scholarly journals ANALISA KOMPARASI NEURAL NETWORK BACKPROPAGATION DAN MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION UNTUK PERAMALAN TINGKAT INFLASI

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amrin Amrin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Absolute Deviation

Tingkat inflasi tidak dapat dianggap remeh dalam sistem perekonomian suatu negara dan pelaku bisnis pada umumnya. Jika inflasi dapat diramalkan dengan akurasi yang tinggi, tentunya dapat dijadikan dasar pengambilan kebijakan pemerintah dalam mengantisipasi aktivitas ekonomi di masa depan. Pada penelitian ini akan digunakan metode prediksi neural network backpropagation dan multiple linear regression untuk memprediksi tingkat inflasi bulanan di indonesia, selanjutnya membandingkan manakah yang terbaik dari kedua metode tersebut. Data inflasi yang digunakan bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik dari tahun 2006-2015, dimana 80% sebagai data training dan 20% sebagai data testing. Dari hasil analisis data yang dilakukan disimpulkan bahwa Performa model multiple linear regression lebih baik dibandingkan dengan metode neural network backpropagation dengan nilai mean absolute deviation (MAD) sebesar 0.0380, mean square error (MSE) sebesar 0.0023, dan nilai Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) sebesar 0.0481

scholarly journals Metode Peramalan moving Average, 1000 ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN PELUMAS PT XYZ DENGAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN NAIVE METHOD

2021 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
pp. 1000-1010
Author(s):  
Destia Anisya Ramdani ◽  
Fahriza Nurul Azizah
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Naive Method

Pelumas merupakan produk dari PT XYZ yang digunakan untuk kendaraan dan mesin-mesin industri. Peramalan umumnya dilakukan untuk meramalkan jumlah produksi di masa mendatang dengan menggunakan data historis atau data-data pada permintaan sebelumnya terhadap produk perusahaan. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menguji enam metode peramalan agar dapat mengetahui metode mana yang tepat untuk diterapkan pada PT XYZ. Peramalan pada PT XYZ ini menggunakan data historis permintaan tahun 2019 dari bulan januari hingga bulan desember yang telah merepresentasikan pola permintaan setiap tahun di PT XYZ. Data ini digunakan untuk meramalkan setahun kedepan.Penelitian kali ini akan membandingkan enam metode peramalan diantaranya metode moving average 3 bulanan, moving average 5 bulanan, exponential smoothing dengan α=0,1, exponential smoothing dengan α=0,5, exponential smoothing dengan α=0,9 dan naive method. Untuk bahan perbandingan dari keenam metode yang telah disebutkan maka diberikan peramalan yaitu dengan metode penyimpangan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), dan Absolute Presentage Error (MAPE).Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan metode peramalan exponential smoothing dengan α=0,9 dengan nilai penyimpangan MAD 2.364,50, MSE 12.448.875,06, RMSE 3.528,30 dan MAPE 0,60 dapat dikatakan metode yang lebih optimal untuk diterapkan di PT XYZ karena memiliki nilai penyimpangan paling rendah dari metode moving average 3 bulanan, moving average 5 bulanan, exponential smoothing dengan α=0,1, exponential smoothing dengan α=0,5 dan naive method.Sehingga PT XYZ untuk menentukan tingkat permintaan konsumen dapat menggunakan metode exponential smoothing dengan α=0,9, karena setelah dilakukan perbandingan dari hasil penyimpangan setiap metode dan telah terbukti bahwasannya metode exponential smoothing dengan α=0,9 memiliki nilai penyimpangan MAD 2.364,60, MSE 12.448.875,06, RMSE 3.528,30 dan MAPE 0,60 yang artinya merupakan nilai penyimpangan terkecil dari metode moving average 3 bulanan, moving average 5 bulanan, exponential smoothing dengan α=0,1, exponential smoothing dengan α=0,5, dan naive method.

scholarly journals Multiple Linear Regression Models for Predicting Nonpoint-Source Pollutant Discharge from a Highland Agricultural Region

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jae Cho ◽  
Jong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Sediment Runoff ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Pollutant Load ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Pollutant Discharge

Sediment runoff from dense highland field areas greatly affects the quality of downstream lakes and drinking water sources. In this study, multiple linear regression (MLR) models were built to predict diffuse pollutant discharge using the environmental parameters of a basin. Explanatory variables that influence the sediment and pollutant discharge can be identified with the model, and such research could play an important role in limiting sediment erosion in the dense highland field area. Pollutant load per event, event mean concentration (EMC), and pollutant load per area were estimated from stormwater survey data from the Lake Soyang basin. During the wet season, heavy rains cause large amounts of suspended sediment and the occurrence of such rains is increasing due to climate change. The explanatory variables used in the MLR models are the percentage of fields, subbasin area, and mean slope of subbasin as topographic parameters, and the number of preceding dry days, rainfall intensity, rainfall depth, and rainfall duration as rainfall parameters. In the MLR modeling process, four types of regression equations with and without log transformation of the explanatory and response variables were examined to identify the best performing regression model. The performance of the MLR models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CV(RMSE)), the ratio of the RMSE to the standard deviation of the observed data (RSR) and the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE). The performance of the MLR models of pollutant load except total nitrogen (TN) was good under the condition of RSR, and satisfactory for the NSE and R2. In the EMC and load/area models, the performance for suspended solids (SS) and total phosphorus (TP) was good for the RSR, and satisfactory for the NSE and R2. The standardized coefficients for the models were analyzed to identify the influential explanatory variables in the models. In the final performance evaluation, the results of jackknife validation indicate that the MLR models are robust.

scholarly journals Prediction of Lower Extremity Multi-Joint Angles during Overground Walking by Using a Single IMU with a Low Frequency Based on an LSTM Recurrent Neural Network

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Joohwan Sung ◽  
Sungmin Han ◽  
Heesu Park ◽  
Hyun-Myung Cho ◽  
Soree Hwang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Joint Angle ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Measurement Unit ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Overground Walking

The joint angle during gait is an important indicator, such as injury risk index, rehabilitation status evaluation, etc. To analyze gait, inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensors have been used in studies and continuously developed; however, they are difficult to utilize in daily life because of the inconvenience of having to attach multiple sensors together and the difficulty of long-term use due to the battery consumption required for high data sampling rates. To overcome these problems, this study propose a multi-joint angle estimation method based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network with a single low-frequency (23 Hz) IMU sensor. IMU sensor data attached to the lateral shank were measured during overground walking at a self-selected speed for 30 healthy young persons. The results show a comparatively good accuracy level, similar to previous studies using high-frequency IMU sensors. Compared to the reference results obtained from the motion capture system, the estimated angle coefficient of determination (R2) is greater than 0.74, and the root mean square error and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) are less than 7° and 9.87%, respectively. The knee joint showed the best estimation performance in terms of the NRMSE and R2 among the hip, knee, and ankle joints.

scholarly journals Predicting relative energy dissipation for vertical drops equipped with a horizontal screen using soft computing techniques

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Norouzi ◽  
Parveen Sihag ◽  
Rasoul Daneshfaraz ◽  
John Abraham ◽  
Vadoud Hasannia
Keyword(s):  
Energy Dissipation ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Discharge Rate ◽  
Relative Energy ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Soft Computing Techniques

Abstract This study was designed to evaluate the ability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods including ANN, ANFIS, GRNN, SVM, GP, LR, and MLR to predict the relative energy dissipation(ΔE/Eu) for vertical drops equipped with a horizontal screen. For this study, 108 experiments were carried out to investigate energy dissipation. In the experiments, the discharge rate, drop height, and porosity of the screens were varied. Parameters yc/h, yd/yc, and p were input variables, and ΔE/Eu was the output variable. The efficiencies of the models were compared using the following metrics: correlation coefficient (CC), mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE). Results indicate that the performance of the ANFIS_gbellmf based model with a CC value of 0.9953, RMSE value of 0.0069, MAE value of 0.0042, NRMSE value as 0.0092 and NSE value as 0.9895 was superior to other applied models. Also, a linear regression yielded CC = 0.9933, RMSE = 0.0083, and MAE = 0.0067. This linear model outperformed multiple linear regression models. Results from a sensitivity study suggest that yc/h is the most effective parameter for predicting ΔE/Eu.

scholarly journals IMPLEMENTASI METODE NEURAL NETWORK BACKPROPAGATION DALAM PREDIKSI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG)

SEMINASTIKA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-85
Author(s):  
Okky Barus ◽  
Christopher Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Mean Square

Pada era saat ini, Investasi saham di pasar modal merupakan aset yang sangat penting bagi beberapa golongan masyarakat dan juga bagi perusahaan. Dengan adanya investasi, secara langsung maupun tidak langsung dapat memberikan dampak bagi perusahaan maupun bagi masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dengan indeks saham: Jakarta Composite Index (JKSE). Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah Neural Network Backpropagation. Pengumpulan dataset melalui website finance.yahoo.com dengan periode 8 Mei 2018 sampai dengan 7 Mei 2021 sebanyak 757 data. Setelah melakukan proses pengolahan data, data yang tersisa adalah 724 data. Kemudian data akan dibagi menjadi 70% data training dan 30% data testing yang akan digunakan pada proses pengolahan data. Hasil pengujian menggunakan metode Neural Newtwork Backpropagation mendapatkan hasil terbaik menggunakan Kondisi ke-10 dengan nilai Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) senilai 0.010. Kemudian akan didapatkan hasil perbandingan antara harga Close aktual dengan harga Close prediksi dengan akurasi sebesar 63.06% yang dapat membantu dalam pengambilan keputusan para investor.

scholarly journals Analisis Performansi Algoritma Linear Regression dengan Generalized Linear Model untuk Prediksi Penjualan pada Usaha Mikra, Kecil, dan Menengah

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Fitria Habibatul Hamdanah ◽  
Devi Fitrianah
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Generalized Linear Model ◽  
Mean Square

Penjualan merupakan syarat mutlak kelangsungan suatu usaha, karena dengan penjualan maka akan didapatkan keuntungan. Metode Linear Regression dan Generalized Linear Model merupakan metode pendekatan yang didukung dengan perhitungan RSME. RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) berfungsi untuk mendapatkan besaran tingkat kesalahan dari hasil prediksi, dimana semakin kecil (mendekati 0) nilai RMSE maka semakin akurat nilai prediksinya. Pada setiap Usaha Mikro Kecil Menengah (UMKM) aktivitas transaksi dan pelayanan terhadap konsumen setiap harinya semakin lama semakin meningkat, sehingga tanpa disadari hal ini dapat menimbulkan tumpukan data yang semakin membesar. UMKM biasanya mengeluarkan beberapa item berbeda untuk ditawarkan ke pasar dengan harga yang berbeda, namun tidak semua barang banyak peminatnya. Keberhasilan penjualannya menentukan keberlanjutan untuk umkm itu sendiri. Pada penelitian ini akan dibandingkan penggunaan algoritma Linear Regression dengan Generalized Linear Model yang diimplementasikan pada data penjualan yang sudah diinputkan sebelumnya guna menghasilkan prediksi penjualan barang untuk tahun berikutnya. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa algoritma Linear Regression dengan nilai RSME, MSE,MAPE sebesar 1,983; 3,933; dan 1,518 sedangkan hasil dari algoritma Generalized Linear Model dengan nilai RSME, MSE, MAPE sebesar 4,827; 23,295; dan 3,882. Berdasarkan perhitungan prediksi oleh algoritma Linear Regression dan Generalized Linear Model dapat disimpulkan bahwa nilai RSME pada algoritma Linear Regression menunjukkan perhitungan paling baik dikarenakan nilai RSME paling kecil.

scholarly journals Prediction of quality attributes and maturity classification of pear fruit using laser imaging and Artificial Neural Network

Food Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (S1) ◽  
pp. 144-151
Author(s):  
S.E. Adebayo ◽  
N. Hashim
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Optical Properties ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Classification Models ◽  
Pear Fruit ◽  
Laser Imaging

In this study, the application of laser imaging technique was utilized to predict the quality attributes (firmness and soluble solids content) of pear fruit and to classify the maturity stages of the fruit harvested at different days after full bloom (dafb). Laser imaging system emitting at visible and near infra-red region (532, 660, 785, 830 and 1060 nm) was deployed to capture the images of the fruit. Optical properties (absorption ma and reduced scattering ms ʹ coefficients) at individual and combined wavelengths of the laser images of the fruit were used in the prediction and classifications of the maturity stages. Artificial neural network (ANN) was employed in the building of both prediction and classification models. Root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC), root mean square error of crossvalidation (RMSECV), correlation coefficient (r) and bias were used to test the performance of the prediction models while sensitivity and specificity were used to evaluate the classification models. The results showed that there was a very strong correlation between the ma and ms ʹ with pear development. This study had shown that optical properties of pears with ANN as prediction and classification models can be employed to both predict quality parameters of pear and classify pear into different (dafb) non-destructively.

scholarly journals Prediksi Permintaan Kargo pada Cargo Service Center Tangerang City Menggunakan Metode Gated Recurrent Unit

Repositor ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rifky Ahmad Saputra
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Service Center ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit

Pada saat ini persaingan bisnis dalam bidang layanan kargo khususnya di Indonesia semakin ketat. Terdapat beberapa perusahaan layanan kargo di Indonesia, salah satunya yaitu Cargo Service Center Tangerang City. Untuk mengantisipasi persaingan bisnis tersebut, Cargo Service Center Tangerang City harus dapat menentukan strategi manajemen usaha, baik dalam jangka menengah maupun jangka panjang. Salah satunya hal yang dapat dilakukan yaitu prediksi permintaan kargo. Pada Cargo Service Center Tangerang City terdapat data transaksi kargo mulai dari Januari 2016 hingga Septermber 2019, oleh karena itu dilakukanlah penelitian yaitu mengimplementasikan metode Gated Recurrent Unit untuk melakukan prediksi permintaan kargo. metode Gated Recurrent Unit merupakan model pengembangan dari Recurrent Neural Network yang biasa digunakan untuk melakukan prediksi pada data sekuens. Pengujian model prediksi dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan mencari nilai Root Mean Square Error terkecil dari beberapa percobaan. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model cukup baik dalam melakukan prediksi permintaan kargo, namun terdapat beberapa hasil prediksi metode Gated Recurrent Unit yang masih belum maksimal mendekati nilai aktual misalnya pada nilai aktual yang berada di titik puncak.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Network Approach for Modelling of Mercury Ions Removal from Water Using Functionalized CNTs with Deep Eutectic Solvent

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (17) ◽  
pp. 4206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seef Saadi Fiyadh ◽  
Mohamed Khalid AlOmar ◽  
Wan Zurina Binti Jaafar ◽  
Mohammed Abdulhakim AlSaadi ◽  
Sabah Saadi Fayaed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Adsorption Capacity ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Deep Eutectic Solvent ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Mercury Ions ◽  
Narx Model

Multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) functionalized with a deep eutectic solvent (DES) were utilized to remove mercury ions from water. An artificial neural network (ANN) technique was used for modelling the functionalized CNTs adsorption capacity. The amount of adsorbent dosage, contact time, mercury ions concentration and pH were varied, and the effect of parameters on the functionalized CNT adsorption capacity is observed. The (NARX) network, (FFNN) network and layer recurrent (LR) neural network were used. The model performance was compared using different indicators, including the root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean square error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R2) and relative error (RE). Three kinetic models were applied to the experimental and predicted data; the pseudo second-order model was the best at describing the data. The maximum RE, R2 and MSE were 9.79%, 0.9701 and 1.15 × 10−3, respectively, for the NARX model; 15.02%, 0.9304 and 2.2 × 10−3 for the LR model; and 16.4%, 0.9313 and 2.27 × 10−3 for the FFNN model. The NARX model accurately predicted the adsorption capacity with better performance than the FFNN and LR models.

Prediction of Significant Wave Height Using Neural Network in the Java Sea (North of Surabaya)

2017 ◽  
Vol 862 ◽  
pp. 72-77
Author(s):  
Wimala L. Dhanistha ◽  
R.A. Atmoko ◽  
P. Juniarko ◽  
Ridho Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The North ◽  
Java Sea ◽  
The City

Indonesia is an archipelago, Surabaya is the second crowded city in Indonesia. So the shipping lane and the city is comparable. Neural network is models inspired by biological neural networks and used to estimate or approximate functions that can depend on a large number of inputs and are generally unknown. Neural network is used to predict the wave height in Java Sea (The North of Surabaya). The Root Mean Square Error average for the next one hour is 0.03 and the Root Mean Square Error average for the next six hours is 0.09. That’s mean the longest the prediction, the biggest Root Mean Square error.

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