scholarly journals Deglacial climate and ice sheet evolution of the Ross Embayment, Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Daniel P. Lowry
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Grounding Line

<p>Reconstructing past grounding-line evolution can help inform future sea level projections by constraining marine ice sheet sensitivities to changes in climate. The Ross Embayment, the largest sector of Antarctica, experienced substantial grounding-line retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum. However, different interpretations for the timing and spatial pattern of deglacial grounding-line retreat in this region persist, suggesting either very high or low sensitivity to external forcings. Complicating matters is the sparse paleoclimate record, which is limited spatially and temporally. In this thesis, I address these issues by analysing the output of two transient climate simulations in relation to Antarctic ice core and marine sediment records, and performing and analysing the largest ensemble to date of regional ice sheet model simulations of the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea. The climate models and paleoclimate proxy records exhibit key differences in the timing, magnitude and duration of millennial-scale climate change events through the deglacial period. Using this diverse set of deglacial climate trajectories as ocean and atmosphere forcings, the ice sheet model ensemble produces a wide range of ice sheet responses, supporting the view that external forcings are the main drivers of past grounding-line retreat in the region. The simulations demonstrate that atmospheric conditions early in the deglacial period can enhance or diminish ice sheet sensitivity to rising ocean temperatures, thereby controlling the initial timing and spatial pattern of grounding-line retreat. Through the Holocene, grounding-line position is more sensitive to sub-shelf melt rates as the ocean cavity below the ice shelf expands. Model parameters that control the physical properties of the bed, deformation of the continental shelf, and rheological properties of the ice strongly influence the sensitivity of ice sheets to external forcing. Basin-wide differences in these forcings, driven by oceanic and atmospheric circulation, and spatial heterogeneity of bed properties likely contribute to the asynchronous pattern of retreat in the eastern and western parts of the embayment, as indicated by marine and terrestrial proxy records.</p>

scholarly journals Deglacial climate and ice sheet evolution of the Ross Embayment, Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Daniel P. Lowry
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Grounding Line

<p>Reconstructing past grounding-line evolution can help inform future sea level projections by constraining marine ice sheet sensitivities to changes in climate. The Ross Embayment, the largest sector of Antarctica, experienced substantial grounding-line retreat since the Last Glacial Maximum. However, different interpretations for the timing and spatial pattern of deglacial grounding-line retreat in this region persist, suggesting either very high or low sensitivity to external forcings. Complicating matters is the sparse paleoclimate record, which is limited spatially and temporally. In this thesis, I address these issues by analysing the output of two transient climate simulations in relation to Antarctic ice core and marine sediment records, and performing and analysing the largest ensemble to date of regional ice sheet model simulations of the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea. The climate models and paleoclimate proxy records exhibit key differences in the timing, magnitude and duration of millennial-scale climate change events through the deglacial period. Using this diverse set of deglacial climate trajectories as ocean and atmosphere forcings, the ice sheet model ensemble produces a wide range of ice sheet responses, supporting the view that external forcings are the main drivers of past grounding-line retreat in the region. The simulations demonstrate that atmospheric conditions early in the deglacial period can enhance or diminish ice sheet sensitivity to rising ocean temperatures, thereby controlling the initial timing and spatial pattern of grounding-line retreat. Through the Holocene, grounding-line position is more sensitive to sub-shelf melt rates as the ocean cavity below the ice shelf expands. Model parameters that control the physical properties of the bed, deformation of the continental shelf, and rheological properties of the ice strongly influence the sensitivity of ice sheets to external forcing. Basin-wide differences in these forcings, driven by oceanic and atmospheric circulation, and spatial heterogeneity of bed properties likely contribute to the asynchronous pattern of retreat in the eastern and western parts of the embayment, as indicated by marine and terrestrial proxy records.</p>

scholarly journals Deglacial grounding-line retreat in the Ross Embayment, Antarctica, controlled by ocean and atmosphere forcing

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (8) ◽  
pp. eaav8754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel P. Lowry ◽  
Nicholas R. Golledge ◽  
Nancy A. N. Bertler ◽  
R. Selwyn Jones ◽  
Robert McKay
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Geological Data ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Environmental Forcing ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
Low Sensitivity

Modern observations appear to link warming oceanic conditions with Antarctic ice sheet grounding-line retreat. Yet, interpretations of past ice sheet retreat over the last deglaciation in the Ross Embayment, Antarctica’s largest catchment, differ considerably and imply either extremely high or very low sensitivity to environmental forcing. To investigate this, we perform regional ice sheet simulations using a wide range of atmosphere and ocean forcings. Constrained by marine and terrestrial geological data, these models predict earliest retreat in the central embayment and rapid terrestrial ice sheet thinning during the Early Holocene. We find that atmospheric conditions early in the deglacial period can enhance or diminish ice sheet sensitivity to rising ocean temperatures, thereby controlling the initial timing and spatial pattern of grounding-line retreat. Through the Holocene, however, grounding-line position is much more sensitive to subshelf melt rates, implicating ocean thermal forcing as the key driver of past ice sheet retreat.

scholarly journals Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1459-1474
Author(s):  
Andreas Wernecke ◽  
Tamsin L. Edwards ◽  
Isabel J. Nias ◽  
Philip B. Holden ◽  
Neil R. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Principal Components ◽  
Statistical Treatment ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Thickness Change ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. Probabilistic predictions of the sea level contribution from Antarctica often have large uncertainty intervals. Calibration of model simulations with observations can reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in projections, particularly if this exploits as much of the available information as possible (such as spatial characteristics), but the necessary statistical treatment is often challenging and can be computationally prohibitive. Ice sheet models with sufficient spatial resolution to resolve grounding line evolution are also computationally expensive. Here we address these challenges by adopting and comparing dimension-reduced calibration approaches based on a principal component decomposition of the adaptive mesh model BISICLES. The effects model parameters have on these principal components are then gathered in statistical emulators to allow for smooth probability density estimates. With the help of a published perturbed parameter ice sheet model ensemble of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), we show how the use of principal components in combination with spatially resolved observations can improve probabilistic calibrations. In synthetic model experiments (calibrating the model with altered model results) we can identify the correct basal traction and ice viscosity scaling parameters as well as the bedrock map with spatial calibrations. In comparison a simpler calibration against an aggregated observation, the net sea level contribution, imposes only weaker constraints by allowing a wide range of basal traction and viscosity scaling factors. Uncertainties in sea level rise contribution of 50-year simulations from the current state of the ASE can be reduced with satellite observations of recent ice thickness change by nearly 90 %; median and 90 % confidence intervals are 18.9 [13.9, 24.8] mm SLE (sea level equivalent) for the proposed spatial calibration approach, 16.8 [7.7, 25.6] mm SLE for the net sea level calibration and 23.1 [−8.4, 94.5] mm SLE for the uncalibrated ensemble. The spatial model behaviour is much more consistent with observations if, instead of Bedmap2, a modified bedrock topography is used that most notably removes a topographic rise near the initial grounding line of Pine Island Glacier. The ASE dominates the current Antarctic sea level contribution, but other regions have the potential to become more important on centennial scales. These larger spatial and temporal scales would benefit even more from methods of fast but exhaustive model calibration. Applied to projections of the whole Antarctic ice sheet, our approach has therefore the potential to efficiently improve our understanding of model behaviour, as well as substantiating and reducing projection uncertainties.

Gaussian Process emulation of multi-model ice sheet and glacier projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin Edwards ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Gaussian Process Emulation ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Global Mean

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted with ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios (SSPs), nor with coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects (ISMIP6 and GlacierMIP) generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but mostly used previous generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections for the SSPs using Gaussian Process emulation of the ice sheet and glacier model ensembles. We model the sea level contribution as a function of global mean surface air temperature forcing and (for the ice sheets) model parameters, with the 'nugget' allowing for multi-model structural uncertainty. Approximate independence of ice sheet and glacier models is assumed, because a given model responds very differently under different setups (such as initialisation). &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;We find that limiting global warming to 1.5&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;#176;&lt;strong&gt;C &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;would halve the land ice contribution to 21&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; century &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;sea level rise&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;, relative to current emissions pledges: t&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;he median decreases from 25 to 13 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100. However, the Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to emissions scenario, due to competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions for climate and Antarctic ice sheet model selection and ice sheet model parameter values, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 cm SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; percentile exceeding half a metre even under 1.5&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;#176;&lt;strong&gt;C warming. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Gaussian Process emulation can therefore be a powerful tool for estimating probability density functions from multi-model ensembles and testing the sensitivity of the results to assumptions.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 9045-9102 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. F. Ivanovic ◽  
L. J. Gregoire ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
D. M. Roche ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Working Group ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Before Present ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Core Simulation

Abstract. The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21–9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given, but no ice sheet or iceberg meltwater should be prescribed in the Core simulation. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will focus on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part.

scholarly journals Unprecedented Clear Skies Drove Remarkable Melting in Greenland

Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Thomasy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Impact

Scientists are concerned that current climate models do not fully account for the impact of atmospheric conditions on the Greenland Ice Sheet and, consequently, may dramatically underestimate melting.

scholarly journals Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (25) ◽  
pp. 12261-12269 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Nordhaus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost–benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics.

scholarly journals Evaluating multi-year, multi-site data on the energy balance closure of eddy-covariance flux measurements at cropland sites in southwestern Germany

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravshan Eshonkulov ◽  
Arne Poyda ◽  
Joachim Ingwersen ◽  
Hans-Dieter Wizemann ◽  
Tobias K. D. Weber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Eddy Covariance ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Energy Balance Closure ◽  
Prevailing Wind ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Prevailing Wind Direction ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. The energy balance of eddy-covariance (EC) measurements is typically not closed, resulting in one of the main challenges in evaluating and interpreting EC flux data. Energy balance closure (EBC) is crucial for validating and improving regional and global climate models. To investigate the nature of the gap in EBC for agroecosystems, we analyzed EC measurements from two climatically contrasting regions (Kraichgau – KR – and Swabian Jura – SJ) in southwestern Germany. Data were taken at six fully equipped EC sites from 2010 to 2017. The gap in EBC was quantified by ordinary linear regression, relating the energy balance ratio (EBR), calculated as the quotient of turbulent fluxes and available energy, to the residual energy term. In order to examine potential reasons for differences in EBC, we compared the EBC under varying environmental conditions and investigated a wide range of possible controls. Overall, the variation in EBC was found to be higher during winter than summer. Moreover, we determined that the site had a statistically significant effect on EBC but no significant effect on either crop or region (KR vs SJ). The time-variable footprints of all EC stations were estimated based on data measured in 2015, complimented by micro-topographic analyses along the prevailing wind direction. The smallest mean annual energy balance gap was 17 % in KR and 13 % in SJ. Highest EBRs were mostly found for winds from the prevailing wind direction. The spread of EBRs distinctly narrowed under unstable atmospheric conditions, strong buoyancy, and high friction velocities. Smaller footprint areas led to better EBC due to increasing homogeneity. Flow distortions caused by the back head of the anemometer negatively affected EBC during corresponding wind conditions.

scholarly journals Submarine melt as a potential trigger of the North East Greenland Ice Stream margin retreat during Marine Isotope Stage 3

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1911-1923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Tabone ◽  
Alexander Robinson ◽  
Jorge Alvarez-Solas ◽  
Marisa Montoya
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
North East ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Oceanic Forcing ◽  
Marine Isotope Stage 3

Abstract. The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) has been suffering a significant ice mass loss during the last decades. This is partly due to increasing oceanic temperatures in the subpolar North Atlantic, which enhance submarine basal melting and mass discharge. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of this region to oceanic changes. In addition, a recent study suggested that the NEGIS grounding line was 20–40 km behind its present-day location for 15 ka during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. This is in contrast with Greenland temperature records indicating cold atmospheric conditions at that time, expected to favour ice-sheet expansion. To explain this anomalous retreat a combination of atmospheric and external forcings has been invoked. Yet, as the ocean is found to be a primary driver of the ongoing retreat of the NEGIS glaciers, the effect of past oceanic changes in their paleo evolution cannot be ruled out and should be explored in detail. Here we investigate the sensitivity of the NEGIS to the oceanic forcing during the last glacial period using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet–shelf model. We find that a sufficiently high oceanic forcing could account for a NEGIS ice-margin retreat of several tens of kilometres, potentially explaining the recently proposed NEGIS grounding-line retreat during Marine Isotope Stage 3.

Evaluation of a new snow albedo scheme in RACMO2 for the Greenland ice sheet

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiaan van Dalum ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Stef Lhermitte ◽  
Michiel van den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Snow Albedo ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Snow And Ice

&lt;p&gt;Snow and ice albedo schemes in present day climate models often lack a sophisticated radiation penetration scheme and are limited to a broadband albedo. In this study, we evaluate a new snow albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2 that uses the two-stream radiative transfer in snow model TARTES and the spectral-to-narrowband albedo module SNOWBAL for the Greenland ice sheet. Additionally, the bare ice albedo parameterization has been updated. The snow and ice albedo output of the updated version of RACMO2, referred to as RACMO2.3p3, is evaluated using PROMICE and K-transect in-situ data and MODIS remote-sensing observations. Generally, the RACMO2.3p3 albedo is in very good agreement with satellite observations, leading to a domain-averaged bias of only -0.012. Some discrepancies are, however, observed for regions close to the ice margin. Compared to the previous iteration RACMO2.3p2, the albedo of RACMO2.3p3 is considerably higher in the bare ice zone during the ablation season, as atmospheric conditions now alter the bare ice albedo. For most other regions, however, the albedo of RACMO2.3p3 is lower due to spectral effects, radiation penetration, snow metamorphism or a delayed firn-ice transition. Furthermore, a white-out effect during cloudy conditions is captured and the snow albedo shows a low sensitivity to low soot concentrations. The surface mass balance of RACMO2.3p3 compares well with observations. Subsurface heating, however, now leads to increased melt and refreezing in south Greenland, changing the snow structure.&lt;/p&gt;

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