scholarly journals The predictive performance of criminal risk assessment tools used at sentencing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seena Fazel ◽  
Matthias Burghart ◽  
Thomas Fanshawe ◽  
Sharon Danielle Gil ◽  
John Monahan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Validation Studies ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Validation ◽  
Sentencing Decisions ◽  
Tool Performance ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Although risk assessment tools have been widely used to inform sentencing decisions, there is uncertainty about the extent and quality of evidence of their predictive performance when validated in new samples. Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of validation studies of ten commonly used risk assessment tools for sentencing. We identified 33 studies with 596,618 participants, among which were 24 independent validation studies with 176,664 individuals. Overall, the predictive performances of the included risk assessment tools was mixed, and ranged from poor to moderate. Tool performance was typically overestimated in studies with smaller sample sizes or studies in which tool developers were co-authors. Most studies only reported Area Under the Curve(AUC), which ranged from 0.57 to 0.75 in independent studies with more than 500participants. The majority did not report key performance measures, such as calibration and rates of false positives and negatives. In addition, most validation studies had a high risk of bias, partly due to inappropriate analytical approach used. We conclude that the key research priority is for future studies to address the key methodological shortcomings identified in this review, and policy makers should enable this research. More sufficiently powered independent validation studies are necessary.

Comparing Predictive Validity of JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪ With Sexually Abusive Youth in Long-Term Residential Custody

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 2937-2953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucinda A. Lee Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Residential Treatment Facility ◽  
Sexually Abusive ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Representative Samples

This 6-year prospective study is the first to compare two psychometrically sound risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth: JSORRAT-II and MEGA♪. Cross-validated on representative samples of over 500 youth, these measures have cutoff scores, allowing for a more exact assessment of risk. Study sample consisted of 129 male adjudicated adolescents housed in a secured residential treatment facility for sexually abusive youth. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that MEGA♪ Risk Scale was mildly predictive of sexual recidivism over a 6-year period (mean follow-up = 15.6 months)—area under the curve (AUC) = .67; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.52, 0.82]; p < .015. JSORRAT-II was not predictive (AUC = .57; 95% CI = [0.42, 0.72]; p < .297). The study contributes to scant literature on the most contemporary, statistically robust risk assessment tools for sexually abusive youth.

scholarly journals Practical and validated tool to assess falls risk in the primary care setting: a systematic review

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. e045431
Author(s):  
Wytske MA Meekes ◽  
Joke C Korevaar ◽  
Chantal J Leemrijse ◽  
Ien AM van de Goor
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Older People ◽  
Care Setting ◽  
Primary Care Setting ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Falls Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

ObjectiveAlthough several falls risk assessment tools are available, it is unclear which have been validated and which would be most suitable for primary care practices. This systematic review aims to identify the most suitable falls risk assessment tool for the primary care setting (ie, requires limited time, no expensive equipment and no additional space) and that has good predictive performance in the assessment of falls risk among older people living independently.DesignA systematic review based on prospective studies.MethodsAn extensive search was conducted in the following databases: PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane and PsycINFO. Tools were excluded if they required expensive and/or advanced software that is not usually available in primary care units and if they had not been validated in at least three different studies. Of 2492 articles published between January 2000 and July 2020, 27 were included.ResultsSix falls risk assessment tools were identified: Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, Gait Speed test, Berg Balance Scale, Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment, Functional Reach test and falls history. Most articles reported area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for these tools. Sensitivity and specificity varied substantially across studies (eg, TUG, sensitivity:10%–83.3%, specificity:28.4%–96.6%).ConclusionsGiven that none of the falls risk assessment tools had sufficient predictive performance (AUC <0.7), other ways of assessing high falls risk among independently living older people in primary care should be investigated. For now, the most suitable way to assess falls risk in the primary care setting appears to involve asking patients about their falls history. Compared with the other five tools, the falls history requires the least amount of time, no expensive equipment, no training and no spatial adjustments. The clinical judgement of healthcare professionals continues to be most important, as it enables the identification of high falls risk even for patients with no falls history.Trial registraion numberThe Netherlands Trial Register, NL7917; Pre-results.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

scholarly journals The Benefits of Risk Assessment Tools for Prostate Cancer

2012 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 662-663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian M. Thompson ◽  
Donna P. Ankerst
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Suicide risk assessment in a large public mental health service: do suicide risk classifications identify those at risk?

2021 ◽  
pp. 103985622098403
Author(s):  
Marianne Wyder ◽  
Manaan Kar Ray ◽  
Samara Russell ◽  
Kieran Kinsella ◽  
David Crompton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Public Mental Health ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Suicide Risk Assessment ◽  
Public Mental Health Service ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Introduction: Risk assessment tools are routinely used to identify patients at high risk. There is increasing evidence that these tools may not be sufficiently accurate to determine the risk of suicide of people, particularly those being treated in community mental health settings. Methods: An outcome analysis for case serials of people who died by suicide between January 2014 and December 2016 and had contact with a public mental health service within 31 days prior to their death. Results: Of the 68 people who had contact, 70.5% had a formal risk assessment. Seventy-five per cent were classified as low risk of suicide. None were identified as being at high risk. While individual risk factors were identified, these did not allow to differentiate between patients classified as low or medium. Discussion: Risk categorisation contributes little to patient safety. Given the dynamic nature of suicide risk, a risk assessment should focus on modifiable risk factors and safety planning rather than risk prediction. Conclusion: The prediction value of suicide risk assessment tools is limited. The risk classifications of high, medium or low could become the basis of denying necessary treatment to many and delivering unnecessary treatment to some and should not be used for care allocation.

Analysis of Cerebral Vascular Lesion Pools in Ischemic Stroke Based on the Analysis and the Prognostic Assessment of Risk Factors in Patients with Primary and Recurrent Ischemic Stroke

2016 ◽  
pp. 65-68
Author(s):  
Oksana Mikitey
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Recurrent Stroke ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Vascular Lesion ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Vascular Lesions ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Stroke is an important medical and social problem, and stroke risk assessment tools have difficulty on the interaction of risk factors and the effects of certain risk factors with analysis by age, gender, race, because this information fully available to global risk assessment tools. In addition, these tools tend to be focused and usually do not include the entire range of possible factors contributing. The aim of the study was to conduct a comparison of brain vascular lesions pool with ischemic stroke (II) based predictive analysis and assessment of the main risk factors in patients with primary and recurrent ischemic stroke. Prognostically significant risk factors for recurrent ischemic stroke is not effective antihypertensive therapy, multiple stenoses any one pool vascular brain, duration of hypertension (AH) over 5 years and regular smoking patients (p<0.001). In the initial localization in the second vertebrobasilar recurrent stroke was significantly (p<0.05) more developed in the same pool in women than in men; and the localization of the primary carotid AI in the pool, re-developed stroke often unreliable in the same pool in women than in men.

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