scholarly journals Developing an Analytical Solution that Mimics Simulation Modeling for Construction Planning: Earthwork Case

Author(s):  
Waleed Shakeel ◽  
Ming Lu

Deriving a reliable earthwork job cost estimate entails analysis of the interaction of numerous variables defined in a highly complex and dynamic system. Using simulation to plan earthwork haul jobs delivers high accuracy in cost estimating. However, given practical limitations of time and expertise, simulation remains prohibitively expensive and rarely applied in the construction field. The development of a pragmatic tool for field applications that would mimic simulation-derived results while consuming less time was thus warranted. In this research, a spreadsheet based analytical tool was developed using data from industry benchmark databases (such as CAT Handbook and RSMeans). Based on a case study, the proposed methodology outperformed commonly used estimating methods and compared closely to the results obtained from simulation in controlled experiments.

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (92) ◽  
pp. 194-217
Author(s):  
Stanley Horowitz ◽  
Bruce Harmon

Applying price indexes presents a challenge in estimating the costs of new defense systems. An inappropriate price index—one not closely linked to the inputs to the systems being costed—can introduce errors in both development of cost estimating relationships (CER) and in development of out-year budgets. To help cost analysts understand the impacts of different price indexes, this article applies two sets of price indexes to the F-35 program. Using hedonic price indexes derived from CERs, the authors isolate changes in price due to factors other than changes in quality by developing a “Baseline” CER model using data on historical tactical aircraft programs available early in the F-35 program. The focus of the work is to improve estimates of acquisition costs. All the data used in the econometric analysis are acquisition cost data. Better cost estimates should improve projections of budget requirements.


2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-414
Author(s):  
seon ae Lim
Keyword(s):  

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 54-67
Author(s):  
A.S. Potapov ◽  
◽  
E. Amata ◽  
T.N. Polyushkina ◽  
I. Coco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Werner Reichmann

How do economic forecasters produce legitimate and credible predictions of the economic future, despite most of the economy being transmutable and indeterminate? Using data from a case study of economic forecasting institutes in Germany, this chapter argues that the production of credible economic futures depends on an epistemic process embedded in various forms of interaction. This interactional foundation—through ‘foretalk’ and ‘epistemic participation’ in networks of internal and external interlocutors—sharpens economic forecasts in three ways. First, it brings to light new imaginaries of the economic future, allowing forecasters to spot emerging developments they would otherwise have missed. Second, it ensures the forecasts’ social legitimacy. And finally, it increases the forecasts’ epistemic quality by providing decentralized information about the intentions and assumptions of key economic and political actors.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (34) ◽  
pp. 44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Westergren ◽  
Magnus Larson ◽  
Hans Hanson

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 386
Author(s):  
Jennie Gray ◽  
Lisa Buckner ◽  
Alexis Comber

This paper reviews geodemographic classifications and developments in contemporary classifications. It develops a critique of current approaches and identifiea a number of key limitations. These include the problems associated with the geodemographic cluster label (few cluster members are typical or have the same properties as the cluster centre) and the failure of the static label to describe anything about the underlying neighbourhood processes and dynamics. To address these limitations, this paper proposed a data primitives approach. Data primitives are the fundamental dimensions or measurements that capture the processes of interest. They can be used to describe the current state of an area in a multivariate feature space, and states can be compared over multiple time periods for which data are available, through for example a change vector approach. In this way, emergent social processes, which may be too weak to result in a change in a cluster label, but are nonetheless important signals, can be captured. As states are updated (for example, as new data become available), inferences about different social processes can be made, as well as classification updates if required. State changes can also be used to determine neighbourhood trajectories and to predict or infer future states. A list of data primitives was suggested from a review of the mechanisms driving a number of neighbourhood-level social processes, with the aim of improving the wider understanding of the interaction of complex neighbourhood processes and their effects. A small case study was provided to illustrate the approach. In this way, the methods outlined in this paper suggest a more nuanced approach to geodemographic research, away from a focus on classifications and static data, towards approaches that capture the social dynamics experienced by neighbourhoods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 408-415
Author(s):  
Maria Rubio Juan ◽  
Melanie Revilla

The presence of satisficers among survey respondents threatens survey data quality. To identify such respondents, Oppenheimer et al. developed the Instructional Manipulation Check (IMC), which has been used as a tool to exclude observations from the analyses. However, this practice has raised concerns regarding its effects on the external validity and the substantive conclusions of studies excluding respondents who fail an IMC. Thus, more research on the differences between respondents who pass versus fail an IMC regarding sociodemographic and attitudinal variables is needed. This study compares respondents who passed versus failed an IMC both for descriptive and causal analyses based on structural equation modeling (SEM) using data from an online survey implemented in Spain in 2019. These data were analyzed by Rubio Juan and Revilla without taking into account the results of the IMC. We find that those who passed the IMC do differ significantly from those who failed for two sociodemographic and five attitudinal variables, out of 18 variables compared. Moreover, in terms of substantive conclusions, differences between those who passed and failed the IMC vary depending on the specific variables under study.


1983 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Schuftan

Today most foreign aid donors are genuinely committed to the idea that development in Third World countries should start with rural development. Therefore, a sizable proportion of their development funds are invested in rural projects. However, donors channel these funds through local governments (most often representing local bourgeois interests) that are not as committed to the principle of rural development. These governments are often also embarked in policies that are actually—directly or indirectly—expropriating the surpluses generated by agriculture and investing them in the other sectors of the economy. The peasants are therefore footing most of the bill of overall national development. This paper contends that, because of this state of affairs, foreign aid directed toward rural development is actually filling the investment gap left by an internal system of unequal returns to production in agriculture. In so doing, foreign aid is indirectly financing the development of the other sectors of the economy, even if this result is unintended. This perpetrates maldevelopment without redressing the basic exploitation process of peasants which lies at the core of underdevelopment. Evidence to support this hypothesis is presented using data from a primarily agricultural exporting country: the United Republic of Cameroon.


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