scholarly journals Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SA Stephens ◽  
RG Bell ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Adaptive Planning ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Flooding Frequency ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Trigger Decision

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) is emerging as a 'fit-for-purpose' method for climate-change adaptation planning to address widening future uncertainty and long planning timeframes. A key component of DAPP is to monitor indicators of change such as flooding and storm events, which can trigger timely adaptive actions (change pathway/behavior) ahead of thresholds. Signals and triggers are needed to support DAPP - the signal provides early warning of the emergence of the trigger (decision-point), and the trigger initiates the process to change pathway before a harmful adaptation-threshold is reached. We demonstrate a new approach to designing signals and triggers using the case of increased flooding as sea level continues to rise. The flooding frequency is framed in terms of probable timing of several events reaching a specific height threshold within a set monitoring period. This framing is well suited to adaptive planning for different hazards, because it allows the period over which threshold exceedances are monitored to be specified, and thus allows action before adaptation-thresholds are reached, while accounting for the potential range of timing and providing a probability of premature warning, or of triggering adaptation too late. For our New Zealand sea level case study, we expect early signals to be observed in 10 year monitoring periods beginning 2021. Some urgency is therefore required to begin the assessment, planning and community engagement required to develop adaptive plans and associated signals and triggers for monitoring. Worldwide, greater urgency is required at tide-dominated sites than those adapted to large storm-surges. Triggers can be designed with confidence that a change in behavior pathway (e.g. relocating communities) will be triggered before an adaptation-threshold occurs. However, it is difficult to avoid the potential for premature adaptation. Therefore, political, social, economic, or cultural signals are also needed to complement the signals and triggers based on coastal-hazard considerations alone.

scholarly journals Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SA Stephens ◽  
RG Bell ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Adaptive Planning ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Flooding Frequency ◽  
Fit For Purpose ◽  
Trigger Decision

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) is emerging as a 'fit-for-purpose' method for climate-change adaptation planning to address widening future uncertainty and long planning timeframes. A key component of DAPP is to monitor indicators of change such as flooding and storm events, which can trigger timely adaptive actions (change pathway/behavior) ahead of thresholds. Signals and triggers are needed to support DAPP - the signal provides early warning of the emergence of the trigger (decision-point), and the trigger initiates the process to change pathway before a harmful adaptation-threshold is reached. We demonstrate a new approach to designing signals and triggers using the case of increased flooding as sea level continues to rise. The flooding frequency is framed in terms of probable timing of several events reaching a specific height threshold within a set monitoring period. This framing is well suited to adaptive planning for different hazards, because it allows the period over which threshold exceedances are monitored to be specified, and thus allows action before adaptation-thresholds are reached, while accounting for the potential range of timing and providing a probability of premature warning, or of triggering adaptation too late. For our New Zealand sea level case study, we expect early signals to be observed in 10 year monitoring periods beginning 2021. Some urgency is therefore required to begin the assessment, planning and community engagement required to develop adaptive plans and associated signals and triggers for monitoring. Worldwide, greater urgency is required at tide-dominated sites than those adapted to large storm-surges. Triggers can be designed with confidence that a change in behavior pathway (e.g. relocating communities) will be triggered before an adaptation-threshold occurs. However, it is difficult to avoid the potential for premature adaptation. Therefore, political, social, economic, or cultural signals are also needed to complement the signals and triggers based on coastal-hazard considerations alone.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Denmark: A Case Study of Falster Island, Guldborgsund

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7503
Author(s):  
Alexander Boest-Petersen ◽  
Piotr Michalak ◽  
Jamal Jokar Arsanjani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Local Levels

Anthropogenically-induced climate change is expected to be the contributing cause of sea level rise and severe storm events in the immediate future. While Danish authorities have downscaled the future oscillation of sea level rise across Danish coast lines in order to empower the coastal municipalities, there is a need to project the local cascading effects on different sectors. Using geospatial analysis and climate change projection data, we developed a proposed workflow to analyze the impacts of sea level rise in the coastal municipalities of Guldborgsund, located in Southeastern Denmark as a case study. With current estimates of sea level rise and storm surge events, the island of Falster can expect to have up to 19% of its landmass inundated, with approximately 39% of the population experiencing sea level rise directly. Developing an analytical workflow can allow stakeholders to understand the extent of expected sea level rise and consider alternative methods of prevention at the national and local levels. The proposed approach along with the choice of data and open source tools can empower other communities at risk of sea level rise to plan their adaptation.

scholarly journals Extreme storm surges in the south of Brazil: atmospheric conditions and shore erosion

2009 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 175-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cláudia Klose Parise ◽  
Lauro Júlio Calliari ◽  
Nisia Krusche
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Beach Erosion ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
The South ◽  
Level Elevation ◽  
South Of Brazil

The region under study is regularly subject to the occurrence of storms associated with frontal systems and extratropical cyclones, since it is located near one of the cyclogenetic regions in South America. These storms can generate storm surges that cause anomalous high sea level rises on Cassino Beach. The use of reanalysis data along with an efficient technique for the location of the cyclone, using a vorticity threshold, has provided a new classification based upon the trajectories of events that produce positive sea level variation. Three patterns have been identified: 1) Cyclogenesis to the south of Argentina with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 47.5ºS and 57.5ºS; 2) Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 35ºS and 42.5ºS; and 3) Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the southeast and a trajectory between 35ºS and 57.5ºS. Maximum water level elevation above the mean sea level and beach erosion were associated, respectively, with winter and summer storms. Cassino beach displayed a seasonal morphological behavior, with short periods of episodic erosion associated with winter storm events followed by long periods of accretion characterized by the dominance of fair weather conditions.

scholarly journals Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 433
Author(s):  
Christoffer Carstens ◽  
Karin Mossberg Sonnek ◽  
Riitta Räty ◽  
Per Wikman-Svahn ◽  
Annika Carlsson-Kanyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Legal Constraints ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
Municipal Level

The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome.

scholarly journals Application of a Coastal Vulnerability Index. A Case Study along the Apulian Coastline, Italy

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Pantusa ◽  
Felice D’Alessandro ◽  
Luigia Riefolo ◽  
Francesca Principato ◽  
Giuseppe Tomasicchio
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Physical Process ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Posidonia Oceanica ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability Index ◽  
Beach Width ◽  
Accretion Rates

The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) is a popular index in literature to assess the coastal vulnerability of climate change. The present paper proposes a CVI formulation to make it suitable for the Mediterranean coasts; the formulation considers ten variables divided into three typological groups: geological; physical process and vegetation. In particular, the geological variables are: geomorphology; shoreline erosion/accretion rates; coastal slope; emerged beach width and dune width. The physical process variables are relative sea-level change; mean significant wave height and mean tide range. The vegetation variables are width of vegetation behind the beach and posidonia oceanica. The first application of the proposed index was carried out for a stretch of the Apulia region coast, in the south of Italy; this application allowed to (i) identify the transects most vulnerable to sea level rise, storm surges and waves action and (ii) consider the usefulness of the index as a tool for orientation in planning strategies. For the case study presented in this work, the most influential variables in determining CVI are dune width and geomorphology. The transects that present a very high vulnerability are characterized by sandy and narrow beaches (without dunes and vegetation) and by the absence of Posidonia oceanica.

scholarly journals BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS OF A COUPLED WAVE-SURGE MODEL FOR AUSTRALIAN EXTREMES

2020 ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Yasha Hetzel ◽  
Ivica Janekovic ◽  
Charitha Pattiaratchi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Breaking Waves ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coupled Wave

Extreme sea levels result from a combination of a range of factors that include long term mean sea level variability, astronomical tides, storm surges due to atmospheric pressure and wind, wave breaking, and other regional dynamics. Numerical circulation/storm-surge models are frequently used to predict water levels over broad areas with the outputs used for planning or emergency management applications. Recently, coupled wave-circulation models have been shown to improve extreme sea level predictions through the inclusion of wave setup that results from the transfer of momentum of breaking waves into sea level at the shoreline. Other studies have shown that the representations of surface wind drag can be improved when the sea state is considered, and this can directly influence the amplitude of storm surges at the coast. However, most coupled wave-circulation model studies have been undertaken for relatively small computational domains and for a limited range of coastal morphologies and storm types. In this paper we assess the benefits and limitations of using a coupled wave-circulation model to predict extreme sea levels and determine wave effects for a broad range of coastal morphologies and extreme storm events all around Australia. Simulated events occurred in three oceans and considered tropical cyclones, a cyclone undergoing extratropical transition, and a large mid-latitude extratropical low-pressure system.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/UfyWHI4OHBA

NUMERICAL MODELING OF STORM SURGES, WIND WAVES AND FLOODING IN THE TAGANROG BAY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Vladimir Fomin ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Alekseev ◽  
Dmitrii Lazorenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Extreme Storm ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Model ◽  
Sea Level Oscillations ◽  
Flooding And Drying ◽  
Flooded Area ◽  
Taganrog Bay

Storm surges and wind waves are ones of the most important hydrological characteristics, which determine dynamics of the Sea of Azov. Extreme storm surges in Taganrog Bay and flooding in the Don Delta can be formed under the effect of strong western winds. In this work the sea level oscillations and wind waves in the Taganrog Bay were simulated by means of the coupled SWAN+ADCIRC numerical model, taking into account the flooding and drying mechanisms. The calculations were carried out on an unstructured mesh with high resolution. The wind and atmospheric pressure fields for the extreme storm from 20 to 28 of September, 2014 obtained from WRF regional atmospheric model were used as forcing. The analysis of simulation results showed the following. The western and northern parts of the Don Delta were the most flood-prone during the storm. The size of the flooded area of the Don Delta exceeded 50%. Interaction of storm surge and wind wave accelerated the flooding process, increased the size of the flooded area and led to the intensification of wind waves in the upper of Taganrog Bay due to the general rise of the sea level.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document