Going beyond simplicity: Using machine learning to predict belief in conspiracy theories
Public and scientific interest in why people believe in conspiracy theories (CT) surged in the past years. To come up with a theoretical explanation, researchers investigated relationships of CT belief with psychological factors such as political attitudes, emotions or personality (van Prooijen & Douglas, 2018). However, recent studies put the robustness of these relationships into question (e.g., Stojanov & Halberstadt, 2020). In this study, the analysis of a representative dataset with 2025 adults uncovered that the simplicity of the current analysis routine, exhibiting high sample-specificity and neglecting complex associations of psychological factors and belief in CTs, may obscure these relationships. Further, poor replicability of CT belief associations can be detected and remedied by using a prediction-based modeling approach and machine learning models, which proposes a timely shift in the field’s analysis routine. Conceptual and theoretical implications for CT belief research and theory building are derived.