scholarly journals PREDIKSI INFLOW DAN OUTFLOW UANG KARTAL DI PROVINSI BALI DENGAN METODE NEURO-FUZZY

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
I KADEK MENTIK YUSMANTARA ◽  
G.K. GANDHIADI ◽  
LUH PUTU IDA HARINI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Sliding Window ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Fuzzy Models ◽  
Religious Ceremony ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
The World

In this paper, we present a novel approach to data-driven neuro-fuzzy modeling, which aims to create accurate monthly inflow and outflow forecast of money (M0) in Bali Province. The data is monthly time series included some religious ceremony identification variables and a monthly dummy variable from January 2011 to March 2019. Well known, Bali Province has unique cultures, the only one province which Hinduism majority religion in Indonesia, and listed as top tourism destination in the world. The neuro-fuzzy models were created using ANFIS architecture and sliding window time series analysis, then simulated using walk forward validation, interpreted using MAPE, and NRMSE. Based on the simulation of the last 24 months, the model of inflow obtained MAPE 23.33% (worth considering) and NRMSE 18.68% (accurate). Meanwhile, the model of outflow obtained MAPE 19.24% (accurate) and NRMSE 8.71% (very accurate). These models and their pieces of information could assist the central bank in Bali Province to prepare cash for money (M0) outflow and managed technic for counting money (M0) inflow.

scholarly journals Did the UN convention on the rights of the child reduce child mortality around the world? An interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Tait ◽  
Abtin Parnia ◽  
Nishan Zewge-Abubaker ◽  
Wendy H. Wong ◽  
Heather Smith-Cannoy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Rights Of The Child ◽  
Reduce Child Mortality ◽  
The World

scholarly journals Impact of campaign-style delivery of routine vaccines during Intensified Mission Indradhanush in India: a controlled interrupted time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Clarke-Deelder ◽  
Christian Suharlim ◽  
Susmita Chatterjee ◽  
Logan Brenzel ◽  
Arindam Ray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Childhood Vaccination ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroductionThe world is not on track to achieve the goals for immunization coverage and equity described by the World Health Organization’s Global Vaccine Action Plan. In India, only 62% of children had received a full course of basic vaccines in 2016. We evaluated the Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a campaign-style intervention to increase routine immunization coverage and equity in India, implemented in 2017-2018.MethodsWe conducted a comparative interrupted time-series analysis using monthly district-level data on vaccine doses delivered, comparing districts participating and not participating in IMI. We estimated the impact of IMI on coverage and under-coverage (defined as the proportion of children who were unvaccinated) during the four-month implementation period and in subsequent months.FindingsDuring implementation, IMI increased delivery of thirteen infant vaccines by between 1.6% (95% CI: −6.4, 10.2%) and 13.8% (3.0%, 25.7%). We did not find evidence of a sustained effect during the 8 months after implementation ended. Over the 12 months from the beginning of implementation, IMI reduced under-coverage of childhood vaccination by between 3.9% (−6.9%, 13.7%) and 35.7% (−7.5%, 77.4%). The largest estimated effects were for the first doses of vaccines against diptheria-tetanus-pertussis and polio.InterpretationIMI had a substantial impact on infant immunization delivery during implementation, but this effect waned after implementation ended. Our findings suggest that campaign-style interventions can increase routine infant immunization coverage and reach formerly unreached children in the shorter term, but other approaches may be needed for sustained coverage improvements.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of the World Health Organization Access, Watch, and Reserve Classification to Follow Trends in Prescription of Antibiotic Use in Two Pediatric Intensive Care Units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (03) ◽  
pp. 155-160
Author(s):  
André Ricardo Araujo da Silva ◽  
Cristina Vieira de Souza Oliveira ◽  
Cristiane Henriques Teixeira ◽  
Izabel Alves Leal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Pediatric Intensive Care ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Antibiotic Consumption ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Objective The recommended percentage of antibiotic use in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) using the World Health Organization (WHO) Access, Watch, and Reserve (AWaRE) classification is not known. Methods We have conducted an interrupted time series analysis in two PICUs in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, over a period of 18 months. The type of antibiotics used was evaluated using the WHO AWaRE classification, and the amount of antibiotic was measured using days of therapy/1,000 patient-days (DOT/1000PD) after implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP). The first and last semesters were compared using medians and the Mann–Whitney's test. The trends of antibiotic consumption were performed using time series analysis in three consecutive 6-month periods. Results A total of 2,205 patients were admitted, accounting for 12,490 patient-days. In PICU 1, overall antibiotic consumption (in DOT/1000PD) was 1,322 in the first 6 months of analysis and 1,264.5 in the last 6 months (p = 0.81). In PICU 2, the consumption for the same period was 1,638.5 and 1,344.5, respectively (p = 0.031). In PICU 1, the antibiotics classified in the AWaRE groups were used 33.2, 57.9, and 8.4% of the time, respectively. The remaining 0.5% of antibiotics used were not classified in any of these groups. In PICU 2, the AWaRE groups corresponded to 30.2, 60.5, and 9.3% of all antibiotics used, respectively. There was no use of unclassified antibiotics in this unit. The use of all three groups of WHO AWaRE antibiotics was similar in the first and the last semesters, with the exception of Reserve group in PICU 2 (183.5 × 92, p = 0.031). Conclusion A significant reduction of overall antibiotic use and also in the Reserve group was achieved in one of the PICU units studied. The antibiotics classified in the Watch group were the most used in both units, representing ∼60% of all the antibiotics consumed.

scholarly journals Oil, Nontax Revenue, and the Redistributional Foundations of Regime Stability

2009 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Morrison
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Regime Stability ◽  
The World ◽  
Regime Types

AbstractNontax revenues make up a substantial amount of government revenue around the world, though scholars usually focus on individual sources of such revenue (for example, foreign aid and state-owned oil companies). Using a theory of regime change that builds on recent models of the redistributional foundations of dictatorships and democracies, I generate hypotheses regarding all nontax revenue and regime stability. I argue that an increase in nontax revenue should be associated with less taxation of elites in democracies, more social spending in dictatorships, and more stability for both regime types. I find support for all three of these hypotheses in a cross-sectional time-series analysis, covering all countries and years for which the necessary data are available. Significantly, I show that the particular source of nontax revenue does not make a difference: they all act similarly with regard to regime stability and the causal mechanisms.

scholarly journals Modelling and (adaptive) control of greenhouse climates.

1984 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.J. Udink ten Cate
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Adaptive Control ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Temperature Control ◽  
Control Process ◽  
Climate Control ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
New Algorithms

After a discussion on control of greenhouse climates, new algorithms for temperature control are presented and tested in practice. A novel approach of modelling of the climate control process is presented by using time-series analysis techniques. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

scholarly journals Temperature and mortality on the roof of the world: A time-series analysis in three Tibetan counties, China

2014 ◽  
Vol 485-486 ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Bai ◽  
Cirendunzhu ◽  
Alistair Woodward ◽  
Dawa ◽  
Xiraoruodeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World
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