji
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Structural reform policies move like the business cycle. There are moments when these are implemented with great fervour and others when they are put on the back burner or even dismantled. After the global financial crisis, and in particular the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, many countries were forced by creditor countries or were self-imposed to apply deep reforms to their product markets and especially to their labour markets. Now that Europe is recovering, the pressure to implement structural reforms has abated....

Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

2014 ◽  
Vol 228 ◽  
pp. R58-R64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Daly ◽  
John G. Fernald ◽  
Òscar Jordà ◽  
Fernanda Nechio
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Technological Changes ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Demand Shock ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This note examines labour market performance across countries through the lens of Okun's Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun's Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labour market policies in response to the global demand shock.

On the formation of a New Paradigm of fiscal Policy

2013 ◽  
pp. 152-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Senchagov
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Due to Russia’s exit from the global financial crisis, the fiscal policy of withdrawing windfall spending has exhausted its potential. It is important to refocus public finance to the real economy and the expansion of domestic demand. For this goal there is sufficient, but not realized financial potential. The increase in fiscal spending in these areas is unlikely to lead to higher inflation, given its actual trend in the past decade relative to M2 monetary aggregate, but will directly affect the investment component of many underdeveloped sectors, as well as the volume of domestic production and consumer demand.

Welfare Reform in Greece

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Petmesidou
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Social Investment ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Future Direction ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Large Sections

Greece developed a pension-heavy, clientelist, hybrid Mediterranean welfare state with many gaps in coverage. The global financial crisis of 2008 triggered a severe sovereign debt crisis, compelling the country to accept three bailout packages with stringent conditions as to spending cuts, privatization, and openness to international competition. Severe austerity has caused a protracted recession: the economy lost more than a quarter of its GDP between 2008 and 2015. The Mediterranean refugee crisis impacted severely on the country. New parties of the extreme left (SYRIZA) and extreme right (Golden Dawn) have gained support. SYRIZA was elected on an anti-austerity platform but failed to deliver and a fourth rescue package is under negotiation. The more likely future direction consists in an ever-tighter austerity programme with the immizeration of large sections of the population. A move towards neo-Keynesian intervention and social investment seems unlikely, given the level of debt and the bailout conditions.

scholarly journals Sugar Prices vs. Financial Market Uncertainty in the Time of Crisis: Does COVID-19 Induce Structural Changes in the Relationship?

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Pavel Kotyza ◽  
Katarzyna Czech ◽  
Michał Wielechowski ◽  
Luboš Smutka ◽  
Petr Procházka
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Relationship

Securitization of the agricultural commodity market has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, particularly in the times of financial market uncertainty and crisis. Sugar belongs to the group of important agricultural commodities. The global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a substantial increase in the stock market volatility. Moreover, the novel coronavirus hit both the sugar market’s supply and demand side, resulting in sugar stock changes. The paper aims to assess potential structural changes in the relationship between sugar prices and the financial market uncertainty in a crisis time. In more detail, using sequential Bai–Perron tests for structural breaks, we check whether the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have induced structural breaks in that relationship. Sugar prices are represented by the S&P GSCI Sugar Index, while the S&P 500 option-implied volatility index (VIX) is used to show stock market uncertainty. To investigate the changes in the relationship between sugar prices and stock market uncertainty, a regression model with a sequential Bai–Perron test for structural breaks is applied for the daily data from 2000–2020. We reveal the existence of two structural breaks in the analysed relationship. The first breakpoint was linked to the global financial crisis outbreak, and the second occurred in December 2011. Surprisingly, the COVID-19 pandemic has not induced the statistically significant structural change. Based on the regression model with Bai–Perron structural changes, we show that from 2000 until the beginning of the global financial crisis, the relationship between the sugar prices and the financial market uncertainty was insignificant. The global financial crisis led to a structural change in the relationship. Since August 2008, we observe a significant and negative relationship between the S&P GSCI Sugar Index and the S&P 500 option-implied volatility index (VIX). Sensitivity analysis conducted for the different financial market uncertainty measures, i.e., the S&P 500 Realized Volatility Index confirms our findings.

Social work mobility in Europe: a case study from Ireland

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trish Walsh ◽  
George Wilson ◽  
Erna O’Connor
Keyword(s):  
Social Work ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Worker Mobility ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk ◽  
National Governments

Social work has been viewed as one of the most nation-specific of the professions, ‘being closely tied up with national traditions, mentalities and institutions’ (Kornbeck, 2004, p 146). In addition, the political imperatives of national governments, austerity measures and managerialism drive approaches to service delivery which may supersede social work’s professional priorities. This militates against an automatic or easy transfer of professional knowledge from one country to another. In spite of this, there has been an enduring interest in developing international forms of social work that transcend national borders (Gray and Fook, 2004; Lyons et al, 2012). In this chapter, we present a case study of social worker mobility as it has evolved from the establishment of the first national social work registration body in the Republic of Ireland in 1997 with a particular focus on data from 2004-13 capturing the years leading up to, and in the aftermath of, the global financial crisis of 2008. We contrast this with the situation in Northern Ireland (NI), part of the UK and a separate and distinct political and legal entity with its own policies and practices. We draw on statistical and descriptive data provided by Irish social work registration bodies (NSWQB 1997-2011; CORU established in 2011 and NISCC, the Northern Ireland Social Care Council established in 2001) to illustrate (i) how sensitive contemporary mobility patterns are to changing economic and political factors; (ii) how rapidly patterns of mobility change and (iii) how much more mired in complexity European social work mobility is likely to be if the European project itself fractures, as is possible following the Brexit referendum vote in the UK.

scholarly journals PANDEMIC CRISIS AND ITS EFFECTS ON BULGARIAN BANKING SYSTEM’S EFFICIENCY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergana Mihaylova-Borisova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The economies are once again facing the challenges of another crisis related to the spread of coronavirus in 2020. The banking sector, being one of the main intermediaries in the economies, is also affected by the spread of the new crisis, which is different compared to the previous crises such as the global financial crisis in 2008 and the European debt crisis in 2012-2013. Still, the banking sector in Bulgaria suffers from the pandemic crisis due to decelerated growth rate of loans, provided to households and non-financial enterprises, as well as declining profits related to the narrowing spread between interest rates on loans and deposits. The pandemic crisis, which later turned into an economic one, is having a negative impact on the efficiency of the banking system. To prove the negative impact of the pandemic crisis on the efficiency of banks, the non-parametric method for measuring the efficiency, the so-called Data envelopment analysis (DEA), is used.

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