scholarly journals Revisiting pest sampling plans in light of economic uncertainty and risk aversion.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego F. Rincon ◽  
Hugo Fernando Rivera-Trujillo ◽  
Lorena Mojica-Ramos ◽  
Felipe Borrero-Echeverry
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Computer Simulations ◽  
Binary Data ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Decision Threshold ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Threshold ◽  
Tomato Crop ◽  
Sampling Plans

Abstract Decision-making for pest management in agriculture is often assisted by sampling plans that guide users in determining the need for an intervention. Even though Tuta absoluta is easily recognizable by most tomato growers and that several sampling plans have been developed, adoption of decision-making systems for this pest is still incipient. Two potential obstacles for adoption are market uncertainty and farmer's risk aversion. Both obstacles could be tackled by adopting sampling plans that allow farmers to plan interventions according to rough estimations of economic thresholds and the intuition and experience gained by farmers. In this study, we evaluated four sampling plans using computer simulations and field trials. We compared the efficiency and the ability of each plan to both estimate the actual mean number of larvae per plant and to classify pest populations according to a predefined economic threshold. We also analyzed the time spent, and plants examined by human subjects applying each plan on a tomato crop with a T. absoluta infestation slightly over a predefined economic threshold. We show that sampling plans that deliver the most precise classifications, are poorest in delivering pest density estimations and vice versa. Our findings are consistent for both human subjects and computer simulations. However, the average number of samples required by sampling plans does not reflect the time spent by humans sampling real plants. Our results show that sampling plans based on counts, as opposed to those based on binary data, can efficiently provide reliable information on a current level of T. absoluta infestation relative to an estimated decision threshold. We suggest that sampling plans that promote the creation of farmer's memory, such as those based on counts, may be more suitable to both reduce risk aversion and increase adaptability to market uncertainty.

scholarly journals Conformist social learning inoculates against adverse risk aversion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wataru Toyokawa ◽  
Wolfgang Gaissmaier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Negative Feedback ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Informational Cascades ◽  
Minority Influence ◽  
Positive And Negative Feedback ◽  
Error Learning

AbstractGiven the ubiquity of potentially adverse biases incurred by trial-and-error learning, it seems paradoxical that improvements in decision-making performance through conformist social learning, a process widely considered to be bias amplification, still prevail in animal behaviour. Here we show, through model analyses and online experiments with 467 adult human subjects, that conformity can promote favourable risk taking in repeated decision making, even though many individuals are systematically biased towards suboptimal risk aversion owing to the myopia of reinforcement learning. Although positive feedback conferred by conformity could result in suboptimal informational cascades, our dynamic model of behaviour identified a key role for negative feedback that arises when a weak minority influence undermines the inherent behavioural bias. This ‘collective behavioural rescue’, emerging through coordination of positive and negative feedback, highlights a benefit of social learning in a broader range of environmental conditions than previously assumed and resolves the ostensible paradox of adaptive collective flexibility through conformity.

USING REAL OPTIONS IN AN INVESTMENT VALUATION AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. 43-46
Author(s):  
T. T. ADAMIYA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Traditional Assessment ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Additional Value

The current stage of global development is characterized by opportunities for investment activity, along with an instability of the economic situation and high uncertainty, dictates the need for investors and managers to make effective decisions, taking into account constantly changing conditions. An investor, while making a decision which project to accept, for the most part, uses the standard methods of financial management as a basis for forecasting and analysis. Considering fast-moving processes of technology change, as well as the conditions of market uncertainty, significant risk and agency problems, the article proposes the use of real options as an insurance (hedging) tool for investors against risks at different stages of the investment project. Risk management can be carried out through real options - the tool of flexibility in decision making. Traditional assessment methods ignore the ability to adapt internal and external changes, however management flexibility can significantly reduce risks, and therefore create additional value.

The security of being grateful: Gratitude promotes risk aversion in decision-making

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufeng Zhang ◽  
Zhuo Job Chen ◽  
Shiguang Ni
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion

Revenue Sharing Contract of Green Supply Chain under Manufacturer Risk-Aversion

2014 ◽  
Vol 697 ◽  
pp. 482-487
Author(s):  
Shi Ying Jiang ◽  
Chun Yan Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Stackelberg Game ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
Green Supply Chain ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Revenue Sharing Contract

Background on two stages green supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer, considering the degree of risk aversion and product greenness, consumer preferences and other factors, the centralized decision-making game model and manufacturer-leading Stackelberg game model are established.Then two game models are compared. The interaction of product greenness, wholesale price, product price,and risk aversion utility for manufacturers and retailers are also disscussed. Finally, the revenue sharing contract is applied to coordinate the green supply chain . The results show that:(1) In the centralized decision-making model, there is a critical value of the product green degree; (2)In manufacturer-leading Stackelberg game model, the higher the green degree of the product, the higher the manufacturer's wholesale price,and the wholesale price increases as risk aversion degree of manufacturers improves;(3)The revenue sharing contract can coordinate this type of green supply chain under manufacturers risk-averse.

scholarly journals Same model, different conclusions: An identifiability issue in the linear ballistic accumulator model of decision-making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan J. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Drift Rate ◽  
Decision Time ◽  
Measurement Properties ◽  
Decision Threshold ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Model Application ◽  
Linear Ballistic Accumulator

Evidence accumulation models (EAMs) – the dominant modelling framework for speeded decision-making – have become an important tool for model application. Model application involves using specific model to estimate parameter values that relate to different components of the cognitive process, and how these values differ over experimental conditions and/or between groups of participants. In this context, researchers are often agnostic to the specific theoretical assumptions made by different EAM variants, and simply desire a model that will provide them with an accurate measurement of the parameters that they are interested in. However, recent research has suggested that the two most commonly applied EAMs – the diffusion model and the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) – come to fundamentally different conclusions when applied to the same empirical data. The current study provides an in-depth assessment of the measurement properties of the two models, as well as the mapping between, using two large scale simulation studies and a reanalysis of Evans (2020a). Importantly, the findings indicate that there is a major identifiability issue within the standard LBA, where differences in decision threshold between conditions are practically unidentifiable, which appears to be caused by a tradeoff between the threshold parameter and the overall drift rate across the different accumulators. While this issue can be remedied by placing some constraint on the overall drift rate across the different accumulators – such as constraining the average drift rate or the drift rate of one accumulator to have the same value in each condition – these constraints can qualitatively change the conclusions of the LBA regarding other constructs, such as non-decision time. Furthermore, all LBA variants considered in the current study still provide qualitatively different conclusions to the diffusion model. Importantly, the current findings suggest that researchers should not use the unconstrained version of the LBA for model application, and bring into question the conclusions of previous studies using the unconstrained LBA.

scholarly journals A Computational Model of Non-optimal Suspiciousness in the Minnesota Trust Game

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Kazinka ◽  
Iris Vilares ◽  
Angus MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Inequity Aversion ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Social Decision ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Social Decision Making

This study modeled spite sensitivity (the worry that others are willing to incur a loss to hurt you), which is thought to undergird suspiciousness and persecutory ideation. Two samples performed a parametric, non-iterative trust game known as the Minnesota Trust Game (MTG). The MTG is designed to distinguish suspicious decision-making from otherwise rational mistrust by incentivizing the player to trust in certain situations. Individuals who do not trust even under these circumstances are particularly suspicious of their potential partner’s intentions. In Sample 1, 243 undergraduates who completed the MTG showed less trust as the amount of money they could lose increased. However, for choices where partners had a financial disincentive to betray the player, variation in the willingness to trust the partner was associated with suspicious beliefs. To further examine spite sensitivity, we modified the Fehr-Schmidt (1999) inequity aversion model, which compares unequal outcomes in social decision-making tasks, to include the possibility for spite sensitivity. In this case, an anticipated partner’s dislike of advantageous inequity (i.e., guilt) parameter could take on negative values, with negative guilt indicating spite. We hypothesized that the anticipated guilt parameter would be strongly related to suspicious beliefs. Our modification of the Fehr-Schmidt model improved estimation of MTG behavior. We isolated the estimation of partner’s spite-guilt, which was highly correlated with choices most associated with persecutory ideation. We replicated our findings in a second sample, where the estimated spite-guilt parameter correlated with self-reported suspiciousness. The “Suspiciousness” condition, unique to the MTG, can be modeled to isolate spite sensitivity, suggesting that spite sensitivity is separate from inequity aversion or risk aversion, and may provide a means to quantify persecution. The MTG offers promise for future studies to quantify persecutory beliefs in clinical populations.

SPREAD SPECTRUM COMMUNICATION VIA CHAOS

1999 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 155-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAKOTO ITOH
Keyword(s):  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Computer Simulations ◽  
Spread Spectrum ◽  
Binary Data ◽  
Spread Spectrum Communication ◽  
And Performance

A new scheme is proposed for spread spectrum communication which transmits both analog and binary data via chaotic carriers. The proposed systems have some standard properties of spread spectrum communication. Some computer simulations and performance analysis are given to examine the validity of this scheme.

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