Evaluating integrated assessment models of global climate change - From philosophical aspects to practical examples

Global Climate ◽

Integrated Assessment Models ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change are an established tool to explore possible pathways of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The models are a quantitative backbone for IPCC reports. But can the models be trusted? This manuscript discusses how the models can be scrutinized and where limits to model validation exist.

US INVOLVEMENT AND RESPONSIBILITY IN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION: ADDRESSING THE ENERGY NEEDS OF ELEVEN BILLION

10.1130/abs/2018am-324600 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Kevin Warner ◽

◽

Glenn Jones

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Energy Needs ◽

Ethylene Supply in a Fluid Context: Implications of Shale Gas and Climate Change

Energies ◽

10.3390/en11112967 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 2967 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Gillian Foster

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Natural Gas ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Shale Gas ◽

Global Climate ◽

The United States ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

The recent advent of shale gas in the U.S. has redefined the economics of ethylene manufacturing globally, causing a shift towards low-cost U.S. production due to natural gas feedstock, while reinforcing the industry’s reliance on fossil fuels. At the same time, the global climate change crisis compels a transition to a low-carbon economy. These two influencing factors are complex, contested, and uncertain. This paper projects the United States’ (U.S.) future ethylene supply in the context of two megatrends: the natural gas surge and global climate change. The analysis models the future U.S. supply of ethylene in 2050 based on plausible socio-economic scenarios in response to climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways as well as a range of natural gas feedstock prices. This Vector Error Correction Model explores the relationships between these variables. The results show that ethylene supply increased in nearly all modeled scenarios. A combination of lower population growth, lower consumption, and higher natural gas prices reduced ethylene supply by 2050. In most cases, forecasted CO2 emissions from ethylene production rose. This is the first study to project future ethylene supply to go beyond the price of feedstocks and include socio-economic variables relevant to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 166 (1-2) ◽

Author(s):

Charlie Wilson ◽

Céline Guivarch ◽

Elmar Kriegler ◽

Bas van Ruijven ◽

Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Evaluation Method ◽

Evaluation Research ◽

Evaluation Framework ◽

Systematic Evaluation ◽

Integrated Assessment Models ◽

Wide Range ◽

AbstractProcess-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-018-03406-6 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 101

Author(s):

J. Leifeld ◽

L. Menichetti

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

PERAN TEGAKAN SENGON DI HUTAN TANAMAN INDUSTRI DALAM MITIGASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GLOBAL (The Role of Sengon’s Stand at Forest Plantation in Global Climate Change Mitigation)

HUTAN TROPIKA ◽

10.36873/jht.v14i2.1149 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 71-79

Author(s):

Admin JHT

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Carbon Stock ◽

Global Climate ◽

Co2 Uptake ◽

Biomass Carbon ◽

Forest Plantation ◽

Carbon Dioxide Uptake ◽

ABSTRACTThis research aims to estimate the biomass, carbon storage, carbon dioxide uptake andoxygen produced by sengon (Paraserianthes falcataria (L.) Nielsen) stand aged 9, 11and 13 years in IUPHHK-HTI PT Parwata Rimba, Central Kalimantan. Estimated ofbiomass, carbon stock, CO2 uptake and Oxygen produced using allometric equations.The results showed that the storage of sengon standing biomass aged 9,11 and 13 yearsranged from 110.71 to 200.94 tons/ha, carbon stock ranged from 52.03 to 94.44 tons C/ha, CO2 uptake ranged from 190.79 to 259.13 tons CO2/ha and Oxygen produced around138.75 to 251.84 tons O2/ha. The total of biomass, carbon stock, CO2 uptake and Oxygenproduced by sengon stands at forest plantations are large enough to have an importantrole in global climate change mitigation in the forestry sector.Keywords: biomassa, climate change, forest plantation, karbon, sengon

Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

Nature Climate Change ◽

10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (8) ◽

pp. 699-703 ◽

Cited By ~ 83

Author(s):

Tomoko Hasegawa ◽

Shinichiro Fujimori ◽

Petr Havlík ◽

Hugo Valin ◽

Benjamin Leon Bodirsky ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Insecurity ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Mitigation Policy ◽

Climate Change Mitigation Policy ◽

A CGE Analysis of the Effects of Global Climate Change Mitigation Policies on India

Climate Change and Environmental Concerns ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-5487-5.ch029 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 573-590

Author(s):

Basanta K. Pradhan ◽

Joydeep Ghosh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Carbon Tax ◽

Global Climate ◽

Value Added ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Mitigation Policy ◽

Change Mitigation ◽

Mitigation Policies

This paper compares the effects of a global carbon tax and a global emissions trading regime on India using a dynamic CGE framework. The sensitivity of the results to the value of a crucial elasticity parameter is also analysed. The results suggest that the choice of the mitigation policy is relatively unimportant from an efficiency perspective. However, the choice of the mitigation policy and the value of the substitution elasticity between value added and energy were found to be important determinants of welfare effects. Global climate change mitigation policies have the potential for promoting low carbon and inclusive growth in India.