The Future as a Problem: Methodology of Research and Possible Development Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 160-168
Author(s):  
V.P. VERYASKINA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Development Scenarios ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Predict and Simulate Sustainable Urban Growth by Using GIS and MCE Based CA. Case of Famagusta in Northern Cyprus

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4446
Author(s):  
Can Kara ◽  
Naciye Doratlı
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Soil Productivity ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Multi Criteria Evaluation ◽  
The Future

The research study utilizes Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method in geographic information systems (GIS) environment and uses MCE suitability maps with Cellular Automata (CA) for predicting and simulating sustainable urban development scenarios in Famagusta City. It represents first scenario-based simulations of the future growth of Famagusta as “do-nothing” and “sustainable”. Under the do-nothing scenario, Markov Chain probability analysis with CA models is used with temporal land-use/cover datasets based on the images from 2002 and 2011. It shows that, Famagusta City is moving away from sustainable development. Future expansion of both medium-density and low-density urban zones are always located around existing built-up urban area along transportation lines. A similar model is employed by applying sustainable urban development policies by the policy driven scenario. As a main goal, sustainable urban development includes three main criteria, compactness, environmental protection, and social equity. Additionally, brownfield development, distance from center, soil characteristics, soil productivity, vegetation, environmental protection areas (EPA), distance from local services, distance from open space are used as criteria with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Having such a simulation with the combination of MCE, GIS, and CA has several advantages. Prediction of urban growth presents possible alternative development in the future; visualization of decision making easier for town planners and supports the spatial planning process; and creates more realistic results of our choices related to urban growth.

scholarly journals The Spontaneous Development of Society and the Problem of Forecasting the Future

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-43
Author(s):  
Alexander N. Danilov
Keyword(s):  
Current System ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Historical Memory ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Consumer Society ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
World Development ◽  
The Ideal

The article discusses the development of modern society. In the author’s opinion, the prediction of society development is not possible due to the spontaneity of social processes. The contemporary social development is characterized by transition values: strategic instability, permanent crisis, decay of morality, degradation of the ecological environment, increase of international terrorism, danger of nuclear war, etc. Each epoch, including an epoch of uncertainty, gives rise to its own mechanisms for regulating world development, which are based on the historical memory of mankind, on the acknowledgment of the value of peaceful coexistence and the acceptance of human life as the highest value. Preventing war is the main value of world development. The crucial decisions of country’s further development are dictated by the security of the state. The author demonstrates that in our time the ideal of progress evolves from the concept of accelerated innovation changes into the ideal of sustainable development, which presumes the formation of new values as a condition for the transition to new strategies of civilizational development. The current system of economic growth has its own value foundation – a consumer society. The preservation of a consumer society or the transition to alternative development scenarios largely depend on the achievements of the social sciences and humanities. The future will come without our will, but are we ready to accept this alien and unpredictable future? That is why we cannot passively await the future. The future will not arise by itself, the future will be what we make it.

Scenario Analysis of City Residential Electricity Consumption Based on the Time-Series Forecast - Taking Quanzhou City as an Example

2012 ◽  
Vol 178-181 ◽  
pp. 184-188
Author(s):  
Xiang Chao Hou ◽  
Lu Jie Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Building Energy Efficiency ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Time Series Forecast ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Residential Electricity

In this paper, the development scenarios of electricity consumption of city residents living were analyzed by using the prediction method of time-series smoothing. The simulation calculation to the future development scenarios of electricity consumption forecasts the electricity consumption values of residential building in this case area from 2010 to 2050. The conclusion, that controlling living area per person is most effective measure, has reference significance for the future residential building energy efficiency work.

scholarly journals Multifunctional Leisure Organizations – The Future or a hype

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-140
Author(s):  
Liliya Terzieva
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Organisational Structure ◽  
Strategic Design ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
The Future

Leisure has been undergoing a transformation that requires strategic design approaches open for imagination, inspiration and diverse organisational structure and behavioural models. The stakeholders within and the participants (not anymore defined just through the notion of consumers) have opened up the spectrum of what leisure could mean and sustain.This paper provides a detailed overview of the existence, essence and specifics of multifunctional leisure organizations, their principles and structures while relating them to two real-life cases from the Netherlands. Challenges, as well as future development scenarios, are presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Strategic European Integration Scenarios of Ukrainian and Polish Research, Education and Innovation Spaces

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-40
Author(s):  
Yurii Kharazishvili ◽  
Aleksy Kwilinski ◽  
Henryk Dzwigol ◽  
Viacheslav Liashenko
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Management Theory ◽  
Research Education ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
The Future ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Development Analysis ◽  
National Economies ◽  
Development Trajectories

A comprehensive study was conducted in the direction of research and institutional support and comparison with the nearest neighbour - Poland, to determine the current state and justify strategic scenarios for Ukraine's integration into the research, educational and innovation spaces of the EU as a source of proactive sustainable innovative development. Analysis of the use of foresight technology to determine the possible future, create the desired image of the future and determine strategies to achieve it using methods developed in various research areas revealed that its application makes sense in determining long-term factors, trends and directions of national economies. That is, in foresighting, in contrast to forecasting, the emphasis is made on qualitative rather than quantitative results, which does not provide the expected targeted policy of the state, because it does not give clear, concrete results of actions - quantitative strategic benchmarks, monitoring which would control the process of these areas' development. The disadvantages of foresighting methods that limit its application are identified. Scientific substantiation of strategic scenarios of European integration of Ukrainian and Polish research, education and innovation spaces is based on the concept of sustainable development, which is grounded on applied systems theory, management theory and economic cybernetics and comprises the stages of identifying and strategizing. Identification is carried out taking into account the definition of the safe existence boundaries and simultaneous norming and integrated convolution of indicators and thresholds of education and innovation. Comparison on one scale of integrated indices of education and innovation makes it possible to carry out the goal-setting stage, identify possible strategic development scenarios and build the desired development trajectories, i.e., to implement the principle of strategizing "the future is determined by the trajectory into future." Thus, knowledge of the desired values of integrated indices in each year makes it possible, through their decomposition by the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory, to justify the values of indicators that provide the desired growth trajectory and achieve certain goals of research, educational and innovative spaces of Ukraine and Poland.

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