scholarly journals Short term assessment and mitigation of flood risks at river basin level

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Boukalová ◽  
F. Čejka ◽  
V. Beneš
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Flood Risks

scholarly journals A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2649-2667 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firas Saleh ◽  
Venkatsundar Ramaswamy ◽  
Nickitas Georgas ◽  
Alan F. Blumberg ◽  
Julie Pullen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Hudson River ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Hurricane Irene ◽  
Hydrologic Event ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Event

Abstract. This paper investigates the uncertainties in hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts for an extreme hydrological event using a hydrological model forced with short-range ensemble weather prediction models. A state-of-the art, automated, short-term hydrologic prediction framework was implemented using GIS and a regional scale hydrological model (HEC-HMS). The hydrologic framework was applied to the Hudson River basin ( ∼  36 000 km2) in the United States using gridded precipitation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and was validated against streamflow observations from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). Finally, 21 precipitation ensemble members of the latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS/R) were forced into HEC-HMS to generate a retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrological event, Hurricane Irene. The work shows that ensemble stream discharge forecasts provide improved predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks when compared with deterministic forecasts. The uncertainties in weather inputs may result in false warnings and missed river flooding events, reducing the potential to effectively mitigate flood damage. The findings demonstrate how errors in the ensemble median streamflow forecast and time of peak, as well as the ensemble spread (uncertainty) are reduced 48 h pre-event by utilizing the ensemble framework. The methodology and implications of this work benefit efforts of short-term streamflow forecasts at regional scales, notably regarding the peak timing of an extreme hydrologic event when combined with a flood threshold exceedance diagram. Although the modeling framework was implemented on the Hudson River basin, it is flexible and applicable in other parts of the world where atmospheric reanalysis products and streamflow data are available.

Short-term concurrent drought and heatwave frequency with 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 4621-4641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqing Zhang ◽  
Qinglong You ◽  
Guangxiong Mao ◽  
Changchun Chen ◽  
Zhengwei Ye
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals Analysis of Flood Risk of Urban Agglomeration Polders Using Multivariate Copula

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqin Gao ◽  
Dongdong Wang ◽  
Zhenxing Zhang ◽  
Zhenzhen Ma ◽  
Zichen Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Flood Characteristics ◽  
Qinhuai River

Urban agglomeration polders (UAPs) are often used to control flooding in eastern China. The impacts of UAPs on individual flood events have been extensively examined, but how flood risks are influenced by UAPs is much less examined. This study aimed to explore a three-dimensional joint distribution of annual flood volume, peak flow and water level to examine UAPs’ impact on flood risks based on hydrological simulations. The dependence between pairwise hydrological characteristics are measured by rank correlation coefficients and graphs. An Archimedean Copula is applied to model the dependence structure. This approach is applied to the Qinhuai River Basin where UAPs are used proactively for flood control. The result shows that the Frank Copula can better represent the dependence structure in the Qinhuai River Basin. UAPs increase risks of individual flood characteristics and integrated risks. UAPs have a relatively greater impact on water level than the other two flood characteristics. It is noted that the impact on flood risk levels off for greater floods.

scholarly journals Application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network for Flood Forecasting

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le ◽  
Ho ◽  
Lee ◽  
Jung
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Hoa Binh

Flood forecasting is an essential requirement in integrated water resource management. This paper suggests a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model for flood forecasting, where the daily discharge and rainfall were used as input data. Moreover, characteristics of the data sets which may influence the model performance were also of interest. As a result, the Da River basin in Vietnam was chosen and two different combinations of input data sets from before 1985 (when the Hoa Binh dam was built) were used for one-day, two-day, and three-day flowrate forecasting ahead at Hoa Binh Station. The predictive ability of the model is quite impressive: The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) reached 99%, 95%, and 87% corresponding to three forecasting cases, respectively. The findings of this study suggest a viable option for flood forecasting on the Da River in Vietnam, where the river basin stretches between many countries and downstream flows (Vietnam) may fluctuate suddenly due to flood discharge from upstream hydroelectric reservoirs.

scholarly journals CHANGES OF THE HUMIDIFICATION OF VALLEY PEAT BAGS R.BOLSHAYA USSURKA (PRIMORYE) BY THE DATA OF THE DIATOMIC ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Т.Р. Макарова
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Peat Bog ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Dry Conditions

Изучение разреза торфяника в бассейне р. Большая Уссурка (Приморье) позволило выявить изменения увлажненности. Установлен период продолжительных засух, совпадавших с ослаблением летнего муссона. Несмотря на сухие условия проходили паводки, вызванные тайфунами или глубокими циклонами. Влажными были малый оптимум голоцена и малый ледниковый период, характеризовавшиеся усилением циклогенеза. Отмечены кратковременные флуктуации увлажнения, периоды с разной паводковой активностью. Study of the peat bog section in the river basin Bolshaya Ussurka (Primorye) made it possible to distinguish periods with different moisture. Period of prolonged droughts was established, coinciding with the weakening of the summer monsoon. Dry conditions did not exclude floods due to the passage of typhoons or deep cyclones. The low optimum of the Holocene and the Little Ice Age, characterized by increased cyclogenesis, were humid. Short-term fluctuations of moisture, periods with different flood activity were noted.

scholarly journals Long-Term Impacts of the 1997 Floods in the Morava River Basin

Geografie ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 105 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-154
Author(s):  
Antonín Vaishar ◽  
Pavlína Hlavinková ◽  
Karel Kirchner ◽  
Jan Lacina
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Social System ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Adverse Impacts ◽  
Technical Control ◽  
The Social ◽  
Morava River ◽  
Morava River Basin

In 1997 disastrous floods, unparalleled since meteorological and climatic measurements have been carried out, took place in the catchment of the Morava river and other Moravian rivers. The long-term impacts of the above-mentioned flood event on the landscape and society have been examined in four selected model areas with different natural and economic characteristics. Within the natural system, the long-term impacts include changes in riverbeds, landslides and changes in the biota. Within the social system, the most significant adverse impacts include the long-term damage to the psychical health of those affected by the flood. The main causes of the flood damage are connected with the formation of the settlement pattern during the period of industrialisation and urbanisation. The main methods of flood protection include the relocation of structures outside inundated areas, technical control and the adaptation to flood risks.

scholarly journals Human health in systemic adaptation to climate change: insights from flood risk management in a river basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timo Assmuth ◽  
Tanja Dubrovin ◽  
Jari Lyytimäki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Human Health ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risks

AbstractHuman health risks in dealing with floods in a river basin in South-Western Finland are analysed as an example of scientific and practical challenges in systemic adaptation to climate change and in integrated governance of water resources. The analysis is based on case reports and plans, on literature studies and on conceptual models of risks and risk management. Flood risks in the Northern European study area are aggravated by melt- and storm-water runoff, ice jams and coastal flooding. Flood risk assessment is linked with management plans based on EU directives as applied in the case area. National risk management policies and procedures of increasing scope and depth have been devised for climate change, water resources and overall safety, but an integrated approach to health risks is still largely missing. The same is true of surveys of perceived flood risks, and participatory deliberation and collaborative planning procedures for flood risk management in the case area, specifically for adaptive lake regulation. Health impacts, risks and benefits, socio-economic and systemic risks, and over-arching prevention, adaptation and compensation measures are not fully included. We propose a systematic framework for these extensions. Particular attention needs to be given to health risks due to flooding, e.g. from water contamination, moist buildings, mental stress and infrastructure damage and also from management actions. Uncertainties and ambiguities about risks present continuing challenges. It is concluded that health aspects of flooding are complex and need to be better included in assessment and control, to develop more integrated and adaptive systemic risk governance.

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