META-ANALYSIS ON AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - 2016 AND AMERICAN STOCK MARKET

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farhan Ahmed ◽  
Salman Bahoo ◽  
Sohail Aslam ◽  
Muhammad Asif Qureshi

This paper aims to analyze the efficient stock market hypothesis as responsive to American Presidential Election, 2016. The meta-analysis has been done combining content analysis and event study methodology. The all major newspapers, news channels, public polls, literature and five important indices as Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), NASDAQ Stock Market Composit Indexe (NASDAQ-COMP), Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX-500), New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYSE-COMP) and Other U.S Indexes-Russell 2000 (RUT-2000) are critically examined and empirically analyzed. The findings from content analysis reflect that stunned winning of Mr Trump from Republican Party worked as shock for American stock market. From event study, findings confirmed that all the major indices reflected a decline on winning of Trump and losing of Ms. Clinton from Democratic. The results are supported empirically and practically through the political event like BREXIT that resulted in shock to Global stock index and loss of $2 Trillion.

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anhar Fauzan Priyono

Rapid integration between domestic and world economy in the last decade has been a major issue. For Indonesia, the situation has been accelerated by the adoption of floating exchange rate regime in 1997, also with the development of Indonesia stock exchange. One notable financial variable that often exposed to external shocks is stock market index. This research will analyzed the behavior of 3 major stock market indices in ASEAN, those are Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), Kuala Lumpur stock index (KLSE), and Singapore stock index (STI). The employment of volatility model is chosen to figured the behavior of those 3 indices, and to analyze the aggregate investment in each stock market. Observation will be based upon monthly basis, from 2010 until 2015.The findings in this research are (i) similarity in the movement behavior of ASEAN-3 stock market indices, (ii) Indonesia stock market shows the highest aggregate investment return relative to Malaysia and Singapore, (iii) Singapore stock market shows the lowest aggregate investment risk relative to Indonesia and Malaysia, as the representation of more developed stock market.


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulyono Mulyono

Stock market generally has the stock price index that measures the performance of stock trading, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has a stock price index that is widely known as Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG). During its development, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has many alternative indexes that measure the performance of stock trading. Research that is to be conducted on the correlation between return of the stock index listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange and return of Jakarta Composite Index. Return stock index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely, LQ45 Index, Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), KOMPAS100 Index, BISNIS-27 Index, PEFINDO25 Index and SRI-KEHATI Index, has a close relationship with the return Jakarta Composite,Index which is a reflection of the movement of all existing stock in the market. Return of stocks index that have the highest coefficient correlation is KOMPAS100 In dex, which have return index coefficient correlation is 0.949, thus KOMPAS100 Index that consisting of 100 stocks, based on the results of the study can be used as an alternative investment to get a return that is at least equal or close to the yield given by Jakarta Composite Index(IHSG) that consists of 445 stocks


Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 1612
Author(s):  
Yuxuan Xiu ◽  
Guanying Wang ◽  
Wai Kin Victor Chan

This study proposes a framework to diagnose stock market crashes and predict the subsequent price rebounds. Based on the observation of anomalous changes in stock correlation networks during market crashes, we extend the log-periodic power-law model with a metric that is proposed to measure network anomalies. To calculate this metric, we design a prediction-guided anomaly detection algorithm based on the extreme value theory. Finally, we proposed a hybrid indicator to predict price rebounds of the stock index by combining the network anomaly metric and the visibility graph-based log-periodic power-law model. Experiments are conducted based on the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index from 4 January 1991 to 7 May 2021. It is shown that our proposed method outperforms the benchmark log-periodic power-law model on detecting the 12 major crashes and predicting the subsequent price rebounds by reducing the false alarm rate. This study sheds light on combining stock network analysis and financial time series modeling and highlights that anomalous changes of a stock network can be important criteria for detecting crashes and predicting recoveries of the stock market.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 332-346
Author(s):  
Divya Aggarwal ◽  
Pitabas Mohanty

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of Indian investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns of Bombay Stock Exchange, National Stock Exchange and various sectoral indices in India by developing a sentiment index. Design/methodology/approach The study uses principal component analysis to develop a sentiment index as a proxy for Indian stock market sentiments over a time frame from April 1996 to January 2017. It uses an exploratory approach to identify relevant proxies in building a sentiment index using indirect market measures and macro variables of Indian and US markets. Findings The study finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the sentiment index and stock index returns. Sectors which are more dependent on institutional fund flows show a significant impact of the change in sentiments on their respective sectoral indices. Research limitations/implications The study has used data at a monthly frequency. Analysing higher frequency data can explain short-term temporal dynamics between sentiments and returns better. Further studies can be done to explore whether sentiments can be used to predict stock returns. Practical implications The results imply that one can develop profitable trading strategies by investing in sectors like metals and capital goods, which are more susceptible to generate positive returns when the sentiment index is high. Originality/value The study supplements the existing literature on the impact of investor sentiments on contemporaneous stock returns in the context of a developing market. It identifies relevant proxies of investor sentiments for the Indian stock market.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pyemo N. Afego ◽  
Imhotep P. Alagidede

PurposeThis paper explores how a firm's public stand on a social-political issue can be a salient signal of the firm's values, identity and reputation. In particular, it investigates how boycott participation–conceptualized as a cue of a corporation's stand on important social-political issues–may affect the stock market valuation of that corporation, as well as how corporations legitimise their stand on the issues.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a mixed-methods design that uses both qualitative techniques (content analysis) and quantitative methods (event study methodology) to examine a sample of US firms who participated in a boycott campaign that sought to call attention to issues of hate speech, misinformation and discriminatory content on social media platform Facebook.FindingsFindings from the qualitative content analysis of company statements show that firms legitimise their stand on, and participation in, the boycott by expressing altruistic values and suggesting to stakeholders that their stand aligns not only with organizational values/convictions but also with the greater social good. Importantly, the event study results show that firms who publicly announced their intention to participate in the boycott, on average, earn a statistically significant positive abnormal stock return of 2.68% in the four days immediately after their announcements.Research limitations/implicationsFindings relate to a specific case of a boycott campaign. Also, the sample size is limited and restricted to US stocks. The signalling value of corporate social advocacy actions may vary across countries due to institutional and cultural differences. Market reaction may also be different for issues that are more charged than the ones examined in this study. Therefore, future research might investigate other markets, use larger sample sizes and consider a broader range of social-political issues.Practical implicationsThe presence of significant stock price changes for firms that publicly announced their decision to side with activists on the issue of hate propaganda and misinformation offers potentially valuable insights on the timing of trades for investors and arbitrageurs. Insights from the study also provide a practical resource that can be used to inform organizations' decision-making about such issues.Social implicationsTaking the lead to push on social-political issues, such as hate propaganda, discrimination, among others, and communicating their stands in a way that speaks to their values and identity, could be rewarding for companies.Originality/valueThis study provides novel evidence on the impact that corporate stances on important social-political issues can have on stock market valuation of firms and therefore extends the existing related research which until now has focused on the impact on consumer purchasing intent and brand loyalty.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-202
Author(s):  
Yadi Nurhayadi ◽  
Daram Heriansyah ◽  
Eva Susanti ◽  
Siti Azizziah Azzahra

The research confirm the differences between sharia company stock index and conventional company stock index as the issuer at The Indonesia Stock Exchange. This research is a continuation of a series of previous studies by Nurhayadi et al earlier on the comparison between the sharia market and the conventional market. The Data consist of Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) Composite Index (Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG)), Jakarta Stock Exchange Liquid Index (LQ45), Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), ten companies of sharia issuer, and ten companies of conventional issuer. There are seven scenarios based on bivariate and multivariate analysis that conducted regression, correlation, and determination test to know whether conventional company influence on sharia company. The research scenarios cover five years data from January 2014 to December 2018. The result confirms that the fluctuation of conventional issuer's stocks is different from the fluctuation of sharia issuer's stocks. Conventional issuers have a weak correlation with sharia issuers. This condition implies that between the conventional market and the Islamic market there is no correlation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 148
Author(s):  
Widodo Widodo

ABSTRACTThe aims of this research is to analyze the influence of NIKKEI 225 Index (^N225), HANG SENG Index (^HSI), KOSPI Index (^KS11), Strait Times Index (^STI), and Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (^KLSE) simultaneously and partially in Jakarta Composite Index (^JKSE) during 2009 to 2017. Method of multiple linier regression with significant level 0,05 using STATA 10 program. The populations and samples was used this research is stock index on ASIA regional (NIKKEI 225 (Japan), HANG SENG Index (Hongkong), KOSPI (South Korea), Strait Times Index (Singapore), Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (Malaysia), and Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia)) was conducted during January 2009 to May 2017. Results of this research simultaneously model for all independent variables are influence to dependent variable. However, parcially model ^N225, ^KS11 and ^KLSE variables positive and significant influence to ^JKSE variable. Whereas ^HSI and ^STI variable are not effect to ^JKSE variable during January 2009 to May 2017.Keywords: JKSE; N225; HSI; KS11; STI; KLSE.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
A.E. Osuala ◽  
U.A. Onoh ◽  
G.U. Nwansi

The study investigates the effect of Presidential election results on the performance of an emerging stock market using the case of the 2011 and 2015 Presidential elections in Nigeria. Adopting Event Study methodology to analyse the secondary data obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and some national dailies, the results of the study suggest that the 2011 presidential election result had negative significant impact on the performance of the stock market. On the other hand, the 2015 Presidential election result had positive but insignificant impact on the stock market as evidenced by the average and cumulative abnormal returns on the event date and one day post-event date- an indication that the result of the 2015 Presidential election was a welcomed development as leadership changed from PDP to All Progressives Congress (APC).


2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-88
Author(s):  
Mochammad Chabachib

The calculation of beta stock in Indonesia is still debatable to this day. Though many researchers who have used sophisticated methods mathematically, the assumptions applied in developing the methods are impossible to happen in the real world, such as the ability of stock market return the day after (lead) affects the market return today. This study was conducted to assess the stock price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange that can be used as a proxy of stock market in Indonesia. The results of this study showed that there was a gap between beta stocks counted with JCI return as a market proxy with beta stocks counted with index returns of LQ-45, SRI-KEHATI, PEFINDO-25, BISNIS-27, IDX-30 and KOMPAS-100. This study has also found that the beta counted by using KOMPAS-100 return produced the smallest standard error of the estimate (SEE) that it was more applicable compared to the other stock index returns.


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