scholarly journals Application of Monetary Models of Exchange Rate Determination for Poland

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Determination ◽  
Mean Absolute Percent Error ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Monetary Models ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Application of Monetary Models of Exchange Rate Determination for PolandThe zloty/USD exchange rate is examined based on the Dornbusch model, the Bilson model, the Frenkel model, and the Frankel model. Empirical results show that the coefficient of the relative money supply is positive and significant, that the coefficient of the relative output is negative and significant, and that the Bilson model or the Frenkel model applies to Poland. Hence, the nominal exchange rate is positively affected by the relative interest rate and the relative expected inflation rate. The Balassa-Samuelson effect is confirmed in both models. The Bilson model has a smaller root mean squared error or mean absolute percent error than the Frenkel model.

scholarly journals Pengukuran Kapasitas Container Yard Menggunakan Yard Occupancy Ratio dalam Upaya Optimalisasi Penggunaan Lapangan Penumpukan Kontainer di PT XYZ

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Somadi Somadi ◽  
Intan Dewi Permatasari ◽  
Rahmi Chintia
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Moving Averages ◽  
Service Company ◽  
Percent Error ◽  
Logistics Service ◽  
Mean Absolute Percent Error ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Freight Forwarding ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

PT. XYZ is a logistics service company engaged in freight forwarding services for ships / air ships and warehousing. In its operations, the company experienced a problem, namely the flow of containers that entered the company's container yard capacity experienced overcapacity. The purpose of this study was to deter-mine the results of the measurement of container yard capacity using the yard occupancy ratio at PT. XYZ This study uses the Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR) method to determine the capacity of the container yard, while for forecasting using moving averages and exponential smoothing. Meanwhile, to calculate forecast error using mean squared error and mean absolute percent error. Based on the results of measurements made that the results of forecasting container flows for July 2019 to December 2019 amounted to 1,487 containers, 1,493 con-tainers, 1,614 containers, 1,377 containers, 1,532 containers and 1,495 contain-ers, respectively. Based on the results of the YOR analysis that scenario 3 is the best scenario compared to scenario 1 and scenario 2, because it produces a low-er YOR value, namely for July 2019 at 45%, August 2019 at 45%, September 2019 at 48%, October 2019 at 41%, November 2019 at 46% and December 2019 at 45%. This means that by using the YOR method there will be no overcapasity in the future because the YOR value does not exceed 100%.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MODEL MONETER HARGA FLEKSIBEL DALAM PENENTUAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Endri Endri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Demand Function ◽  
Actual Behavior ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Money Demand Function ◽  
Exchange Rate Determination ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Monetary Models

There are a wide variety of monetary models of exchange rate determination, all of which are outgrowth and extension of the basic flexible-price version pioneered by Frenkel (1978) and Bilson (1978). The research aims to know and prove by empiri-cal means the flexible price monetary model is relevant and advantageous to explain the fluctuation of exchange rate rupiah. The methodology involves testing first two assumption of the monetary model, namely, the price arbitrage (unified goods market) and the existence of a stable money demand function. Having these assumption held, the estimation of fluctuation in exchange rate in 1997-2005 was estimated using the flexible price monetary model developed for this purpose. Estimation of fluctuation in exchange rate suggest that the actual behavior of exchange rate in the period 1997 – 2005 is highly consistent with prediction of the flexible price monetary model. Fluctuation in exchange rate of Indonesia was largely explained by such variables as domestic money demand, domestic income and expected inflation, consistent with hypothesis of the flexible price monetary model.

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umit Bulut
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Target Output

Abstract This paper aims at specifying the determinants of 12-month ahead and 24-month ahead inflation expectations in Turkey by using monthly data from April 2006 to December 2016. Put differently, this paper tries to shed light on how inflation expectations respond to changes in past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, oil price, and EMBI in Turkey. To this end, the paper first conducts unit root tests in order to detect the order of integration of the variables. Then, the paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to examine whether there is a cointegration relationship among variables and to estimate long-run parameters. According to the findings, 12-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, and oil price and is negatively related to EMBI. Besides, 24-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate and USD/TL exchange rate and is negatively related to inflation target and EMBI. Upon its findings, the paper makes some inferences about the success of inflation targeting strategy in Turkey.

scholarly journals THE DOLLAR/EURO EXCHANGE RATE AND A COMPARISON OF MAJOR MODELS

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 199-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing ◽  
Bruno S. Sergi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Model ◽  
Percent Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Percent Error ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

This article analyzes the behaviour of the USD/EUR exchange rate based on four major models. Using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) as a criterion, the extended Mundell‐Fleming model performs best, followed by the PPP model using the relative PPI, the monetary model, the PPP model using the relative CPI, and the UIP model. The widely used log‐log form in the PPP model based on the relative PPI or CPI can be rejected at the 5% level. The insignificant coefficients or unexpected signs of some variables in the monetary and other models may pose some challenges in applications.

scholarly journals Does the Mundell-Fleming Model Apply to Malaysia's Output?

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Rate Increase ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Value ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating System ◽  
Model Apply

Based on an extended Mundell-Fleming model, this paper finds that both fiscal expansion and monetary expansion raise output in Malaysia and that a lower real interest rate, a higher stock value, a lower real oil price and a lower expected inflation rate increase output. Hence, a managed floating system with no predetermined path of the exchange rate adopted by Malaysia may lead to better outcomes than the predictions of the Mundell- Fleming model that fiscal expansion does not raise output under a floating exchange rate but increases output under a fixed exchange rate whereas monetary expansion increases output under a floating exchange rate but does not affect output under a fixed exchange rate (Mankiw, 2019).

scholarly journals Is Real Depreciation and More Government Spending Expansionary? The Case of Montenegro

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-113
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Lending Rate

AbstractEmploying an extended IS-MP-AS model to study the effects of the exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables in Montenegro, the paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro, a lower government spending-to-GDP ratio, a lower real lending rate in the Euro area, a lower lagged real oil price, a higher lagged real GDP in Germany, and a lower expected inflation rate would promote economic growth.

scholarly journals Nominal Exchange Rate Determinacy under the Threat of Currency Counterfeiting

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 256-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Gomis-Porqueras ◽  
Timothy Kam ◽  
Christopher Waller
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Liquidity Constraints ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Cost ◽  
Exchange Rate Determination

We study the endogenous choice to accept fiat objects as media of exchange and their implications for nominal exchange rate determination. We consider a two-country environment with two currencies that can be used to settle any transactions. However, currencies can be counterfeited at a fixed cost and the decision to counterfeit is private information. This induces equilibrium liquidity constraints on the currencies in circulation. We show that the threat of counterfeiting can pin down the nominal exchange rate even when the currencies are perfect substitutes, thus breaking the famous Kareken-Wallace indeterminacy result. (JEL D82, E42, F31)

Impacts of the Exchange Rate and the Global Interest Rate on Real Output for Ten Selected Latin American Countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1850253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Monetary Policy Reaction Function ◽  
Latin American Countries

This paper examines the effects of currency depreciation or appreciation, the changing global interest rate and other related macroeconomic variables on real GDP for ten selected Latin American countries, namely, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. The monetary policy reaction function is incorporated in the formulation of the model. There are several major findings. Currency depreciation hurts real GDP for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela whereas the real exchange rate and real GDP exhibit a backward-bending relationship for Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Peru, suggesting that currency depreciation increases real GDP in early years whereas currency appreciation raises real GDP in recent years. Except for Bolivia and Paraguay, a higher global interest rate reduces real GDP. Expansionary fiscal policy is effective for Argentina, Mexico and Paraguay. Except for Chile, Paraguay and Venezuela, a higher expected inflation rate reduces real GDP. Hence, currency depreciation may be contractionary or expansionary, depending upon the level of real GDP or the state of economic development.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document