scholarly journals Facilitating Sender-Receiver Agreement in Communicated Probabilities: Is it Best to Use Words, Numbers or Both?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Mandel ◽  
Daniel Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Effective Means ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Thinking Style ◽  
Reasoning Ability ◽  
Verbal Reasoning ◽  
Hybrid Format ◽  
Best Estimates

Organizations tasked with communicating expert judgments couched in uncertainty often use numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes to fix the meaning of verbal probabilities. An experiment (N=1,202 after exclusions) was conducted to ascertain whether agreement with such a scheme was better when probabilities were presented verbally, numerically or in a hybrid “verbal + numeric” format. Across three agreement measures, the numeric and hybrid formats outperformed the verbal format and also yielded better discrimination between low and high probabilities. The hybrid format did not confer any advantage over the purely numeric format. Agreement with the standard was directly related to numeracy, verbal reasoning ability and an actively open-minded thinking style, all of which also were inversely related to incoherence (expressed as best estimates that fell outside one’s credible interval). The findings indicate that numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes are not an effective means of communicating information about probabilities to others.

Note on Reliability and Validity of Self-Evaluation of Ability Scales

1996 ◽  
Vol 82 (3) ◽  
pp. 991-994
Author(s):  
Paul Oosterveld ◽  
Harrie C. M. Vorst
Keyword(s):  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Reasoning Ability ◽  
Aptitude Test ◽  
Verbal Reasoning ◽  
Numerical Ability ◽  
Cronbach Alpha ◽  
Self Evaluation

A four-scale questionnaire on self-evaluation of ability was developed, testing 402 pupils. The Differential Aptitude Test was used as the criterion for estimating validity. Values of Cronbach alpha for the Verbal, Reasoning, Spatial, and Numerical Ability scales ranged from .74 to .86. The Reasoning Ability scale lacked validity.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of neighbourhood slow zones in New York City

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boshen Jiao ◽  
Sooyoung Kim ◽  
Jonas Hagen ◽  
Peter Alexander Muennig
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
York City ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BackgroundNeighbourhood slow zones (NSZs) are areas that attempt to slow traffic via speed limits coupled with other measures (eg, speed humps). They appear to reduce traffic crashes and encourage active transportation. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NSZs in New York City (NYC), which implemented them in 2011.MethodsWe examined the effectiveness of NSZs in NYC using data from the city’s Department of Transportation in an interrupted time series analysis. We then conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. One-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo analyses were conducted to test error in the model.ResultsAfter 2011, road casualties in NYC fell by 8.74% (95% CI 1.02% to 16.47%) in the NSZs but increased by 0.31% (95% CI −3.64% to 4.27%) in the control neighbourhoods. Because injury costs outweigh intervention costs, NSZs resulted in a net savings of US$15 (95% credible interval: US$2 to US$43) and a gain of 0.002 of a quality-adjusted life year (QALY, 95% credible interval: 0.001 to 0.006) over the lifetime of the average NSZ resident relative to no intervention. Based on the results of Monte Carlo analyses, there was a 97.7% chance that the NSZs fall under US$50 000 per QALY gained.ConclusionWhile additional causal models are needed, NSZs appeared to be an effective and cost-effective means of reducing road casualties. Our models also suggest that NSZs may save more money than they cost.

scholarly journals THE SKILLS OF JAMBI FIELD EXTENSION OFFICERS (FEO) IN WRITING RESEARCH PAPERS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 694-708
Author(s):  
Denny Denmar ◽  
Siti Rahma Sari
Keyword(s):  
Field Extension ◽  
Multiple Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Reasoning Ability ◽  
Multiple Correlation ◽  
Research Papers ◽  
Verbal Reasoning ◽  
Writing Research ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Word Selection

This research aimed to show a close relationship between: 1) The ability of verbal reasoning and the writing scientific papers skill; 2) Understanding of word selection and the writing scientific papers skill; 3) The ability to use cohesion devices and the writing scientific papers skill; 4) The ability of verbal reasoning, understanding of word selection, ability to use cohesion devices together with the writing scientific papers skill of Jambi FEO. This research used the method of survey with correlational technique. The sample of this research was 50 people who were the Civil Servants FEO, working at the Jambi Provincial Extension Office in 2019. The results showed a significant and linear relationship between 1. The verbal reasoning ability and the writing scientific papers skill, shown by the equation: Ŷ = 23,15 + 0,81 X1 2. Understanding of word selection and the writing scientific papers skill, shown by the equation: Ŷ=39,32 + 0,55 X2 3. The ability to use cohesion devices and the writing scientific papers skill, shown by the equation: Ŷ = 40,02 + 0,57 X3 4. The verbal reasoning ability, understanding of word selection, ability to use cohesion devices together with the writing scientific papers skill, shown by the equation: Ŷ = 21, 09 + 0,421 X1 + 0,16 X2 + 0,27 X3. The multiple correlation coefficient was Ry123 = 0.85, and the determination coefficient was R2 = 0.72, which means that 72% of variations in the scientific papers writing skill can be explained by the verbal reasoning ability, understanding of word selection, and the ability to use cohesion tools.

scholarly journals Students’ mahematical reasoning ability in solving TIMSS cognitive domain on Algebraic based on students’ thinking style

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Fauziah ◽  
Ilham Minggi ◽  
Ahmad Talib
Keyword(s):  
Research Study ◽  
Mathematical Reasoning ◽  
Cognitive Domain ◽  
Thinking Styles ◽  
Thinking Style ◽  
Reasoning Ability ◽  
Ability Test ◽  
Qualitative Research Study ◽  
Reasoning Abilities ◽  
Descriptive Approach

This study aims to describe the students' mathematical reasoning abilities in solving TIMSS cognitive domain reasoning problems in algebraic content in terms of the student’s thinking style of the students. The type of research is a qualitative research study with a descriptive approach. The subjects of this research consisted of one student who representing each of the concrete sequential thinking styles. The instrument of this research used consisted of thinking style questionnaires, mathematical reasoning ability test questions, and interview guidelines. The results of this study indicate that: SK thinking style subjects are able to meet four indicators of mathematical reasoning ability, namely: a) the ability to make guesses, b) the ability to draw conclusions, arrange evidence, provide reasons or evidence for the truth of the solution, c) the ability to draw the validity of an argumen, and d) the ability to find patterns or the nature of mathematical symptoms to make generalizations.

scholarly journals A study on verbal and numerical reasoning aptitude of college going students

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 413-418
Author(s):  
Dhanashree Chavan ◽  
Veena Bhalerao ◽  
Jyoti Mankar
Keyword(s):  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Reasoning Ability ◽  
Science Students ◽  
Verbal Reasoning ◽  
Numerical Ability ◽  
Numerical Reasoning ◽  
College Going ◽  
Innate Capacity ◽  
Commerce Students ◽  
Age Range

Aptitude is a pronounced innate capacity or ability in a given line of endeavor such as a particular art, subject or vocation. The present study was done by using the Differential Aptitude Test (DAT) developed by George et al. (1947). The randomly selected sample consisted of 120 boys & girls from all four basic faculties like Arts, Commerce, Science and Home Science in the age range 15 to 25 years. The findings of the study denoted that the verbal reasoning ability of Science students was comparatively higher than all other faculty students. The numerical ability of Commerce students reflected very low in comparison with the Home Science, Arts and Science students. There was a positive and significant correlation between the faculties of the students and their gender in verbal reasoning ability. The numerical ability of the students in the various faculty had significant negative correlation between the gender (-0.240) and family size (-0.205).

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