scholarly journals Inflation expectations and consumer spending: the role of household balance sheets (RM/19/022-revised)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lieb Lenard ◽  
Schuffels Johannes
2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 26-36
Author(s):  
A. V. Topilin ◽  
A. S. Maksimova

The article reflects the results of a study of the impact of migration on regional labour markets amidst a decline in the working-age population in Russia. After substantiating the relevance of the issues under consideration, the authors propose a methodological analysis toolkit, the author’s own methodology for calculating the coefficients of permanent long-term external and internal labour migration in regional labour markets, and the coefficient of total migration burden. In addition, the authors provide an overview of the information and statistical base of the study. According to current migration records, data of Rosstat sample surveys on Russian labour migrants leaving for employment in other regions, regional labour resources balance sheets based on the calculated coefficients of labour market pressures, the authors analyzed the impact of migration on the Russian regional labour markets over the past decade. It revealed an increasing role of internal labour migration in many regions, primarily in the largest economic agglomerations and oil and gas territories. At the same time, the role of external labour migration remains stable and minimum indicators of the contribution of permanent migration to the formation of regional labour markets continue to decrease. It has been established that irrational counter flows of external and internal labour migration have developed, which indicates not only an imbalance in labour demand and supply but also a discrepancy between the qualitative composition of migrants and the needs of the economy. It is concluded that the state does not effectively regulate certain types of migration, considering its impact on the labour market. The authors justified the need for conducting regular household sample surveys according to specific programs to collect information about labour migrants and the conditions for using their labour. In addition to the current migration records, using interregional analysis, this information allows making more informed decisions at the federal and regional levels to correct the negative situation that has developed in the regional labour markets even before the coronavirus pandemic had struck.


2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 368-383
Author(s):  
King Yin Wong ◽  
Michael Lynn

Purpose The extant literature has mixed results regarding the credit card cue effect. Some showed that credit card cues stimulate spending, whereas others were unable to replicate the findings or found that cues discourage consumer spending. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how consumers’ sensitivity to the pain of payment affects their mental associations about credit cards and how the differences in credit card associations moderate the credit card cue effect on spending, providing a possible explanation for the mixed results in the literature. Furthermore, this paper examines the role of consumers’ perceived financial well-being, measured by their perceptions of current and future wealth and their sense of financial security, in mediating this moderation effect. Design/methodology/approach An experimental study was conducted with a sample of 337 participants to test the hypothesized model. Findings After being shown credit card cues, spendthrift participants had more spending-related thoughts and less debt-related thoughts, perceived themselves as having better financial well-being and consequently spent more than tightwad participants. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the direct link between an exposure to credit card cues and perceived financial well-being, and one of the few to show evidence of the moderating effect of consumers’ sensitivity to the pain of payment on spending when credit card cues are present. This study suggests that marketers may use credit card cues to promote consumer spending, whereas consumers, especially spendthrifts, should be aware of how credit card cues may inflate their perceived financial well-being and stimulate them to spend more.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-208
Author(s):  
Lucilla Bittucci ◽  
Stefano Marzioni ◽  
Pina Murè ◽  
Marco Spallone

This study investigates the main factors driving the evolution of the securitization of loans to Italian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The value of securitization increased in last two years, even though it has not been used as collateral for central banks. The disposal of non-performing loans (NPLs) may have been rather triggered by increasing attention of the international institutions to such an issue, within the general purpose of financial stability. The purpose of this paper is to interpret such a phenomenon focusing on Italian banks and restricting the analysis to the case of securitizations backed with loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The interesting result that emerges, supported by econometrically tested empirical evidence, is that given the orientation of international financial institutions, such as the ECB and the EBA, and reacting to incentives coming from the fiscal policy authorities for the public guarantee of loans, banks have been using securitization to reduce the burden on their bad balance sheets due to (NPLs). It was found that the public guarantee had a positive impact on SME securitization, whereas securitization in other sectors has not been affected significantly. Such evidence suggests that, in the absence of a public guarantee, the financial stability target would have been at risk, and the effectiveness of collateral-based policies in the recent past must be improved to enhance access to credit for SMEs.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haeyoung Jeong ◽  
Siddharth Bhatt ◽  
Hongjun Ye ◽  
Jintao Zhang ◽  
Rajneesh Suri

PurposeWith a decrease in consumer spending during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many retailers are offering price reductions to stimulate demand. However, little is known about how consumers perceive such price reductions executed during turbulent times. The authors examine whether the timing of price reductions and individual differences impact consumers' evaluations of the retailers offering such reductions.Design/methodology/approachUsing a longitudinal design, the authors inquire into four retailers' motives that consumers may infer from a price decrease at two different times during the COVID-19 crisis.FindingsThe authors find that the timing of price reductions plays a key role in shaping consumers' inference of retailers' motives. The authors also uncover individual characteristics that affect consumers' inferences.Originality/valueThis research advances the literature by demonstrating the critical role of timing and individual characteristics in consumers' perceptions of price reductions during times of crisis. The authors findings also provide retailers with actionable insights for their pricing strategies. The findings may be generalizable to other types of crises that may arise in the future.


2020 ◽  
pp. 19-44
Author(s):  
Nicole Baerg

This chapter starts by tracing trends in central bank transparency. It reports key policy changes by some of the world’s most important central banks: the FOMC, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. The second section reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on central bank design, paying close attention to the role of committee size, composition, and decision-making protocol, and classifies central banks around the world according to these features. The third section outlines the aim of central bank communications: to broadcast news and to reduce noise. The author argues that while previous literature has examined both committee design and central bank communications, it has done so in isolation. By putting these two topics together, the chapter argues that we can better understand, first, how different types of committees may be better at communicating and, second, how communication affects households’ inflation expectations and inflation.


2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 830-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Eickmeier ◽  
Boris Hofmann

This paper applies a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to U.S. data with the aim of analyzing monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads, and house prices and of exploring the role of monetary policy in the housing and credit boom prior to the global financial crisis. We find that monetary policy shocks have a persistent effect on house prices, real estate wealth, and private sector debt and a strong short-lived effect on risk spreads in money and mortgage markets. Moreover, the results suggest that monetary policy contributed considerably to the unsustainable precrisis developments in housing and credit markets. Although monetary policy shocks contributed discernibly at a late stage of the boom, feedback effects of other (macroeconomic and financial) shocks via lower policy rates kicked in earlier and appear to have been considerable.


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dieter Helm

Abstract The paper considers whether water privatization 30 years ago has delivered the promised superior performance to nationalization, which remains the dominant model in Europe. The paper sets out the arguments at privatization, in particular in relation to efficiency, the managerial incentives, the role of private-sector balance sheets in facilitating investment, and the impacts on the cost of capital. Alternative explanations of relative performance, notably the regulation model adopted, are highlighted, and the paper concludes by outlining an alternative model of water regulation which better marries up public responsibilities and private incentives.


2011 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 741-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didem Kurt ◽  
J. Jeffrey Inman ◽  
Jennifer J. Argo

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