scholarly journals Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Estimating Program Cost: F-35 Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (92) ◽  
pp. 194-217
Author(s):  
Stanley Horowitz ◽  
Bruce Harmon
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Hedonic Price ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Program Cost ◽  
Defense Systems ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
Acquisition Costs ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Price Escalation

Applying price indexes presents a challenge in estimating the costs of new defense systems. An inappropriate price index—one not closely linked to the inputs to the systems being costed—can introduce errors in both development of cost estimating relationships (CER) and in development of out-year budgets. To help cost analysts understand the impacts of different price indexes, this article applies two sets of price indexes to the F-35 program. Using hedonic price indexes derived from CERs, the authors isolate changes in price due to factors other than changes in quality by developing a “Baseline” CER model using data on historical tactical aircraft programs available early in the F-35 program. The focus of the work is to improve estimates of acquisition costs. All the data used in the econometric analysis are acquisition cost data. Better cost estimates should improve projections of budget requirements.

scholarly journals Developing an Analytical Solution that Mimics Simulation Modeling for Construction Planning: Earthwork Case

2019 ◽  
pp. 552-562
Author(s):  
Waleed Shakeel ◽  
Ming Lu
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Solution ◽  
Dynamic System ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
Controlled Experiments ◽  
Cost Estimating ◽  
Construction Planning ◽  
Using Data

Deriving a reliable earthwork job cost estimate entails analysis of the interaction of numerous variables defined in a highly complex and dynamic system. Using simulation to plan earthwork haul jobs delivers high accuracy in cost estimating. However, given practical limitations of time and expertise, simulation remains prohibitively expensive and rarely applied in the construction field. The development of a pragmatic tool for field applications that would mimic simulation-derived results while consuming less time was thus warranted. In this research, a spreadsheet based analytical tool was developed using data from industry benchmark databases (such as CAT Handbook and RSMeans). Based on a case study, the proposed methodology outperformed commonly used estimating methods and compared closely to the results obtained from simulation in controlled experiments.

A case study of global ULF pulsations using data from space-borne and ground-based magnetometers and a SuperDARN radar

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 54-67
Author(s):  
A.S. Potapov ◽  
◽  
E. Amata ◽  
T.N. Polyushkina ◽  
I. Coco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Using Data

Using Cost Estimating Relationships to Develop A Price Index for Tactical Aircraft

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley A. Horowitz ◽  
Bruce R. Harmon ◽  
Daniel B. Levine
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Cost Estimating

The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner Reichmann
Keyword(s):  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Social Legitimacy ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Economic Future ◽  
Economic Forecasts ◽  
Epistemic Process

How do economic forecasters produce legitimate and credible predictions of the economic future, despite most of the economy being transmutable and indeterminate? Using data from a case study of economic forecasting institutes in Germany, this chapter argues that the production of credible economic futures depends on an epistemic process embedded in various forms of interaction. This interactional foundation—through ‘foretalk’ and ‘epistemic participation’ in networks of internal and external interlocutors—sharpens economic forecasts in three ways. First, it brings to light new imaginaries of the economic future, allowing forecasters to spot emerging developments they would otherwise have missed. Second, it ensures the forecasts’ social legitimacy. And finally, it increases the forecasts’ epistemic quality by providing decentralized information about the intentions and assumptions of key economic and political actors.

scholarly journals Creating Price Indexes for Measuring Productivity in Mental Health Care

2001 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan H. Busch ◽  
Ernst R. Berndt ◽  
Richard G. Frank
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Major Depression ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Measurement Issues ◽  
The Past ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
Treatment Technologies ◽  
New Treatment

Economists have long suggested that to be reliable, a preferred medical care price index should employ time-varying weights to measure outcomes-adjusted changes in the price of treating an episode of illness. In this article, we report on several years of research developing alternative indexes for the treatment of the acute phase of major depression, for the period 1991–1996. The introduction of new treatment technologies in the past two decades suggests well-known measurement issues may be prominent in constructing such a price index.We report on the results of four successively re

scholarly journals Extending Geodemographics Using Data Primitives: A Review and a Methodological Proposal

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 386
Author(s):  
Jennie Gray ◽  
Lisa Buckner ◽  
Alexis Comber
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Current State ◽  
Cluster Label ◽  
Static Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Using Data

This paper reviews geodemographic classifications and developments in contemporary classifications. It develops a critique of current approaches and identifiea a number of key limitations. These include the problems associated with the geodemographic cluster label (few cluster members are typical or have the same properties as the cluster centre) and the failure of the static label to describe anything about the underlying neighbourhood processes and dynamics. To address these limitations, this paper proposed a data primitives approach. Data primitives are the fundamental dimensions or measurements that capture the processes of interest. They can be used to describe the current state of an area in a multivariate feature space, and states can be compared over multiple time periods for which data are available, through for example a change vector approach. In this way, emergent social processes, which may be too weak to result in a change in a cluster label, but are nonetheless important signals, can be captured. As states are updated (for example, as new data become available), inferences about different social processes can be made, as well as classification updates if required. State changes can also be used to determine neighbourhood trajectories and to predict or infer future states. A list of data primitives was suggested from a review of the mechanisms driving a number of neighbourhood-level social processes, with the aim of improving the wider understanding of the interaction of complex neighbourhood processes and their effects. A small case study was provided to illustrate the approach. In this way, the methods outlined in this paper suggest a more nuanced approach to geodemographic research, away from a focus on classifications and static data, towards approaches that capture the social dynamics experienced by neighbourhoods.

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