scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic variables on the credit provided by Saudi Banks: تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على التمويل المصرفي في المملكة العربية السعودية (دراسة قياسية شملت البيانات من 1970م – 2012م)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyas Jafar Abdel Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables of the Saudi economy as in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Expenditure (G), Economic Openness (OPE), Inflation Rate (CPI) and the Bank Deposits (DS) on the credit provided by Saudi banks (BF), on annual time series data between 1970-2012. To investigate this relationship, the study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) to measure the long-run and short-run impact, At that the E-views 8.1 has been used for analyze the cointegration,the diagnostic, the reliability - stability tests, and the forecasting behavior of the model. The study found that (BF) is affected positively by (GDP) growth rate in the long-run. Also the (BF) has been affected negatively in the short and long-run by inflation rates (CPI) and government expenditure (G). Consequently the Contractionary Fiscal Policy in recent period will not lead to reduce the financial performance of Saudi banks, and the growth of (GDP) in the future will have positive impact on the financing capacity of the Saudi banking sector.

Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enock Mwakalila
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Private Sector Development ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically analyzes the impact of government expenditure and domestic borrowing on credit to the private sector in Tanzania by increasing lending rates. Quarterly time series data are collected from 2004 to 2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short- and long-run relationships, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The result shows that government expenditure and domestic borrowing crowd out credit to the private sector by increasing the lending rate in the long run. This calls for the Tanzanian government to reduce some of its deficit spending and domestic borrowing, and instead look for another way to increase the tax revenue using loans from external sources to fund its budget deficit. Also, the study recommends that the government should put more effort on improving private sector development by making the country an easy place to do business, which in turn will increase the tax base through corporate tax and income tax from business employees.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Manufacturing Sector Value Added in Ethiopia: An Application of Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagim Tadesse Bekele ◽  
Meskerem Teka Haile
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

The role of the manufacturing sector for the economic growth and structural change is very low in Ethiopia and performing less compering with that of the other sectors in the economy. So, this research tried to look at how different macroeconomic variables affect the manufacturing sector value added by using annual time series data from 1982 to 2018 estimated by Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL). The result from the Bound test shows manufacturing sector value added has a long-run relationship with macroeconomic variables in the model. In the long-run, general inflation rate, exchange rate, and trade openness have a significant negative effect on the manufacturing sector value-added. In contrast, general government expenditure has a significant positive effect. Also, the Error Correction model shows an adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium of the manufacturing sector value-added. So, the government has to control the general inflation level, promote demand for domestic manufacturing products and competitiveness of domestic firms, and strengthen the backward link of the sector to decrease its import-input dependency to reduce the effect of exchange rate depressions. Lastly, effective and efficient government expenditure will have to be used to increase the manufacturing sector value-added.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS THE IMPACT OF SUBSIDY ON RICE PRODUCTION IN MUDA IRRIGATION AREA

2019 ◽  
pp. 73-83
Author(s):  
Nor Asmat Ismail ◽  
Zulkifli Abdul Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Irrigation Area ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Subsidy Scheme ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Muda Irrigation Area is one of the main rice granaries in Malaysia and is the largest contributor to the country's rice production. It receives the highest subsidies from the government through various types of the rice subsidy scheme. Various efforts and approaches have been implemented through government expenditure (rice subsidy scheme) to ensure that Muda area continues to produce rice for the country. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of rice subsidy scheme given by the government on the changes in production and income of farmers in the Muda area. Among the subsidy schemes are minimum guaranteed prices, rice subsidy scheme and fertilizer subsidy scheme. Independent variables such as rice plantation areas and the number of labors (farmers) have been included in the model. This study focuses on the effect of subsidy scheme on paddy production by applying cointegration test and correction errors according to Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to validate the existence and direction of the relationship between all variables by using time series data 37 years (1980-2016). The results showed that there was a long-run relationship (cointegration) between government expenditure (rice subsidy scheme) on rice production in the Muda Area. The study suggests that government intervention, need to be continued but needs to be transformed so that the rice industry become more competitive and able to become producers and exporters of rice to foreign countries.

scholarly journals Ageing Population and Economic Growth: Evidence from Malaysia

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Shairilizwan Taasim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Employment Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Development Expenditure ◽  
The Impact

This main purpose of this article investigated the impact of ageing population on economic growth in Malaysia. Annual time series data for 27-year duration (1990-2017) was used and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) was applied. This study will focuses on addressing role of ageing population in Malaysia by context that failed to receive much attention especially in employment sector. By using Romer [1] endogenous theory, the cointegration result revealed that exists a long run relationship exists between ageing population in Malaysia government development expenditure in education and economic growth. Our analysis recommends further investment in government expenditure in education sector to achieving higher human capital capability as a towards high income country and ageing phenomena.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

scholarly journals The impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on profitability of Islamic rural bank in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sanusi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank (BPRS) in Indonesia. Using monthly time series data from January 2010 - December 2018. The estimation model used is a vector error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results showed that CAR and LnTA had a significant positive relationship, while NPF, BOPO and IPI had a negative and significant relationship to the profitability of Islamic rural banks. But FDR and Inflation variables are not significantly related to the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results leave implications for policy makers, investors and banking sector managers. Based on evidence that bank profitability is more influenced by internal banks (as specific as banks), this research can help Islamic rural banks to help them understand which factors are important to be analyzed to obtain higher profitability.

scholarly journals BANKING SECTOR LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najia SAQIB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The Impact

Economic theory suggests that sound and efficient financial systems channel capitals to its most productive uses are beneficial for economic growth. Sound and efficient financial systems are especially important for sustaining growth in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of banking sector liberalization on long-term economic growth in Pakistan by using a time series data for the period 1971–2011. The results show that there exist a significant positive long run relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in the country. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the relationship remain positive and significant no matter what combination of the omitted variables are used in the basic model. Thus, our findings support the core idea that banking sector development stimulates long term economic growth in a country.

scholarly journals The Impact of Globalization on Human Development Index: A Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adiqa Kiani ◽  
Noor Mohammad ◽  
Raheem Bux Soomro
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The main objective of the study is to explore the short and long run relationship of globalization and human development index for 34 years during 1980 to 2014. In order to analyze economic, social and political dimensions of globalization separately for Pakistan economy. The time series data compiled from various sources including UNDP annual Human Development Reports, SPDC Social Development report, Pakistan Review 2005-06, World Bank and KOF. A semi-log model was used to explain the relationship, whereas some other models were also used to test the mobility of the variables. The test applied is ADF test and on the basis of ADF test results, the ARDL method of co integration was used to test long run impact of all independent variables on human development index. From the findings, we may conclude that globalization overall and social, political and economic globalization have positive impact on human development index for Pakistan, whereas some control variables like population density effects positively, and greenhouse gas emissions significantly and negatively affect the globalization. It is suggested that in order to improve the globalization, it is mandatory to focus on indirect effects of globalization and make necessary plans to reduce such emissions.

scholarly journals The impact of economic growth on unemployment in South Africa: 1994 – 2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-707
Author(s):  
Handson Banda ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

One of the most pressing problems facing the South African economy is unemployment, which has been erratic over the past few years. This study examined the impact of economic growth on unemployment, using quarterly time series data for South Africa for the period 1994 to 2012.Johansen Co-integration reflected that there is stable and one significant long run relationship between unemployment and the explanatory variables that is economic growth (GDP), budget deficit (BUG), real effective exchange rate (REER) and labour productivity (LP). The study utilized Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effects of macroeconomic variables thus REER, LP, GDP and BUG on unemployment in South Africa. The results of VECM indicated that LP has a negative long run impact on unemployment whilst GDP, BUG and REER have positive impact. The study resulted in the following policy recommendation: South African government should re-direct its spending towards activities that directly and indirectly promote creation of employment and decent jobs; a conducive environment and flexible labour market policies or legislations without impediments to employment creation should be created; and lastly government should prioritise industries that promote labour intensive. All this will help in absorbing large pools of the unemployed population thereby reducing unemployment in South Africa.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic variables and banking sector development: Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 288-301
Author(s):  
Ojo Johnson Adelakun ◽  
Babatunde Afolabi ◽  
Uwasejike B Abuh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Bound Test

The study assessed the relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Development in the Nigerian Banking Sector using annual time series data. Models were specified using Ratio of Credits to Private Sector to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Banking Sector Development. At the same time, GDP growth rate, Poverty, Exchange Rate, Oil Price, Poverty, Money Supply, Inflation, and Interest rates were the selected Macroeconomic Variables used in the study. Data used were sourced from the Statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for various editions and estimated using ARDL Bound Test and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). The study found that there exists a long-run relationship between Macroeconomic Variables selected and Banking Sector Development. The VECM coefficients revealed that all variables except Interest Rates have negative effects on Banking Sector Development. The VECM (-1), which showed the speed of adjustment, was rightly signed and significant, indicating a long-run causality relationship running from macroeconomic variables to banking sector development. The Impulse response from restricted VAR revealed that Banking Sector responded to the Macroeconomic Variables of which GDPGR and INT were transmitting negatively to Banking Sector Development while others were transmitting positive impulses. However, the variance decomposition found that oil price, followed by GDPGR and poverty, caused more variation in Banking Sector Development. In contrast, inflation and money supply caused the least variation in Banking Sector Development. The study, therefore, concluded that selected Macroeconomic Variables have a significant long-run relationship with Banking Sector Development. It is therefore recommended, among others that, Macroeconomic indicators should be well monitored and controlled using macroeconomic instruments promptly since when they are well managed would lead to a better developed Banking Sector in Nigeria.

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