scholarly journals Analyzing the Trend of Chinese Real Estate Under the Epidemic Era by Comparing the Real Estate Markets Between China and Japan

Author(s):  
Guanhua Qu
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 244
Author(s):  
Junjie Li ◽  
Li Zheng ◽  
Chunlu Liu ◽  
Zhifeng Shen

With the rapid development of information communication technology and the Internet, information spillover between cities in real estate markets is becoming more frequent. The influence of information spillover in real estate markets is becoming more and more prominent. However, the current research of information spillover between cities is still relatively insufficient. In view of this research gap, this paper builds a research framework on the information conduction effect in the real estate markets of 10 Chinese cities by using Baidu search data, text mining and principal component analysis and analyzes the information interaction and dynamic influence of the real estate markets in each city by using the vector autoregressive model empirically. The results show that the information interaction among the real estate markets in each city has a network pattern and there is a significant two-way information spillover effect in most cities. When the “information distance” becomes closer, the information interaction between the markets of the cities becomes closer and it is easier for cities to influence each other. The results help to explain the information spillover mechanism behind the house price spillover and to improve the ability to predict and analyze the information spillover process in real estate markets.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Del Giudice ◽  
Pierfrancesco De Paola ◽  
Francesco Paolo Del Giudice

The COVID-19 (also called “SARS-CoV-2”) pandemic is causing a dramatic reduction in consumption, with a further drop in prices and a decrease in workers’ per capita income. To this will be added an increase in unemployment, which will further depress consumption. The real estate market, as for other productive and commercial sectors, in the short and mid-run, will not tend to move independently from the context of the aforementioned economic variables. The effect of pandemics or health emergencies on housing markets is an unexplored topic in international literature. For this reason, firstly, the few specific studies found are reported and, by analogy, studies on the effects of terrorism attacks and natural disasters on real estate prices are examined too. Subsequently, beginning from the real estate dynamics and economic indicators of the Campania region before the COVID-19 emergency, the current COVID-19 scenario is defined (focusing on unemployment, personal and household income, real estate judicial execution, real estate dynamics). Finally, a real estate pricing model is developed, evaluating the short and mid-run COVID-19 effects on housing prices. To predict possible changes in the mid-run of real estate judicial execution and real estate dynamics, the economic model of Lotka–Volterra (also known as the “prey–predator” model) was applied. Results of the model indicate a housing prices drop of 4.16% in the short-run and 6.49% in the mid-run (late 2020–early 2021).


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Haran ◽  
Michael McCord ◽  
Peadar Davis ◽  
John McCord ◽  
Colm Lauder ◽  
...  

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to improve the transparency of European emerging real estate market dynamics and performance attributes in the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis (GFC). The paper examines the extent and nature of inter-relationships between three emerging real estate markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland as well as determining the rationale for including emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment portfolio. The paper affords a timely update following the reinstatement of lending provision for European emerging real estate investment markets in 2014. Design/methodology/approach – The paper employs lead-lag correlations and Grainger causality to examine inter and intra relationships across three emerging European real estate markets, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over the period 2006-2014. Optimal portfolio analysis is undertaken to explore the role of emerging real estate markets within the confines of a multi-asset investment portfolio as well as a Pan-European real estate investment portfolio. Findings – The findings demonstrate the opportunities afforded by the European emerging real estate markets in terms of both performance enhancement and risk diversification. Significantly, the findings highlight the lack of “uniformity” across the European emerging markets in terms of their investment potential, with Grainger causality confirming that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are not endogenous functions of one-another’s performance. Practical implications – This paper makes a considered contribution to the analytical interpretation of European emerging property market performance across the real estate cycle. The research demonstrates that the real estate markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland exhibit specific investment characteristics which differentiate them from the more developed real estate markets across Europe. Indeed emerging markets have the propensity to serve as both a risk diversifier as well as performance enhancer within the confines of a pan-European real estate investment portfolio. However, as the research clearly articulates, intricate understanding of the attributes afforded by the different emerging markets as well as the divergence in sectoral dynamics/performance is integral to portfolio allocation strategies. Originality/value – Robust academic research on Europe’s emerging real estate markets has been hampered by deficiencies in data provision. This study makes an innovative and timely contribution to redressing the research vacuum through delineated examination of the performance dynamics of three markets namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, across the real estate cycle. The role and function of emerging markets is depicted within the confines of a Pan-European direct real estate investment portfolio at the all property level and in terms of sectoral specific allocations comprising retail, office and industrial. The explicit added value of the paper is the propensity to bench-mark the performance of emerging markets real estate markets on a like-for-like basis with developed real estate markets across Europe facilitating the exploration of the role and function of emerging real estate markets within a Pan-European investment context.


Author(s):  
Shady Kholdy ◽  
Ahmad Sohrabian

Capital gain expectation is known to be an important determinant of housing price hikes during the real estate booms. Empirically, however, specifying the way expectations about current and future economic variables are formed is a dilemma. Although it is reasonable to assume that economic fundamentals have a significant effect on the investors’ expectation about future gains, a number of housing market analysts claim that expectations of housing prices are extrapolative. This study attempts to investigate the mechanism by which investors’ capital gain expectations and psychology are shaped. The results suggest that housing prices are predictable with respect to capital gain expectations only when these expectations are formed by extrapolation of past price appreciations. Considering the large number of empirical evidence on housing market anomaly with respect to capital gain expectations, the results suggest that the extrapolative expectations can better explain the real estate price behavior than expectations that are formed by economic fundamentals.


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Renigier-Biłozor ◽  
Andrzej Biłozor

The growing significance of the real estate market prompts investors to search for factors and variables which support cohesive analyses of real estate markets, market comparisons based on diverse criteria and determination of market potential. The specificity of the real estate market is determined by the unique attributes of property. The Authors assume that developing real estate market ratings identifies the types of information and factors which affect decision-making on real estate markets. The main objective of  real estate market ratings is to create a universal and standardized classification system for evaluating the real estate market. One of the most important problems in this area is collecting appropriate features of real estate market and development dataset. The main problem involves the selection and application of appropriate features, which would be relevant to the specificity of information related to the real estate market and create a kind of coherent system aiding the decision-making process. The main aim of this study is the optimization of  set of variables that were used to develop the real estate market ratings.  For this purpose, Hellwig’s method of integral capacity of information was applied. In this particular case, the method shows what set of variables provides information most sufficiently. The results lead to obtaining the necessary set of features that constitute essential information which describes the situation on the local real estate market.


Author(s):  
Anna Przewiezlikowska

The aim of this article is the comparative description of two real estate markets based on the procedures for real property valuation. The study concerned only the land, which was undeveloped, intended for single-family housing in two communes located in the district of Krakow and three communes from the district of Kielce. The analyses were performed at four-year intervals and the comparison of the real estate markets was conducted. The first part contains the description of the areas covered by the research studies and the analyses of the real estate market and market trends. The next stage includes the descriptions of the two test real properties which are the subject of valuation and the fundamental comparative criterion. Then, the algorithms and methods of the calculations are presented. The practical part contains the description of individual markets, the implementation of the analyses and calculations, the comparison of the study areas and conclusions. The comparative analysis of the performed simulations of valuations was carried out first and then followed by a collective summary of descriptive statistics of all the real estate bases and the comparative description of the structures of the databases showing meaningful differences between Krakow and Kielce region.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kauko Viitanen ◽  
Brian Kawuzi ◽  
Anahita Rashidfarokhi ◽  
Saija Toivonen

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document