scholarly journals Calibration, inversion and sensitivity analysis for hydro-morphodynamic models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana Clare ◽  
Stephan Kramer ◽  
Colin Cotter ◽  
Matthew Piggott
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Code Generation ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Uncertain Parameters ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Sediment Deposits ◽  
Perform Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Coastal Ocean Model ◽  
High Degree

The development of reliable, sophisticated hydro-morphodynamic models is essential for protecting the coastal environment against hazards such as flooding and erosion. There exists a high degree of uncertainty associated with the application of these models, in part due to incomplete knowledge of various physical, empirical and numerical closure related parameters in both the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic solvers. This uncertainty can be addressed through the application of adjoint methods. These have the notable advantage that the number and/or dimension of the uncertain parameters has almost no effect on the computational cost associated with calculating the model sensitivities. Here, we develop the first freely available and fully flexible adjoint hydro-morphodynamic model framework. This flexibility is achieved through using the pyadjoint library, which allows us to assess the uncertainty of any parameter with respect to any output functional, without further code implementation. The model is developed within the coastal ocean model Thetis constructed using the finite element code-generation library Firedrake. We present examples of how this framework can perform sensitivity analysis, inversion and calibration for a range of uncertain parameters based on the final bedlevel. These results are verified using so-called dual-twin experiments, where the `correct' parameter value is used in the generation of synthetic model test data, but is unknown to the model in subsequent testing. Moreover, we show that inversion and calibration with experimental data using our framework produces physically sensible optimum parameters and that these parameters always lead to more accurate results. In particular, we demonstrate how our adjoint framework can be applied to a tsunami-like event to invert for the tsunami wave from sediment deposits.

scholarly journals Hydro-morphodynamics 2D modelling using a discontinuous Galerkin discretisation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana Clare ◽  
James Percival ◽  
Stephan Kramer ◽  
Athanasios Angeloudis ◽  
Colin Cotter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Discontinuous Galerkin ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Suspended Sediment Transport ◽  
Secondary Currents ◽  
Meandering Channel ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Coastal Ocean Model ◽  
High Degree

<p>The development of morphodynamic models to simulate sediment transport accurately is a challenging and highly complex process given the non-linear and coupled nature of the sediment transport problem. We implement a new depth-averaged coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model within the coastal ocean model Thetis, built using the code generating framework Firedrake which facilitates code flexibility and optimisation benefits. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first full morphodynamic model using a discontinuous Galerkin based finite element discretisation, to include both bedload and suspended sediment transport. We apply our model to problems with non-cohesive sediment and account for effects of gravity and helical flow by adding slope gradient terms and parametrising secondary currents. For validation purposes and to demonstrate model capability, we present results from the common test cases of a migrating trench and a meandering channel comparing against experimental data and the widely used model Telemac-Mascaret.</p><p>There is a high degree of uncertainty associated with morphodynamic models, in part due to incomplete knowledge of various physical, empirical and numerical closure related parameters in both the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic solvers. We therefore also present examples of how an adjoint model can be used to calibrate or invert for the values of these parameters from either experimental results or real-world erosion profiles.</p>

Generating Delft3D Boundary Conditions Using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kacey Edwards ◽  
Tiffany Nguyen ◽  
David Sitton
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Coastal Ocean Model

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis of OTEC-CC-MX-1 kWe Plant Prototype

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2585
Author(s):  
Jessica Guadalupe Tobal-Cupul ◽  
Estela Cerezo-Acevedo ◽  
Yair Yosias Arriola-Gil ◽  
Hector Fernando Gomez-Garcia ◽  
Victor Manuel Romero-Medina
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Caribbean Sea ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Working Fluid ◽  
Ocean Energy ◽  
Mexican Caribbean ◽  
Water Temperature Data ◽  
Mass Flows

The Mexican Caribbean Sea has potential zones for Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) implementation. Universidad del Caribe and Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnologia, with the support of the Mexican Centre of Innovation in Ocean Energy, designed and constructed a prototype OTEC plant (OTEC-CC-MX-1 kWe), which is the first initiative in Mexico for exploitation of this type of renewable energy. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis whose objective was to know, before carrying out the experimental tests, the behavior of OTEC-CC-MX-1 kWe regarding temperature differences, as well as the non-possible operating conditions, which allows us to assess possible modifications in the prototype installation. An algorithm was developed to obtain the inlet and outlet temperatures of the water and working fluid in the heat exchangers using the monthly surface and deep-water temperature data from the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and Geographically Weighted Regression Temperature Model for the Mexican Caribbean Sea. With these temperatures, the following were analyzed: fluctuation of thermal efficiency, mass flows of R-152a and water and power production. By analyzing the results, we verified maximum and minimum mass flows of water and R-152a to produce 1 kWe during a typical year in the Mexican Caribbean Sea and the conditions when the production of electricity is not possible for OTEC-CC-MX-1 kWe.

A GPU accelerated finite volume coastal ocean model

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 679-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu-dong Zhao ◽  
Shu-xiu Liang ◽  
Zhao-chen Sun ◽  
Xi-zeng Zhao ◽  
Jia-wen Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Finite Volume ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Coastal Ocean Model

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis to Uncertain Parameters of Topmodel in Tropical Regions with Application to the Middle Magdalena Valley

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Cristina Arenas Bautista ◽  
Duque-Gardeazabal Nicolas ◽  
Arboleda-Obando Pedro Felipe ◽  
Guadagnini Alberto ◽  
Riva Monica ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Uncertain Parameters ◽  
Tropical Regions

scholarly journals The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudarat Chadsuthi ◽  
Karine Chalvet-Monfray ◽  
Anuwat Wiratsudakul ◽  
Charin Modchang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Public Education ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Multiplication Rate ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Transmission Models

AbstractThe epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

scholarly journals An Unstructured Grid, Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) System

Oceanography ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changsheng Chen ◽  
Roberet Beardsley ◽  
Geoffrey Cowles
Keyword(s):  
Finite Volume ◽  
Unstructured Grid ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Coastal Ocean Model

scholarly journals The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabien Maussion ◽  
Anton Butenko ◽  
Julia Eis ◽  
Kévin Fourteau ◽  
Alexander H. Jarosch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Open Source ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. Despite of their importance for sea-level rise, seasonal water availability, and as source of geohazards, mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM, http://www.oggm.org), developed to provide a modular and open source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world. The modelling chain comprises data downloading tools (glacier outlines, topography, climate, validation data), a preprocessing module, a mass-balance model, a distributed ice thickness estimation model, and an ice flow model. The monthly mass-balance is obtained from gridded climate data and a temperature index melt model. To our knowledge, OGGM is the first global model explicitly simulating glacier dynamics: the model relies on the shallow ice approximation to compute the depth-integrated flux of ice along multiple connected flowlines. In this paper, we describe and illustrate each processing step by applying the model to a selection of glaciers before running global simulations under idealized climate forcings. Even without an in-depth calibration, the model shows a very realistic behaviour. We are able to reproduce earlier estimates of global glacier volume by varying the ice dynamical parameters within a range of plausible values. At the same time, the increased complexity of OGGM compared to other prevalent global glacier models comes at a reasonable computational cost: several dozens of glaciers can be simulated on a personal computer, while global simulations realized in a supercomputing environment take up to a few hours per century. Thanks to the modular framework, modules of various complexity can be added to the codebase, allowing to run new kinds of model intercomparisons in a controlled environment. Future developments will add new physical processes to the model as well as tools to calibrate the model in a more comprehensive way. OGGM spans a wide range of applications, from ice-climate interaction studies at millenial time scales to estimates of the contribution of glaciers to past and future sea-level change. It has the potential to become a self-sustained, community driven model for global and regional glacier evolution.

scholarly journals Adjoint-based parametric sensitivity analysis for swirling M-flames

2018 ◽  
Vol 859 ◽  
pp. 516-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calum S. Skene ◽  
Peter J. Schmid
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Frequency Response ◽  
Stokes Equations ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Perturbation Expansions ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Adjoint Solutions

A linear numerical study is conducted to quantify the effect of swirl on the response behaviour of premixed lean flames to general harmonic excitation in the inlet, upstream of combustion. This study considers axisymmetric M-flames and is based on the linearised compressible Navier–Stokes equations augmented by a simple one-step irreversible chemical reaction. Optimal frequency response gains for both axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric perturbations are computed via a direct–adjoint methodology and singular value decompositions. The high-dimensional parameter space, containing perturbation and base-flow parameters, is explored by taking advantage of generic sensitivity information gained from the adjoint solutions. This information is then tailored to specific parametric sensitivities by first-order perturbation expansions of the singular triplets about the respective parameters. Valuable flow information, at a negligible computational cost, is gained by simple weighted scalar products between direct and adjoint solutions. We find that for non-swirling flows, a mode with azimuthal wavenumber $m=2$ is the most efficiently driven structure. The structural mechanism underlying the optimal gains is shown to be the Orr mechanism for $m=0$ and a blend of Orr and other mechanisms, such as lift-up, for other azimuthal wavenumbers. Further to this, velocity and pressure perturbations are shown to make up the optimal input and output showing that the thermoacoustic mechanism is crucial in large energy amplifications. For $m=0$ these velocity perturbations are mainly longitudinal, but for higher wavenumbers azimuthal velocity fluctuations become prominent, especially in the non-swirling case. Sensitivity analyses are carried out with respect to the Mach number, Reynolds number and swirl number, and the accuracy of parametric gradients of the frequency response curve is assessed. The sensitivity analysis reveals that increases in Reynolds and Mach numbers yield higher gains, through a decrease in temperature diffusion. A rise in mean-flow swirl is shown to diminish the gain, with increased damping for higher azimuthal wavenumbers. This leads to a reordering of the most effectively amplified mode, with the axisymmetric ($m=0$) mode becoming the dominant structure at moderate swirl numbers.

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