scholarly journals How does Income Inequality affect the Support for Populist Parties?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Stoetzer ◽  
Johannes Giesecke ◽  
Heike Klüver
Keyword(s):  
Social Identity ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Social Integration ◽  
Mediation Analysis ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Causal Mediation Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Recent studies provide evidence that income inequality is a relevant driver for the electoral success of populist parties all over Europe. In this article, we aim to understand how exactly increasing income inequality can lead to support for populist parties. More specifically, we discuss four different attitudinal mechanisms that have been suggested in previous research: economic insecurities, trust in political elites, social integration and social identity. We rely on eight waves of the European Social Survey and find that especially trust in political elites is linked to rising income inequality and populist support. However, a causal mediation analysis shows that none of these mechanisms is sufficient to understand the impact of income inequality onsupport for populists. This finding raises questions regarding the empirical relevance of existing theories to explain how macroeconomic changes in inequality became a pre-condition for the rise of populist parties.

scholarly journals Prying Open the Black Box of Causality - A Causal Mediation Analysis Test of Procedural Justice Policing

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krisztián Pósch
Keyword(s):  
Procedural Justice ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Mediation Analysis ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Mediation Effects ◽  
Causal Mediation ◽  
Treatment Implementation ◽  
Causal Mediation Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sense Of Power

Objectives: Review causal mediation analysis as a method for estimating and assessing direct and indirect effects in experimental criminology. Test procedural justice theory by examining the extent to which procedural justice mediates the impact of contact with the police on various outcomes. Apply causal mediation analysis to better interpret data from a field experiment that had suffered from a particular type of implementation failure.Methods: Data from a block-randomised controlled trial of procedural justice policing (the Scottish Community Engagement Trial) were analysed. All constructs were measured using surveys distributed during roadside police checks. The treatment implementation was assessed by analysing the treatment effect consistency and heterogeneity. Causal mediation analysis and sensitivity analysis were used to assess the mediating role of procedural justice.Results: First, the treatment effect was consistent and fairly homogeneous, indicating that the systematic variation in the study is attributable to the design. Second, procedural justice acts as a mediator channelling the treatment’s effect towards normative alignment (NIE=-0.207), duty to obey (NIE=-0.153), sense of power (NIE=-0.078), and social identity (NIE=-0.052), all of which are moderately robust to unmeasured confounding. The NIEs for risk of sanction and personal morality were highly sensitive, while for coerced obligation and sense of power they were non-significant. Conclusions: Causal mediation analysis is a versatile tool that can salvage experiments with systematic yet ambiguous treatment effects by allowing researchers to “pry open” the black box of causality. Most of the theoretical propositions of procedural justice policing were supported. Future studies are needed with more discernible causal mediation effects.

scholarly journals Hello pension, goodbye tension? The impact of work and institutions on older workers’ labor market participation in Europe

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Fleischmann ◽  
Ferry Koster ◽  
Pearl Dykstra ◽  
Joop Schippers
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Older Workers ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Institutional Characteristics ◽  
Labor Market Participation ◽  
Market Participation ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Welfare State

To sustain the welfare state, several EU countries agreed to take measures aimed at increasing the labor market participation of older workers (European Commission 2001). In this study, we developed a framework integrating individual, work, and institutional characteristics in order to explain the labor market participation of older workers. While prior studies focused mainly on individual characteristics, the present analysis investigated the impact of work and institutions more closely using the European Social Survey. Multilevel analyses across 21 countries showed that work characteristics increased the benefits from work, hence increasing the likelihood of participation among older workers, and that the generosity of institutions discouraged older workers to remain in the labor market.

Political attitudes and trade union membership in the Nordic countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 381-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carsten Strøby Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Union Membership ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
The Impact

Do political attitudes influence the likelihood of employees being members of a trade union, and to what extent is this the case in the Nordic countries with their high aggregate levels of membership? In this article, I address these questions using European Social Survey data from 2012. The results show that left-wing political attitudes have the most impact on the likelihood of trade union membership in Sweden and to a lesser extent in Denmark. In Norway and Finland, there is no statistically significant impact. I argue that the impact of left-wing political attitudes on unionization in Sweden and Denmark reflects a conception among employees that trade unions are normative organizations.

scholarly journals When economic and cultural interests align: the anti-immigration voter coalitions driving far right party success in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 427-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daphne Halikiopoulou ◽  
Tim Vlandas
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis article contests the view that the strong positive correlation between anti-immigration attitudes and far right party success necessarily constitutes evidence in support of the cultural grievance thesis. We argue that the success of far right parties depends on their ability to mobilize a coalition of interests between their core supporters, that is voters with cultural grievances over immigration and the often larger group of voters with economic grievances over immigration. Using individual level data from eight rounds of the European Social Survey, our empirical analysis shows that while cultural concerns over immigration are a stronger predictor of far right party support, those who are concerned with the impact of immigration on the economy are important to the far right in numerical terms. Taken together, our findings suggest that economic grievances over immigration remain pivotal within the context of the transnational cleavage.

scholarly journals Diversity and Perceptions of Immigration: How the Past Influences the Present

2020 ◽  
pp. 003232172092277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren McLaren ◽  
Anja Neundorf ◽  
Ian Paterson
Keyword(s):  
Generational Differences ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
The Past ◽  
Positive Attitudes ◽  
The Uk ◽  
British Sample ◽  
The Impact

The question of whether high immigration produces anti-immigration hostility has vexed researchers across multiple disciplines for decades. And yet, understanding this relationship is crucial for countries dependant on immigrant labour but concerned about its impact on social cohesion. Absent from most of this research are theories about the impact of early-years socialisation conditions on contemporary attitudes. Using the British sample of the European Social Survey (2002–2017) and two innovative approaches to modelling generational differences – generalised additive models and hierarchical age‒period‒cohort models – this paper shows that rather than producing hostility to immigration, being socialised in a context of high immigrant-origin diversity is likely to result in more positive attitudes to immigration later in life. This implies that through generational replacement, countries like the UK are likely to become increasingly tolerant of immigration over time. Importantly, however, a context of high-income inequality may diminish this effect.

Voter Turnout, Information Acquisition and Education: Evidence from 15 European Countries

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Borgonovi ◽  
Beatrice d'Hombres ◽  
Bryony Hoskins
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Compulsory Schooling ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This article examines the impact of education on political participation in 15 European countries. We use data from the European Social Survey and find that education is positively associated with voter turnout and information acquisition about politics and currents affairs. However, when we use exogeneous changes in compulsory schooling to instrument education, we observe a statistically significant causal relationship in the case of information acquisition but not voter turnout.

scholarly journals Chronic Hypertension, Perinatal Mortality, and the Impact of Preterm Delivery: A Population-Based Study in the United States, 2015-2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonal Grover ◽  
Justin Brandt ◽  
Uma Reddy ◽  
Cande Ananth (STATS CONSULTS ONLY)
Keyword(s):  
Perinatal Mortality ◽  
Preterm Delivery ◽  
Mediation Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Chronic Hypertension ◽  
Unmeasured Confounding ◽  
Early Term ◽  
Term Delivery ◽  
Causal Mediation Analysis ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To estimate the association between chronic hypertension and perinatal mortality and evaluate the extent to which this risk is impacted by preterm delivery. Design: Cross-sectional analysis. Setting: US, 2015-2018. Population: Singleton births from 20-44 weeks’ gestation. Main outcomes and measures: We derived the risk of perinatal mortality in relation to chronic hypertension from fitting log-linear Poisson models with robust variance. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated after adjusting for confounders. The impact of misclassifications and unmeasured confounding biases were assessed. Causal mediation analysis was performed to quantify the impact of preterm delivery on the association. Results: Of the 15,090,678 singleton births, perinatal mortality was 22.5 per 1000 births in chronic hypertensive pregnancies compared to 8.2 per 1000 births in normotensive pregnancies (adjusted RR 2.05, 95% CI 2.00, 2.10). Corrections for exposure misclassification and unmeasured confounding biases substantially increased the risk estimate. Although, causal mediation analysis revealed that most of the effect of chronic hypertension on perinatal mortality was mediated through preterm delivery, the perinatal mortality rates were highest at early term, term, and late term gestations, suggesting that a planned early term delivery at 37-386/7 weeks may optimally balance risk in these pregnancies. Additionally, 87% (95% CI 84, 90) of perinatal deaths could be eliminated if preterm deliveries, as a result of chronic hypertension were prevented. Conclusions: Chronic hypertensive pregnancies are associated with increased risk for perinatal mortality. Planned early term delivery and targeting modifiable risk factors for chronic hypertension may reduce perinatal mortality rates.

scholarly journals Immigration attitudes in the wake of the 2015 migration crisis in the Visegrád Group countries

Intersections ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Cichocki ◽  
Piotr Jabkowski
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Political Unity ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Visegrad Group

In the summer of 2015 the tensions over managing external immigration into the European Union morphed into a full-blown crisis. Political and social reactions towards the Balkan Route emergency exposed major divisions between EU member states. Notably, the Visegrád Group (V4) countries, i.e. Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, stood out as a block united by governmental opposition to immigration. This political unity of countries should not be interpreted, however, as certain proof for an underlying convergence of social attitudes to migration. This paper examines the impact of the crisis on the V4 public opinion on the basis of cross-country surveys, with special attention afforded to a comparative analysis of European Social Survey waves 7 (2014) and 8 (2016). General Linear Modelling is used to test two hypotheses concerning the linkage between opposition to immigration and normative orientations in Czechia, Hungary and Poland (with Slovakia missing from ESS7 and ESS8). We demonstrate that adherence to the values of Universalism corelates with lower levels of opposition to immigration, which had been the case prior to the 2015 crisis and has mostly remained true thereafter. When it comes to respondents expressing value-based concerns with Security, they are more likely to voice more negative opinions about immigration after the crisis, although no such association held in 2014 measurements. We postulate that this public opinion shift should be interpreted as an effect of the strong securitisation of the immigration debate in the V4 countries.

The impact of religious salience on purchase intentions: evidence from the UAE

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1339-1350
Author(s):  
Catherine Nickerson ◽  
Anup Menon Nandialath
Keyword(s):  
Mediation Analysis ◽  
Consumer Behaviour ◽  
Purchase Intentions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Causal Mediation ◽  
Multicultural Environment ◽  
Religious Salience ◽  
Causal Mediation Analysis ◽  
Willingness To Purchase ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of religious salience on consumer purchase intentions in the multicultural environment of the UAE, more specifically on the willingness of a Muslim consumer to purchase a product labelled or packaged to include an Islamic appeal, i.e. an appeal with a heightened religious salience. While some attempts have been made in the literature to examine the impact of religious salience on purchase intentions, research amongst Muslim consumers remains under-explored. Design/methodology/approach The authors used a randomized survey experiment administered to 148 Emirati educated female nationals. The survey consisted of pairs of advertisements, where each advertisement promoted the same product and the same brand, varying on whether they included an Islamic appeal or not in the labelling, packaging or slogan. The respondents were asked about their attitude to the different versions of the advertisements, as well as their willingness to purchase the product. The authors used causal mediation analysis to explore the mechanisms through which causal effects on purchase intentions are determined. Findings This study shows that including an Islamic appeal, and therefore increasing the religious salience in product promotion, leads to higher purchase intentions amongst Muslim consumers. The authors also identified a number of additional moderating factors that influenced the consumer’s purchase intentions, such as product and/or brand awareness and the type of product being promoted, as well as the nature of the artefact that was included in the ad as the Islamic appeal. Finally, the causal mediation analysis suggests that Islamic appeals increases product attractiveness, which in turn leads to higher purchase intentions. Originality/value This paper investigates the effect of religious salience on consumer behaviour and their purchase intentions. This paper makes an empirical contribution to understanding consumer behaviour with particular relevance to retail hubs with a majority Muslim population.

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