scholarly journals Election polling is not dead: A Bayesian bootstrap method yields accurate forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Olsson
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
New Method ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Independent Evidence ◽  
Bayesian Bootstrap ◽  
Bayesian Forecast ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Public Evidence

We present a new Bayesian bootstrap method for election forecasts that combines traditional polling questions about people’s own intentions with their expectations about how others will vote. It treats each participant’s election winner expectation as an optimal Bayesian forecast given private and public evidence available to that individual. It then infers the independent evidence and aggregates it across participants. The bootstrap forecast outperforms aggregate national polls in the 2020 U.S. election, as well as the forecasts based on traditional polling questions posed on large national probabilistic samples before the 2018 and 2020 U.S. elections. The bootstrap forecast puts most weight on people’s expectations about how their social contacts will vote, which might incorporate information about voters who are difficult to reach or who hide their true intentions. Beyond election polling, the new method is expected to improve the validity of other social science surveys.

The bootstrap and Bayesian bootstrap method in assessing bioequivalence

2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 2246-2249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan Jianping ◽  
Zhang Kongsheng ◽  
Chen Hui
Keyword(s):  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Bayesian Bootstrap

scholarly journals AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE READING PATTERNS OF KHANDWA DISTRICT STUDENTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Sunita Pamnani ◽  
C.S Shrivastava ◽  
Hemlata Nagar
Keyword(s):  
Academic Achievement ◽  
Academic Success ◽  
Social Science ◽  
New Method ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Reading Habits ◽  
Reading Patterns

The aim of the research was to evaluate students' reading patterns and how they affected their academic success. The research was carried out in the Khandwa District of Nimar's Eastern Region. The data was gathered using a questionnaire. The obtained data was quantitatively studied using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS).The findings were presented in the form of graphs and charts. 100 of the 150 questionnaires circulated were filled and returned, accounting for 95.0 percent of the total. The results revealed that while the majority of respondents recognize the value of reading, 81.9 percent of respondents have not read a book or a piece of fiction in the last two semesters, and 62.0 percent of respondents still read to pass an exam.The study found that reading habits have an impact on academic success and that there is a connection between reading habits and academic achievement. The study suggested, among other things, that lecturers avoid handing out handouts to students and instead allow them to use the library for studying, and that the new method of grading students be reconsidered in terms of grading formulae.

scholarly journals Nonparametric Conditional Heteroscedastic Hourly Probabilistic Forecasting of Solar Radiation

J ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Boland ◽  
Adrian Grantham
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Local Variation ◽  
Previous Method ◽  
New Method ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Better Than

We develop a new probabilistic forecasting method for global horizontal irradiation (GHI) by extending our previous bootstrap method to a case of an exponentially decaying heteroscedastic model for tracking dynamics in solar radiance. Our previous method catered for the global systematic variation in variance of solar radiation, whereas our new method also caters for the local variation in variance. We test the performance of our new probabilistic forecasting method against our old probabilistic forecasting method at three locations: Adelaide, Darwin, and Mildura. These locations are chosen to represent three distinct climates. The prediction interval coverage probability, prediction interval normalized averaged width and Winkler score results from our new probabilistic forecasting method are encouraging. Our new method performs better than our previous method at Adelaide and Mildura; regions with a higher proportion of clear-sky days, whereas our previous method performs better than our new method at Darwin; a region with a lower proportion of clear-sky days. These results suggest that the ideal probabilistic forecasting method might be climate specific.

Taming Big Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Bail
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Nonprofit Organizations ◽  
Collective Behavior ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Computational Social Science ◽  
New Method ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Public Data

Social media websites such as Facebook and Twitter provide an unprecedented amount of qualitative data about organizations and collective behavior. Yet these new data sources lack critical information about the broader social context of collective behavior—or protect it behind strict privacy barriers. In this article, I introduce social media survey apps (SMSAs) that adjoin computational social science methods with conventional survey techniques in order to enable more comprehensive analysis of collective behavior online. SMSAs (1) request large amounts of public and non-public data from organizations that maintain social media pages, (2) survey these organizations to collect additional data of interest to a researcher, and (3) return the results of a scholarly analysis back to these organizations as incentive for them to participate in social science research. SMSAs thus provide a highly efficient, cost-effective, and secure method for extracting detailed data from very large samples of organizations that use social media sites. This article describes how to design and implement SMSAs and discusses an application of this new method to study how nonprofit organizations attract public attention to their cause on Facebook. I conclude by evaluating the quality of the sample derived from this application of SMSAs and discussing the potential of this new method to study non-organizational populations on social media sites as well.

scholarly journals Impact of Ethical Leadership on Employee Engagement: Role of Self-Efficacy and Organizational Commitment

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 962-974
Author(s):  
Fouzia Ashfaq ◽  
Ghulam Abid ◽  
Sehrish Ilyas
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Commitment ◽  
Employee Engagement ◽  
Ethical Leadership ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Moral Leadership ◽  
Leader Support ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study was to examine the roles of self-efficacy and organizational commitment in the sequential mediation of the relationship between ethical leadership and employee engagement. Data were collected through self-reported questionnaires of employees from private and public sector organizations of Pakistan. We opted for a three-wave time-lagged design, and we used the PROCESS macro by Hayes on a sample of 211 employees (35% male, 65% female) via the 2000 re-sample bias-corrected bootstrap method. The results show a significant relationship between ethical leadership and employee engagement with mediating effects of self-efficacy and organizational commitment. Self-efficacy and organizational commitment fully mediated the relationship. The results provide insight into the understanding of employee behavior, particularly in the presence of moral leadership. Drawing on the conservation of resource theory, we examined how ethical leader support enables employees to invest their resources into positive outcomes. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Thomas Clarkson’s Quaker Trilogy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dee E. Andrews ◽  
Emma Jones Lapsansky-Werner
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
French Revolution ◽  
Social Reform ◽  
Slave Trade ◽  
Social Activism ◽  
Public Life ◽  
African Slave ◽  
William Penn ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
History Of

This chapter presents a reading of Thomas Clarkson's “Quaker Trilogy”— comprising A Portraiture of Quakerism, The History of the Rise, Progress, and Accomplishment of the Abolition of the African Slave-Trade, and The Memoirs of the Private and Public Life of William Penn—appearing between 1806 and 1813. These texts embodied the author's efforts in the wake of the French Revolution to reestablish abolition of the slave trade as a respectable and still international cause. In the Portraiture and the Memoirs, Quakers were unsurprisingly center stage. But in the History, they are central as well, though with little attention given to Quaker abolitionists' on-going struggle to raise the Friends' own consciousness about the dangers of slaveholding, or Quaker activists' sometimes “strategic deceptions” for achieving abolition. In the process, Clarkson not only slanted the Friends as the unambivalent agents of antislavery and himself as the premier chronicler of this great moment in British and American social activism, but he also designed a new kind of history: one that sought to combine the empirical drive of social science with the passion of social reform.

Estimating the Variance of Bootstrapped Risk Measures

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph H.T. Kim ◽  
Mary R. Hardy
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Influence Function ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Analytic Form ◽  
Analytic Approach ◽  
New Method ◽  
Conditional Tail Expectation

AbstractIn Kim and Hardy (2007) the exact bootstrap was used to estimate certain risk measures including Value at Risk and the Conditional Tail Expectation. In this paper we continue this work by deriving the influence function of the exact-bootstrapped quantile risk measure. We can use the influence function to estimate the variance of the exact-bootstrap risk measure. We then extend the result to the L-estimator class, which includes the conditional tail expectation risk measure. The resulting formula provides an alternative way to estimate the variance of the bootstrapped risk measures, or the whole L-estimator class in an analytic form. A simulation study shows that this new method is comparable to the ordinary resampling-based bootstrap method, with the advantages of an analytic approach.

scholarly journals The Crisis of Recognition in the Context of Social Exclusion

2021 ◽  
pp. 89-94
Author(s):  
Valeriya Kopaneva
Keyword(s):  
Social Exclusion ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Public Spaces ◽  
External World ◽  
Social Practices ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
The Subject

The author suggests the idea of reflecting the experience of social exclusion and considers the problem faced by people, communities and social institutions, that is a crisis of recognition. Recognition is referred to as the process during which one subject formulates new knowledge about another and evaluates it, as a result of it a commonality arises between them. However, in the conditions of the new reality, the negative consequences of isolation are visible, which are expressed in the following forms: spatial disunity, alienation, lack of communication, lack of joint social practices, separation from the community, individualization and, as a result, non-recognition. The idea of isolation prevents recognition. Isolation implies isolation / autonomy from social contacts, difficulty in gaining new knowledge about other objects, which leads to a weakening of the mimetic aspect of recognition and an increase in the perception of the danger of the Other. At the same time, the idea of initiation, which involves crossing the border, is an integral part of recognition – this fact implies the presence of at least two spaces of different quality, that is why, it is necessary to observe the principle of horizontality. Spaces are not arranged hierarchically, in online practices there is no boundary between private and public spaces, respectively, if there is no priority of one space over another, then there is no need to give recognition. The lack of recognition leads the subject to disorientation: when it becomes difficult for him to evaluate and understand the processes occurring not only with him, but also in the external world. Thus, we conclude that online practitioners do not form communities and shared presence that prevents the expression of recognition.

Reid, Bill

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Carter Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Social Work ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
New Method ◽  
The Social ◽  
Private And Public

Bill Reid (1928–2003) was acclaimed in the social welfare field for his task-centered model—a new method and philosophy of practice for social work—which is now widely used as the basis for delivering and managing private and public social work services.

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