scholarly journals Using and Evaluating the Efficiency of GRIMs Model in Making Some Simulations of Weather Variables in Three Countries in Middle East: A Snowfall Case Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 4489-4502
Author(s):  
Vian Almusawi ◽  
Thaer O. Roomi ◽  
Alaa M. Al-Lami
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Snowfall Event ◽  
Snow Precipitation ◽  
First Time

    Predicting weather by numerical models have been used extensively in research works for Middle East, mostly for dust storms, rain showers, and flash floods with a less deal of interest on snow precipitation. In this study, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs) that was developed in South Korea was used to predict a rare snowfall event occurred in three countries in Middle East (Syria, Jordan and Iraq) located between (25-65 oE; 12-42 oN) in year 2008. The main aim of this study was to test GRIMs efficiency, which would be used for the first time in Middle East, to make predictions of weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and relative humidity especially in the selected area. In addition, the study would investigate the conditions that caused the snowfall event. GRIMs model was installed, compiled, and run on a Linux platform by using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset as initial conditions on 0.5 × 0.5 grid resolution to make simulations for three days at intervals of three hours. The output of the model was evaluated by making comparisons with actual data obtained from the GFS Agency dataset and the model showed its efficiency. The snowfall event was synoptically discussed in details. It was found that the snowfall event was a result of fast succession systems of a strong cold high pressure and then a deep warm low pressure. The high instability in the region had led to form large cumuliform clouds with snow precipitation as a rare event in very long period.

A Comparative Study to Quantify Sensitive Dependence in Numerical Models for a Developing Low in the Southern Plains

2010 ◽  
Vol 44-45 (2010-2011) ◽  
pp. 29-40
Author(s):  
Amy E. Schnetzler ◽  
Justin M. Glisan ◽  
H. Athar ◽  
Patrick S. Market ◽  
Anthony R. Lupo
Keyword(s):  
Chaotic Systems ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Southern Plains ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
Sensitive Dependence ◽  
Trajectory Divergence

Abstract Studies have shown that numerical models display the characteristics of chaotic systems, and that the solutions can be sensitive to the initial conditions, the model used, or the parameterizations used. Using the Kain-Fritsch, Grell, and modified Kuo convective parameterizations in the MASS and the WRF model, the results from a case study show that 48-h forecasts were not identical. Lyapunov exponents were calculated by plotting forecast trajectories in a phase diagram and estimating the rate of trajectory divergence for two time periods outside the study of the main cyclone. These calculations did show divergence at a rate which was consistent with differences in model height in 48-h forecasts from other studies. Additionally, the integrated enstrophy can be used to estimate the Lyapunov value. Finally, a qualitative analysis comparing various model runs (pseudo-ensemble) was performed to determine if there were regions or areas where consistent differences in the runs existed between the indexes used for forecasting convective precipitation. Results demonstrated that the region of the southeast United States associated with the developing cyclone showed the most significant differences in these indexes and for heights and temperatures. The differences in the model forecasts between convective parameterizations (intramodel forecasts) in this case were not as great as the model-to-model forecast differences (intermodel forecasts).

The radioactivity of seasonal dust storms in the Middle East: the May 2012 case study in Jordan

2015 ◽  
Vol 140 ◽  
pp. 65-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed S. Hamadneh ◽  
Zaid Q. Ababneh ◽  
Khadeejeh M. Hamasha ◽  
Anas M. Ababneh
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Dust Storms

Press Propaganda and Subaltern Agents of Pan-Islamic Networks in the Muslim Mediterranean World prior to World War I

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odile Moreau
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
World War I ◽  
North Africa ◽  
World War ◽  
Subaltern Studies ◽  
Resistance Movements ◽  
The Press ◽  
Mediterranean World ◽  
History Of

This chapter explores movement and circulation across the Mediterranean and seeks to contribute to a history of proto-nationalism in the Maghrib and the Middle East at a particular moment prior to World War I. The discussion is particularly concerned with the interface of two Mediterranean spaces: the Middle East (Egypt, Ottoman Empire) and North Africa (Morocco), where the latter is viewed as a case study where resistance movements sought external allies as a way of compensating for their internal weakness. Applying methods developed by Subaltern Studies, and linking macro-historical approaches, namely of a translocal movement in the Muslim Mediterranean, it explores how the Egypt-based society, al-Ittihad al-Maghribi, through its agent, Aref Taher, used the press as an instrument for political propaganda, promoting its Pan-Islamic programme and its goal of uniting North Africa.

Islamic and Jewish Religious Feminists Tackle Islamic and Jewish Oral Law: Maintenance and Rebellion of Wives

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-63
Author(s):  
Ruth Roded
Keyword(s):  
State Policy ◽  
Political System ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Jewish Law ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
Parallel Case ◽  
First Time

Beginning in the early 1970s, Jewish and Muslim feminists, tackled “oral law”—Mishna and Talmud, in Judaism, and the parallel Hadith and Fiqh in Islam, and several analogous methodologies were devised. A parallel case study of maintenance and rebellion of wives —mezonoteha, moredet al ba?ala; nafaqa al-mar?a and nush?z—in classical Jewish and Islamic oral law demonstrates similarities in content and discourse. Differences between the two, however, were found in the application of oral law to daily life, as reflected in “responsa”—piskei halacha and fatwas. In modern times, as the state became more involved in regulating maintenance and disobedience, and Jewish law was backed for the first time in history by a state, state policy and implementation were influenced by the political system and socioeconomic circumstances of the country. Despite their similar origin in oral law, maintenance and rebellion have divergent relevance to modern Jews and Muslims.

Fracture Modelling Using Seismic Based Fracture Intensity Volume, a Case Study in Middle East

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mu Hansheng ◽  
Liu Chuanxi ◽  
Li Peng ◽  
Pang Huihua
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Fracture Intensity

SEISMIC RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES: CASE STUDY ON A BLACK CARBON PLANT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Karagiannakis
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Industrial Plants ◽  
Plant Equipment

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.

Битвазапрошлое:храмсвятогоГеоргия вИзраавэпицентре церковно-политическойборьбыконцаXIXв.

2019 ◽  
pp. 256-281
Author(s):  
E.M. Kopot`
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Ottoman Empire ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Russian Empire ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Late 19Th Century ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Russian Empire ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Church

The article brings up an obscure episode in the rivalry of the Orthodox and Melkite communities in Syria in the late 19th century. In order to strengthen their superiority over the Orthodox, the Uniates attempted to seize the church of St. George in Izraa, one of the oldest Christian temples in the region. To the Orthodox community it presented a threat coming from a wealthier enemy backed up by the See of Rome and the French embassy. The only ally the Antioch Patriarchate could lean on for support in the fight for its identity was the Russian Empire, a traditional protector of the Orthodox Arabs in the Middle East. The documents from the Foreign Affairs Archive of the Russian Empire, introduced to the scientific usage for the first time, present a unique opportunity to delve into the history of this conflict involving the higher officials of the Ottoman Empire as well as the Russian embassy in ConstantinopleВ статье рассматривается малоизвестный эпизод соперничества православной и Мелкитской общин в Сирии в конце XIX века. Чтобы укрепить свое превосходство над православными, униаты предприняли попытку захватить церковь Святого Георгия в Израа, один из старейших христианских храмов в регионе. Для православной общины он представлял угрозу, исходящую от более богатого врага, поддерживаемого Римским престолом и французским посольством. Единственным союзником, на которого Антиохийский патриархат мог опереться в борьбе за свою идентичность, была Российская Империя, традиционный защитник православных арабов на Ближнем Востоке. Документы из архива иностранных дел Российской Империи, введены в научный оборот впервые, уникальная возможность углубиться в историю этого конфликта с участием высших должностных лиц в Османской империи, а также российского посольства в Константинополе.

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