scholarly journals Savaris et al (2021) erroneously interpreted their regressions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Góes
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Short Note ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Specific Time ◽  
Weighted Averages ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
Do So ◽  
At Home

Savaris et al. (2021) aim at "verifying if staying at home had an impact on mortality rates." This short note shows that the methodology they have applied in their paper does not allow them to do so. An estimated coefficient β≈0 does not imply that there is no association between the variables in either country. Rather, their pairwise difference regressions are computing coefficients that are weighted-averages of region-specific time series regressions, such that it is possible that the association is significant in both regions but their weighted-averages is close to zero. Therefore, the results do not back up the conclusions of the paper.

scholarly journals Absence of evidence or methodological issues? Commentary on “Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study”

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz ◽  
Lonni Besançon ◽  
Raphael Wimmer ◽  
Antoine Flahault
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Study ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Absence Of Evidence ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Do So ◽  
At Home

We read with interest the paper written by Savaris et al. entitled “Stay-at-home policy is a case of exceptional fallacy: an internet-based ecological study”[1]. We believe that the topic of whether non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have an impact on COVID-19 mortality is a key metric that is important to measure, and applaud the authors for attempting to do so. However, we believe that several key deficiencies within the methodology make the conclusions – that the authors found no evidence that COVID-19 deaths were reduced by staying at home – largely meaningless. In this letter we explain the deficiencies in the analysis, and why the methodology may be inadequate to detect an effect even if it were to exist.

Staying at Home

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Staying At Home ◽  
At Home

Staying at home: the potential cost savings related to triage advice provided by the New Zealand National Poisons Centre

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Ella Nicholls ◽  
Trudy Sullivan ◽  
Jiaxu Zeng ◽  
Adam C. Pomerleau
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
At Home

scholarly journals 581 The Effects of the COVID Pandemic on Burn Clinic

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S142-S142
Author(s):  
Theresa L Chin ◽  
Rita Frerk ◽  
Victor C Joe ◽  
Sara Sabeti ◽  
Kimberly Burton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Burn Injury ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Medical Facility ◽  
Burn Care ◽  
Appointment Date ◽  
Encrypted Communication ◽  
Time Of Presentation ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
Clinic Visits ◽  
At Home

Abstract Introduction The COVID19 pandemic has led to anxiety and fears for the general public. People were concerned about coming to a medical facility where the virus might be transmitted. Furthermore, stay-at-home orders that were implemented during the pandemic did not apply to clinic visits but contributed to people staying at home even for medical care. We hypothesized that there were delays in burn care due to the pandemic. Methods We queried our clinic data for number of clinic visits and new burn evaluations by month. Patients referred to our clinic from March 15, 2020 to Sept 15, 2020 were reviewed for time of presentation after injury. Days from injury date to clinic referral date and days from clinic referral date to appointment date were calculated. Patients who were referred but did not show and were not seen in our ED were not included because injury date could not be determined. Univariate analysis was performed. Results As seen in Figure 1, our in-person clinic volume decreased in April and May 2020 but rebounded in June 2020 as compared to the number of clinic visits for the same months last year. Similarly, in Figure 2, our new burn evaluations decreased in April and May 2020 compared to our new burn volume from 2019. However, our video telehealth visits increased in March and April then decreased in June-August. Conclusions Our burn clinic remained open to see patients with burn injury throughout the pandemic, however, clinic visits were delayed early in the pandemic. While we had an increase in video telehealth, it does not account for the decrease in clinic visits. This may be due to low enrollment in the electronic medical record encrypted communication platform and/or limited knowledge/access to the technology. Additional care may have been informally given via telephone but not well captured. Furthermore, burn care was delivered in the following months. Additional investigation is necessary to see if the incidence of burn injury decreased.

Econometrics for Modelling Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Castle ◽  
David F. Hendry
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Stochastic Trends ◽  
Trend Breaks ◽  
Abrupt Shifts ◽  
Climate Time Series ◽  
Do So

Shared features of economic and climate time series imply that tools for empirically modeling nonstationary economic outcomes are also appropriate for studying many aspects of observational climate-change data. Greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane, are a major cause of climate change as they cumulate in the atmosphere and reradiate the sun’s energy. As these emissions are currently mainly due to economic activity, economic and climate time series have commonalities, including considerable inertia, stochastic trends, and distributional shifts, and hence the same econometric modeling approaches can be applied to analyze both phenomena. Moreover, both disciplines lack complete knowledge of their respective data-generating processes (DGPs), so model search retaining viable theory but allowing for shifting distributions is important. Reliable modeling of both climate and economic-related time series requires finding an unknown DGP (or close approximation thereto) to represent multivariate evolving processes subject to abrupt shifts. Consequently, to ensure that DGP is nested within a much larger set of candidate determinants, model formulations to search over should comprise all potentially relevant variables, their dynamics, indicators for perturbing outliers, shifts, trend breaks, and nonlinear functions, while retaining well-established theoretical insights. Econometric modeling of climate-change data requires a sufficiently general model selection approach to handle all these aspects. Machine learning with multipath block searches commencing from very general specifications, usually with more candidate explanatory variables than observations, to discover well-specified and undominated models of the nonstationary processes under analysis, offers a rigorous route to analyzing such complex data. To do so requires applying appropriate indicator saturation estimators (ISEs), a class that includes impulse indicators for outliers, step indicators for location shifts, multiplicative indicators for parameter changes, and trend indicators for trend breaks. All ISEs entail more candidate variables than observations, often by a large margin when implementing combinations, yet can detect the impacts of shifts and policy interventions to avoid nonconstant parameters in models, as well as improve forecasts. To characterize nonstationary observational data, one must handle all substantively relevant features jointly: A failure to do so leads to nonconstant and mis-specified models and hence incorrect theory evaluation and policy analyses.

scholarly journals How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (13) ◽  
pp. 1479-1494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad ◽  
Mantu Kumar Mahalik ◽  
Perry Sadorsky
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Specific Time ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Country Specific

scholarly journals Persepsi Masyarakat Terhadap Pemberlakuan Social Distancing Di Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Sebagai Implementasi Modal Sosial

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31
Author(s):  
Ade Suherman ◽  
Tetep Tetep ◽  
Asep Supriyatna ◽  
Eldi Mulyana ◽  
Triani Widyanti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Health Condition ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Community Group ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Staying At Home ◽  
At Home

The purpose of this study is to analyze and explain public perceptions of the implementation of social distancing during the pandemic as the implementation of social capital. This study was motivated by the phenomenon of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in a number of countries, including Indonesia. This condition not only affects the economic condition of a country, hinders social interaction among the community, and also has an impact on the health condition of every human being. To avoid the wider spread of Covid-19, the government was forced to adopt social distancing and physical distancing policies in the form of staying at home, working from home, studying, and worshiping at home. This research approach is descriptive qualitative. The data of this research is the impact of social distancing for the community in Tarogong Kidul District, Garut Regency. Sources of data come from several communities with a total of 50 respondents. Collecting data in this study using interview techniques, record, and continue to take notes. The results of the research can be concluded that with the implementation of social distancing in the pandemic period, at least the community can implement social capital which includes informal values ​​or norms that are shared among members of an interrelated community group, which is based on the values ​​of beliefs, norms and networks social and they respect each other, the development of social capital is the creation of increasingly independent groups of people who are able to participate more meaningfully. Social capital can solve citizens' problems, especially with regard to strengthening friendship, repairing and maintaining public service facilities because it has advantages and is the most appropriate, even though there are other social capital in the community.

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