scholarly journals Variabilidade Espaco-Temporal da Precipitação na Amazônia durante Eventos ENOS (Spatio-temporal Variability of Precipitation in the Amazon during ENOS Events)

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 013
Author(s):  
Adriano Marlison Sousa ◽  
Edson José Paulino da Rocha ◽  
Maria Isabel Vitorino ◽  
Paulo Jorge Oliveira Ponte de Souza ◽  
Marcel Nascimento Botelho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Condition ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Difference

As relações entre o ENOS e a precipitação na Amazônia são analisadas num contexto espacial e temporal. Para isso, foram utilizados os dados mensais de precipitação de 238 estações distribuídas nos estados do Amazonas, Amapá, Pará e Maranhão, no período de 1920 a 2011. A identificação dos eventos de El Niño e La Niña foi feita através da análise dos campos de anomalias de precipita-ção, e foi aplicada a transformada em Ondeleta Morlet para a caracterização de todas as oscilações presentes no sinal da precipitação para o período estudado. Os resultados mostram que a distribuição espacial das anomalias positivas e negativas é bastante heterogênea, devido às interações das diferentes dimensões de tempo e escala do fenômeno ENOS e das condições de superfície da Ama-zônia. A diferença entre os eventos de El-Niño de 1982/83 e 1997/98 está relacionado à maior atua-ção em área com anomalias negativas, causando uma redução na precipitação no leste da Amazônia. Observou-se que os eventos de ENOS foram modulados por oscilações de precipitações de múlti-plas escala de tempo, tais como: decadal, interdecadal, anual e intrasazonal. Já as oscilações intrasa-zonais estiveram relacionas apenas ao evento de La-Niña 1984/85.  A B S T R A C T This study examined the relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Amazon in a spatial and temporal. For this, we used the monthly data of precipitation of 238 stations distributed in the states of Amazonas, Amapá, Pará and Maranhão (period 1970 – 2011). For the analysis of data were made calculations of anomalies of precipitation, to identify the events of El Niño and La Niña, and application of the Wavelet Transform into Morlet to the characterization of oscillations in the sign of precipitation. The results show that the spatial distribution of positive and negative anomalies is quite heterogeneous, because the interactions of the different dimensions of time and scale of the ENSO phenomena and the surface condition of the Amazon. The difference between the events of El Niño of 1982/83 and 1997/98, be related to increased activity in an area with negative anomalies, causing a decrease in precipitation in eastern Amazonia. It was observed that the events of ENSO have been modulated by oscillations of precipitation of multiple time scale, such as decadal, interdecadal, annual and intraseasonal. It was noted also that the intraseasonal oscillations were related only to the La-Niña event in 1984/85. Keywords: Wavelets Morlet, Water Resources, extreme events.  

Spatio-temporal variability of lightning and convective activity over South/South-East Asia with an emphasis during El Niño and La Niña

2017 ◽  
Vol 197 ◽  
pp. 150-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Upal Saha ◽  
Devendraa Siingh ◽  
S.K. Midya ◽  
R.P. Singh ◽  
A.K. Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Spatio Temporal

scholarly journals EFFECT OF LONG TERM TIDAL CONSTITUENTS ON MEAN SEA LEVEL TREND DURING EL-NINO AND LA-NINA PHENOMENA

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W5 ◽  
pp. 225-234
Author(s):  
N. H. M. Yusof ◽  
M. R. Mahmud ◽  
M. H. Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The Moon ◽  
Tidal Constituent ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Tidal Data ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Tidal Constituents

There are many factors that influence the change of the tidal constituent pattern. The factors can be classified as astronomical factors and non- astronomical factors. The astronomical factors involve the gravitational force attraction by the moon and sun. The distance of sun and moon influence the gravitational attractions that are produced by the moon and sun towards earth surface. Non-astronomical factors involved the movements of currents, waves, temperature and so on which is cause by the phenomenon such as El-Nino, La-Nina. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of these phenomena towards the pattern of tidal constituent during the phenomenon on several stations that have been chosen. The difference stations were chose due to the change in the position of celestial body. In addition, tidal data for several stations were processed using the UTM Tidal Analysis and Prediction Software (μ-TAPS). Based on the tidal data that has been processed, the graphs were plotted for the predicted data and observed data to compare the different pattern between the data. The tidal data that has been processed were used to analyse the pattern of tidal constituents based on the changing amplitude of M<sub>2</sub>, S<sub>2</sub>, K<sub>1</sub>, O<sub>1</sub>, S<sub>a</sub>, S<sub>sa</sub>, Mm, Mf and MSf.

ANALISIS DAERAH RAWAN KEKERINGAN LAHAN JAGUNG BERDASARKAN IKLIM OLDEMAN DAN KETERSEDIAN AIR TANAH DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR SAAT PERIODE EL NINO DAN LA NINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1219
Author(s):  
Oki Adrianto ◽  
Sudirman Sudirman ◽  
Suwandi Suwandi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur secara sektoral masih didominasi sektor pertanian.Tanaman jagung menjadi salah satu produksi tanaman pangan terbesar berdasarkan data dari Dinas Pertanian dan Perkebunan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur tahun 2015. Peningkatan produksi pertanian dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai strategi adaptasi dan upaya penanganan bencana, salah satu upaya tersebut adalah dengan penyediaan informasi iklim terkait penentuan daerah-daerah rawan kekeringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui sebaran wilayah rawan kekeringan lahan jagung bulanan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur saat kondisi El Nino dan La Nina dengan periodeisasi bulanan januari hingga desember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan rata rata bulanan di 19 pos hujan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dan suhu udara rata-rata bulanan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan teori Brack dengan titik referensi Stasiun Klimatologi Lasiana Kupang. Periode dari masing-masing data yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 1991 dan 1997 digunakan sebagai tahun El Nino dan tahun 1999 dan 2010 digunakan sebagai tahun La Nina. Metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat rawan kekeringan dengan menggunakan pembobotan berdasarkan penjumlahan bobot tipe iklim Oldeman dan bobot ketersediaan air tanah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebaran daerah kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timurpada tahun el nino lebih luas dibandingkan tahun la nina.

A Influência dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña sobre a dinâmica climática da região Amazônica

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. e2018014
Author(s):  
Samya de Freitas MOREIRA ◽  
Cleiciane Silva da CONCEIÇÃO ◽  
Milla Cristina Santos da CRUZ ◽  
Antônio PEREIRA JÚNIOR
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Caracterização climática da temperatura do ar em Veranópolis, Rio Grande do Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Heemann Junges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina

Estudos locais de caraterização e variabilidade climática são fundamentais para geração de informações mais adaptadas às atividades agrícolas desenvolvidas em um município ou região. O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar climaticamente e analisar a influência de eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) na série 1956-2015 de temperatura do ar de Veranópolis, RS. Para caracterização climática foram estabelecidas estatísticas descritivas das temperaturas do ar máximas, mínimas e médias mensais, estacional e anual na série e normal climatológica padrão 1961- 1990. Para identificação de diferenças entre estações e influência de eventos ENOS, os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e teste de Duncan. Os resultados indicaram que a temperatura média anual é de 17,3ºC, variando entre 12,7ºC (julho) e 21,8ºC (janeiro). O clima é do tipo Cfb, de acordo com a classificação climática de Köppen e TE (temperado) na classificação climática do Estado. Temperaturas mínimas médias mensais inferiores a 10ºC ocorrem de maio a setembro, período de maior variabilidade interanual das temperaturas máximas (desvio padrão entre 1,5º e 1,8ºC), mínimas (1,6-1,8ºC) e médias mensais (1,4-1,7ºC). Anos de La Niña possuem temperaturas médias estacionais inferiores as de El Niño, embora diferenciação em relação a neutros ocorra somente para temperaturas mínimas na primavera e máximas no outono.

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover on the Great Lakes, 1963–2011

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 421-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezhi Bai ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
La Nina

Atmospheric teleconnection circulation patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover over the Great Lakes are investigated using the composite analysis of lake ice data and National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for the period 1963–2011. The teleconnection pattern associated with the severe ice cover is the combination of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative phase of Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, while the pattern associated with the mild ice cover is the combination of a positive PNA (or an El Niño) and a positive phase of the NAO/AO. These two extreme ice conditions are associated with the North American ridge–trough variations. The intensified ridge–trough system produces a strong northwest-to-southeast tilted ridge and trough and increases the anomalous northwesterly wind, advecting cold, dry Arctic air to the Great Lakes. The weakened ridge–trough system produces a flattened ridge and trough, and promotes a climatological westerly wind, advecting warm, dry air from western North America to the Great Lakes. Although ice cover for all the individual lakes responds roughly linearly and symmetrically to both phases of the NAO/AO, and roughly nonlinearly and asymmetrically to El Niño and La Niña events, the overall ice cover response to individual NAO/AO or Niño3.4 index is not statistically significant. The combined NAO/AO and Niño3.4 indices can be used to reliably project severe ice cover during the simultaneous –NAO/AO and La Niña events, and mild ice cover during the simultaneous +NAO/AO and El Niño events.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Heating Oil Price Movements

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Price Movements

We use the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model to compute out-of-sample forecasts of the monthly realized variance (RV) of movements of the spot and futures price of heating oil. We extend the HAR–RV model to include the role of El Niño and La Niña episodes, as captured by the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). Using data from June 1986 to April 2021, we show evidence for several model configurations that both El Niño and La Niña phases contain information useful for forecasting subsequent to the realized variance of price movements beyond the predictive value already captured by the HAR–RV model. The predictive value of La Niña phases, however, seems to be somewhat stronger than the predictive value of El Niño phases. Our results have important implications for investors, as well as from the perspective of sustainable decisions involving the environment.

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