Towards a Comprehensive Measure of the Ambient Population: Building Estimates Using Geographically Weighted Regression
Estimates of the resident population fail to account for human mobility, which significantly impacts the numbers of people in urban areas. Employing the ambient population provides a more nuanced approach to small-area population estimation. This paper utilises statistical modelling and novel data to estimate the size of the ambient population in an urban area. Models of the daytime and night-time ambient populations are produced for the city of Leeds, West Yorkshire, UK. Interestingly, the presence of cash machines and hospitality venues were found to be statistically significant and were identified as the most important predictors of the ambient population. In contrast to the literature, the number of retail hubs, transport hubs, and the density of mobile phone cell towers were not found to have statistically significant relationships with footfall camera counts. Footfall camera data and the results of the predictive model were validated through comparison with manually collected pedestrian counts. The results of this validation process demonstrated that at five out of the six locations in Leeds city centre, the model produced expected estimates of the size of the ambient population. The results suggest that the approach of this study can be used as a tool to inform decision-making within local government and studies in which small area estimates of ambient populations are required.