Cognitive Modelling of the State of an Object-Based on a Thought Experiment

Introduction. At the current level of development of research in the field of artificial intelligence, it is defined as a set of technological solutions that allow simulating cognitive functions, obtaining results comparable to the results of human intellectual activity. In this regard, the problem arises of creating a technology that imitates the cognitive functions of analyzing the state of objects when the conditions of their functioning change. Analysis of the status of objects in the different problems of environmental, technical, social, political and other nature is carried out most often on information models. The peculiarity of their solution lies in the fact that it is necessary, as a rule, to restore indefinite, sometimes not amenable to quantitative analysis, dependencies and patterns. Since full-scale experiments in these subject areas are often impossible, and sometimes very expensive and even dangerous, the only research method in this case is a thought experiment using the method of experimental perturbations of the state of an object. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to create a method of cognitive modelling based on a thought experiment for the problem of assessing the state of an object from incomplete and fuzzy data. Methods. To implement the method of cognitive modelling based on a thought experiment, the method of a mental complete factor experiment (MСFE) is applied using the method of experimental perturbations. Results. To implement the method of cognitive modelling based on a mental experiment, a procedure has been created that evaluates the state (behaviour) of an object in a present or anticipated future situation based on the method of a mental complete factor experiment (MСFE) using the method of experimental perturbations. The developed procedure makes it possible to obtain solutions to the problem of predicting the state of a certain object in the future using incomplete and fuzzy data and using an expert “built in” to evaluate the forecasting results. Conclusion. The results of the research presented in this article, which are conceptual in nature, show the possibility of creating elements of technology that imitate the cognitive functions of analyzing the state of objects when changing the conditions of their functioning using a thought experiment. The developed method can be used to solve the problems of assessing the state of various objects when creating intelligent information analysis systems in order to obtain new knowledge about the object.

Preregistration in diverse contexts: a preregistration template for the application of cognitive models

In recent years, open science practices have become increasingly popular in psychology and related sciences. These practices aim to increase rigour and transparency in science as a potential response to the challenges posed by the replication crisis. Many of these reforms—including the increasingly used preregistration —have been designed for purely experimental work that tests straightforward hypotheses with standard inferential statistical analyses, such as assessing whether an experimental manipulation has an effect on a variable of interest. But psychology is a diverse field of research. The somewhat narrow focus of the prevalent discussions surrounding and templates for preregistration has led to debates on how appropriate these reforms are for areas of research with more diverse hypotheses and more intricate methods of analysis, such as cognitive modelling research within mathematical psychology. Our article attempts to bridge the gap between open science and mathematical psychology, focusing on the type of cognitive modelling that Crüwell et al. (Crüwell S, Stefan AM, Evans NJ. 2019 Robust standards in cognitive science. Comput. Brain Behav. 2 , 255–265) labelled model application , where researchers apply a cognitive model as a measurement tool to test hypotheses about parameters of the cognitive model. Specifically, we (i) discuss several potential researcher degrees of freedom within model application, (ii) provide the first preregistration template for model application and (iii) provide an example of a preregistered model application using our preregistration template. More broadly, we hope that our discussions and concrete proposals constructively advance the mostly abstract current debate surrounding preregistration in cognitive modelling, and provide a guide for how preregistration templates may be developed in other diverse or intricate research contexts.

Cognitive modelling application to business model choice justify of an economic organization

This article considers the urgent scientific and practical task of developing analytical tools to justify the choice and transformation of a business model for an economic organization in a rapidly changing business environment. The mathematical apparatus of cognitive modelling is proposed to use to solve this problem, which makes it possible, based on the analysis of cause- effect relationships between the most significant conditions and factors affecting the economic efficiency and competitiveness of doing business, to improve the reasonableness and reduce the subjectivity of the decisions made by its owners and top managers. An algorithm to justify the choice of a business model for an organization based on the construction and analysis of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) of business models is proposed. A common list of business factors (concepts) and a set of causality relations between each pair of concepts has been defined, and a basic FCM of the business model is developed as the basis for constructing FCM models of specific businesses. An example of the application of the developed toolkit in a strategic analysis of the conditions and factors of an organization undertaking the production of furniture, carried out to justify a change in competitive strategy and the associated transformation of the business model, is considered. The analysis has been performed using specialized cognitive modelling software developed at the department of information technologies in economics and management, branch of the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute in Smolensk. The proposed toolkit improves methods and algorithms for intelligent decision-making support in the management of economic and social objects and can find practical application in the strategic management of commercial organizations in various fields, as well as be used by professional consultants in the preparation of recommendations for business model change.

Towards an integration of two aspects of semiosis – A cognitive semiotic perspective

Meaning-making processes, understood hierarchically, in line with the Semiotic Hierarchy framework, change on various timescales. To account for and predict these changes, one can take a cognitive view on semiosis. I adopt an interdisciplinary approach combining semiotic studies and cognitive studies in an attempt to account for meaning-making activity and to predict the course of semiosis. In this context, I consider meaning-making activity as shaped by both “external” (to a semiotic system) as well as “internal” factors. I also show how both the “external” and “internal” sources of the dynamicity of meaning-making should be framed in terms of studies on cognition. I start with a non-standard, 4e approach to meaning-making. According to this framework, meaning-making processes are constituted by (and not just dependent on) environmental and bodily factors. The dynamicity of semiosis can be accounted for in terms of an experiencing, embodied subject (agent) enacting her/his/its own domain of meaningful phenomena. As I argue, this perspective on meaning-making is the cognitive foundation of the first two levels of the Semiotic Hierarchy. In the following sections I present the Peircean view on signs and semiosis, according to which semiosis is a result of the very nature of a sign and a sign system. In this view, the dynamicity of semiosis has primarily “internal” sources: it stems from the unavoidable fallibility of interpretation and synechism of signs. As I show, this aspect of semiosis can be addressed by means of standard (cognitivist) cognitive science and by means of cognitive modelling. Ultimately, I sketch a proposal of an attempt to develop a uniform cognitive framework allowing for integration of the above-mentioned aspects of semiosis – a framework based on Rowlands’ idea of the Amalgamated Mind.

When average is over: small N but many trials

Rouder & Haaf (2021) provide a valuable recipe for testing whether there are qualitative differences. This should hasten the day when psychologists routine consider individual participant data, rather than just the average of the participants’ data. Work remains to be done, however, on how to approach the issue of individual differences with the small-N, many-trials tradition that dates back to the beginning of experimental psychology and continues today in some areas, particularly cognitive modelling and perception.