Confidence in masked orientation discrimination decisions is informed by both evidence and visibility
How do human observers determine their degree of belief of being correct in a visual discrimination decision, i.e. their confidence? According to prominent theories of confidence, the quality of stimulation should be positively related to confidence in correct decisions and negatively to confidence in incorrect decisions. However, in a backwards-masked orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA), we observed that confidence in incorrect decisions increased with stimulus quality as well. Model fitting to decision and confidence data revealed that the best explanation for the present data was the new weighted evidence and visibility model, according to which confidence is determined by evidence about the orientation as well as the general visibility of the stimulus. Signal detection models, post-decisional accumulation models, two channel models, and decision-time based models were all unable to explain the pattern of confidence as a function of SOA and decision correctness. We suggest that the metacognitive system combines several cues to being correct in visual discrimination decisions to calculate decision confidence.