Comparison of Prediction Accuracy of Multiple Linear Regression, ARIMA and ARIMAX Model for Pest Incidence of Cotton with Weather Factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 105 (7-9) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Aswathi ◽  
M. R. Duraisamy
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Pest Incidence

Forecasting primary delay recovery of high-speed railway using multiple linear regression, supporting vector machine, artificial neural network, and random forest regression

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 353-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaozhe Jiang ◽  
Ping Huang ◽  
Javad Lessan ◽  
Liping Fu ◽  
Chao Wen
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Random Forest Regression ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Buffer Time ◽  
Artificial Neural

Accurate prediction of recoverable train delay can support the train dispatchers’ decision-making with timetable rescheduling and improving service reliability. In this paper, we present the results of an effort aimed to develop primary delay recovery (PDR) predictor model using train operation records from Wuhan-Guangzhou (W-G) high-speed railway. To this end, we first identified the main variables that contribute to delay, including dwell buffer time, running buffer time, magnitude of primary delay time, and individual sections’ influence. Different models are applied and calibrated to predict the PDR. The validation results on test datasets indicate that the random forest regression (RFR) model outperforms the other three alternative models, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN) regarding prediction accuracy measure. Specifically, the evaluation results show that when the prediction tolerance is less than 1 min, the RFR model can achieve up to 80.4% of prediction accuracy, while the accuracy level is 44.4%, 78.5%, and 78.5% for MLR, SVM, and ANN models, respectively.

Load Forecasting of Zhejiang Province Based on Combined Optimization Methods

2014 ◽  
Vol 998-999 ◽  
pp. 1046-1051
Author(s):  
Qian Xu ◽  
Zhou Lan ◽  
Jin Hua Huang ◽  
Hong Hao Qin ◽  
Xiao Min Xu
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Zhejiang Province ◽  
Fitting Method

On the basis of analysis in Zhejiang, this paper uses the trend fitting method, the quadratic exponential smoothing model and multiple linear regression and grey GM (1, 1) portfolio model to forecast electricity consumption in 2012-2020 in Zhejiang, and compare the various methods of prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Comparative analysis of methods for prediction continuous numerical features on big datasets

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2(62)) ◽  
pp. 15-17
Author(s):  
Eduard Kinshakov ◽  
Yuliia Parfenenko ◽  
Vira Shendryk
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Random Forest Method ◽  
Subject Areas ◽  
Prediction Problems

The object of research is the process of choosing a method for predicting continuous numerical features on big datasets. The importance of the study is due to the fact that today in various subject areas it is necessary to solve the problem of predicting performance indicators based on data collected from different sources and presented in different formats, which is the task of big data analysis. To solve the problem, the methods of statistical analysis were considered, namely multiple linear regression, decision trees and a random forest. An array of extensive data was built without specifying the subject area, its preliminary processing, analysis was carried out to establish the correlation between the features. The processing of the big data array was carried out using the technology of parallel computing by means of the Dask library of the Python language. Since working with big data requires significant computing resources, this approach does not require the use of powerful computer technology. Prediction models were built using multiple linear regression methods, decision trees and a random forest, visualization of the prediction results and analysis of the reliability of the constructed models. Based on the results of calculating the prediction error, it was found that the greatest prediction accuracy among the considered methods is the random forest method. When applying this method, the prediction accuracy for a dataset of numerical features was approximately 97 %, which indicates a high reliability of the constructed model. Thus, it is possible to conclude that the random forest method is suitable for solving prediction problems using large data sets, it can be used for datasets with a large number of features and is not sensitive to data scaling. The developed software application in Python can be used to predict numerical features from different subject areas, the prediction results are imported into a text file.

Quantitative Structure-activity Relationships; Studying the Toxicity of Metal Nanoparticles

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (27) ◽  
pp. 2506-2517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuting Gao ◽  
Honglin Zhai ◽  
Xilin She ◽  
Hongzong Si
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Metal Nanoparticles ◽  
Copper Nanoparticles ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Structure Activity ◽  
Low Toxicity ◽  
Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships

Background: Metal nanomaterials are widely used in various fields, including targeted therapy and diagnosis. They are extensively used in targeted drug delivery and local treatments. However, the toxicity associated with these materials could lead to severe adverse health effects. Methods: In this study, we investigated the relationships between the toxicity and structures of metal nanoparticles by using theoretical calculations and quantitative structure-activity relationships. Twenty four physicochemical descriptors and toxicity data of 23 types of metal nanoparticles were selected as samples, and a multiple linear regression model was established to obtain a toxicity prediction equation with 5 descriptors with an R2 of 0.910. Structures of copper nanoparticles were designed based on the model, and the structure with low toxicity was searched. The multiple nonlinear regression model was used to further improve the prediction accuracy. Results: The R2 values were 0.995 in the training set and 0.988 in the test set, which indicated that the prediction accuracy improved. Based on the result of multiple linear regression, we designed copper nanoparticles with low toxicity. Conclusion: The study confirmed that the quantitative structure-activity relationship was a reasonable method for predicting the toxicity and designing the structures with low toxicity of metal nanoparticles.

scholarly journals An Empirical Comparison of Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network for Concrete Dam Deformation Modelling

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingjun Li ◽  
Junxing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Concrete Dam ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Dam Deformation ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Deformation predicting models are essential for evaluating the health status of concrete dams. Nevertheless, the application of the conventional multiple linear regression model has been limited due to the particular structure, random loading, and strong nonlinear deformation of concrete dams. Conversely, the artificial neural network (ANN) model shows good adaptability to complex and highly nonlinear behaviors. This paper aims to evaluate the specific performance of the multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) model in characterizing concrete dam deformation under environmental loads. In this study, four models, namely, the multiple linear regression (MLR), stepwise regression (SR), backpropagation (BP) neural network, and extreme learning machine (ELM) model, are employed to simulate dam deformation from two aspects: single measurement point and multiple measurement points, approximately 11 years of historical dam operation records. Results showed that the prediction accuracy of the multipoint model was higher than that of the single point model except the MLR model. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the ELM model was always higher than the other three models. All discussions would be conducted in conjunction with a gravity dam study.

Pengaruh Motivasi Kerja Terhadap Kinerja Pegawai Kantor Sekretariat Daerah Kabupaten Gunungkidul

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-137
Author(s):  
Ary Sutrischastini ◽  
Agus Riyanto
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Work Motivation ◽  
Probability Sampling ◽  
Random Probability

This paper will discuss the effect of work motivation (incentives, motives and expectations) on the performance of the staff of the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul. The purpose of this paper is: 1) Determine the effect of incentives on the performance of the staff of the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul, 2) Determine the effect of motive on the performance of the staff of the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul, 3) To know the effect of expectations on the performance of the staff of the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul, 4)To know the effect of incentives, motives and expectations on the performance of the staff of the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul.Research sites in the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul and the population is 162entire employee in the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul. Samples amounted to 116 respondents taken with simple random probability sampling method. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression. Results obtained: (1) incentives positive and significant effect on the performance of, (2) motif positive and significant effect on the performance of, (3) expectations positive and significant impact on the performance of , and (4) incentives, motives and expectations of positive and significant impact on the performance of the staff of the Regional Secretariat Gunungkidul.

PENGARUH FAKTOR-FAKTOR INTERNAL PERBANKAN TERHADAP NON PERFORMING FINANCING PADA BANK UMUM SYARIAH

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-130
Author(s):  
Eka Ambara Harci Putranta ◽  
Lilik Ambarwati
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Independent Variable

The study aims to analyze the influence of internal banking factors in the form of: Capital Adequency Ratio (CAR), Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) and Total Assets (TA) to Non Performing Financing at Sharia Banks. This research method used multiple linear regression analysis with the help of SPSS 16.00 software which is used to see the influence between the independent variables in the form of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) and Total Assets (TA) to Non Performing Financing. The sample of this study was 3 Islamic Commercial Banks, so there were 36 annual reports obtained through purposive sampling, then analyzed using multiple linear regression methods. The results showed that based on the F Test, the independent variable had an effect on the NPF, indicated by the F value of 17,016 and significance of 0,000, overall the independent variable was able to explain the effect of 69.60%. While based on the partial t test, showed that CAR has a significant negative effect, Total assets have a significant positive effect with a significance value below 0.05 (5%). Meanwhile FDR does not affect NPF.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Keputusan Mahasiswa Memilih Program Studi Kebidanan STIKES Muhammadiyah Ciamis Tahun 2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-82
Author(s):  
Evi Mariana
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Marketing Mix ◽  
Stratified Random Sampling ◽  
Price Promotion ◽  
F Test ◽  
Physical Evidence

The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors that influence the decisionof the students chose to study in Obstetrics Prodi STIKES Muhammadiyah Ciamis and analyze the factors that most influence the decision of the students chose to study in Obstetrics Prodi STIKES Muhammadiyah Ciamis. Collecting data in this study was conducted using a survey by questionnaire to 114 students by stratified random sampling method. Methods of data analysis using multiple linear regression, F test and test T. The result is a marketing mix that significantly is the product, place, and physical evidence. And that does not affect the marketing mix is price, promotion, place, and processes

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