COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock
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Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity of employees to work from home, and against those with a low capacity.
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2008 ◽
Vol 98
(5)
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pp. 1943-1977
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2007 ◽
Vol 227
(3)
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2018 ◽
Vol 28
(1)
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pp. 177-202
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2018 ◽
Vol 78
(3)
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pp. 163
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