Model of space-time dynamics of the Japan Sea ice cover

2007 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-49
Author(s):  
A. N. Chetyrbotskii
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Fu ◽  
Ruifen Zhan ◽  
Zhiwei Wu ◽  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Jiuwei Zhao

Although many studies have revealed that Arctic sea ice may impose a great impact on the global climate system, including the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP), it is unknown whether the Arctic sea ice could have any significant effects on other aspects of TCs; and if so, what are the involved physical mechanisms. This study investigates the impact of spring (April-May) sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Bering Sea on interannual variability of TC activity in terms of the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the WNP in the TC season (June-September) during 1981–2018. A statistical analysis indicates that the spring SIC in the Bering Sea is negatively correlated with the TC season ACE over the WNP. Further analyses demonstrate that the reduction of the spring SIC can lead to the westward shift and intensification of the Aleutian low, which strengthens the southward cold-air intrusion, increases low clouds, and reduces surface shortwave radiation flux, leading to cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Japan Sea and its adjacent regions. This local cloud-radiation-SST feedback induces the persistent increasing cooling in SST (and also the atmosphere above) in the Japan Sea through the TC season. This leads to a strengthening and southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) over the East Asia, followed by an anomalous upper-level anticyclone, low-level cyclonic circulation anomalies, increased convective available potential energy, and reduced vertical wind shear over the tropical WNP. These all are favorable for the increased ACE over the WNP. The opposite is true for the excessive spring SIC. The finding not only has an important implication for seasonal TC forecasts but also suggests a strengthened future TC activity potentially resulting from the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice.


2018 ◽  
Vol 194 ◽  
pp. 239-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. I. Anzhina ◽  
A. N. Vrazhkin

New method for long-term forecasting of mean month and mean 10-days values of the ice cover and position of the ice edge in the Far-Eastern Seas is presented. The sea ice regime is formed under influence of thermal and dynamic patterns in the atmosphere and hydrosphere, though mechanisms of its forming and evolution are not yet completely clear, so the sea ice forecasting is based mainly on statistical methods. The new method is developed for the ice parameters prediction for the period with stable ice cover. It uses a physical-statistical model with ensemble approach. The minimum lead time of this method is 7 months. The model assimilates the data on absolute topography of 500 GPa surface, atmospheric pressure at the sea level, air temperature at 850 GPa surface and at the sea surface, relative topography of 500/1000 GPa surfaces, and the South Oscillation index. Archives of these fields for the Northern Hemisphere from 1961 to 2017 are loaded. The ensemble of predictions is formed using the criterion of their maximum accuracy on independent data sets. The method is tested for the winter seasons of 2015/2016 and 2016/2017. The most accurate by 3 parameters are the forecasts for the Okhotsk Sea with the average accuracy 75–83 % that is much better than the accuracy of climatic forecasts (61–67 %). The forecast of the mean month ice cover only is satisfactory for the Japan Sea, and the forecast of the ice edge position only (65 % accuracy) exceeds the climate forecasting accuracy for the Bering Sea, while the climatic forecasting shows better results for the ice cover. The average accuracy of forecasting with new method (all parameters for all seas) exceeds 70 %, that allows to recommend the method for practical using. A prognostic product could be proposed as charts of the sea ice edge for future winter with estimations of the ice cover for each sea by months and 10-days.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuefa Shi ◽  
Jianjun Zou ◽  
Sergey Gorbarenko

<p>The Japan Sea, one of the marginal seas of the North Pacific, communicates with adjacent seas through four shallow straits (<130 m) and the present environment in the Japan Sea is mainly forced by the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC), East Asia Monsoon (EAM) and seasonal sea ice. During the Quaternary, the pronounced effects of glacial eustatic sea level on the hydrography, ocean biogeochemistry and sediment depositions in the Japan Sea over glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the spatial heterogeneity of these forcings exerting on environment of the Japan Sea may results in contrasting response. On the basis of a suite of sediment cores collected during the China-Russia joint expedition in 2010, we investigate the sedimentary processes and paleoenvironment changes in the Japan Sea. We found enhanced extent of seasonal sea-ice coverage in the western Japan Sea, which is synchronous with the intensification of East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) from 15ka to 8ka. During the early last deglaciation (17ka-15ka), perennial sea ice cover at investigated site occurs and thus inhibits the deepwater formation in the Japan Sea. Since 8 ka, increased deep ventilation and dampened sea ice coverage are closely related to enhanced EAWM and invasion of high-salinity TWC into the Japan Sea. In the southern Japan Sea, the sediment provenance is mainly derived from the Yangtze and old yellow rivers, while the terrigenous matter was mainly sourced from the Yangtze River after 7 ka, on the basis of elemental and radiogenic isotopic data (Sr and Nd) of fine-sized (<63 μm) sediments. Abrupt shifts in sediment provenance occurred at ~18 ka and ~7 ka and these time periods are synchronous with changes in surface hydrography and deep ventilation in the Ulleung Basin. In the central Japan Sea, eolian dust sourced from central Asia and Chinese Loess Plateau by westerly was delivered to the central Japan Sea. In addition, deep ventilation in the southern and central Japan Sea evidenced by redox-sensitive elements and ventilation-like radiolarian species suggest intensified ventilation since 8ka and during cold spells of the last deglaciation, which is closely related to the invasion of the Tsushima Warm Current into the Japan Sea. Our data suggest that sea level is a first-order factor in controlling the environment and sediment deposition in the Japan Sea at orbital timescales, while the East Asian Monsoon and Kuroshio Current play a secondary role. Note: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 41420104005, U1606401) and National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (GASI-GEOGE-03 &-04).<span> </span></p>


2005 ◽  
Vol 357 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 556-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Chmel ◽  
V.N. Smirnov ◽  
M.P. Astakhov

2016 ◽  
Vol 184 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-149
Author(s):  
Irina L. Tsypysheva ◽  
Larisa S. Muktepavel ◽  
G. Sh. Tsitsiashvili ◽  
Tatyana A. Shatilina ◽  
Tatyana V. Radchenkova
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  

1997 ◽  
Vol 43 (143) ◽  
pp. 138-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. O. Jeffries ◽  
K. Morris ◽  
W.F. Weeks ◽  
A. P. Worby

AbstractSixty-three ice cores were collected in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas in August and September 1993 during a cruise of the R.V. Nathaniel B. Palmer. The structure and stable-isotopic composition (18O/16O) of the cores were investigated in order to understand the growth conditions and to identify the key growth processes, particularly the contribution of snow to sea-ice formation. The structure and isotopic composition of a set of 12 cores that was collected for the same purpose in the Bellingshausen Sea in March 1992 are reassessed. Frazil ice and congelation ice contribute 44% and 26%, respectively, to the composition of both the winter and summer ice-core sets, evidence that the relatively calm conditions that favour congelation-ice formation are neither as common nor as prolonged as the more turbulent conditions that favour frazil-ice growth and pancake-ice formation. Both frazil- and congelation-ice layers have an av erage thickness of 0.12 m in winter, evidence that congelation ice and pancake ice thicken primarily by dynamic processes. The thermodynamic development of the ice cover relies heavily on the formation of snow ice at the surface of floes after sea water has flooded the snow cover. Snow-ice layers have a mean thickness of 0.20 and 0.28 m in the winter and summer cores, respectively, and the contribution of snow ice to the winter (24%) and summer (16%) core sets exceeds most quantities that have been reported previously in other Antarctic pack-ice zones. The thickness and quantity of snow ice may be due to a combination of high snow-accumulation rates and snow loads, environmental conditions that favour a warm ice cover in which brine convection between the bottom and top of the ice introduces sea water to the snow/ice interface, and bottom melting losses being compensated by snow-ice formation. Layers of superimposed ice at the top of each of the summer cores make up 4.6% of the ice that was examined and they increase by a factor of 3 the quantity of snow entrained in the ice. The accumulation of superimposed ice is evidence that melting in the snow cover on Antarctic sea-ice floes ran reach an advanced stage and contribute a significant amount of snow to the total ice mass.


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