scholarly journals COVID-19 and Social Distancing Measures in Queensland Australia Are Associated with Short-Term Decreases in Recorded Violent Crime

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Leslie Payne ◽  
Anthony Morgan ◽  
Alex R. Piquero
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Violence ◽  
Sexual Assault ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
Arima Modeling

Since first diagnosed in late 2019, there have been more than 4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than a quarter of a million deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the virus through the adoption of unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Whether these policies have altered criminal activity is an important question. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March and April, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offense and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March and April 2020. We conclude that by the end of April, rates of common, serious and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years, and for serious assault and sexual assault the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached in Queensland has remained unchanged throughout the first two months of the pandemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Violent Crime: A comparison of recorded offence rates and dynamic forecasts (ARIMA) for March 2020 in Queensland, Australia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Leslie Payne ◽  
Anthony Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Violent Offending ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
History Of ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
Regulatory Interventions ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Arima Modeling

At the time of writing, there was 2.9 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 200,000 deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Among these government and regulatory interventions includes unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as a raft of stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Each has left criminologists wondering what impact this will have on crime in both the short- and long-term. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offence and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March 2020. We conclude that the observed rates of reported violent offending across Queensland were not--at least not so far--significantly different from what was expected given the history of each offence series.

scholarly journals Enacting an Improved Response to Sexual Assault: A Criminal Justice Practitioner’s Guide

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia A. Melton
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Violence ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Sexual Assault ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Sexual Assaults ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Violent Crimes ◽  
Serial Offenders

Sexual assault is a violent crime that traumatizes individual victims and endangers entire communities. Every victim of sexual assault deserves an opportunity for justice and access to the resources they need to recover from this trauma. In addition, many perpetrators of sexual assaults are serial offenders who also commit other violent crimes, including armed robberies, aggravated assaults, burglary, domestic violence, and homicides, against strangers and acquaintances. Criminal justice agencies have the power to create a strategic, sustainable plan for an improved response to sexual assault that aligns with current best practices and national recommendations. In this document, we define an “improved response” as an approach that supports effective investigation and prosecution of sexual assault cases, holds perpetrators accountable, and promotes healing and recovery for victims of sexual assault. This guide will help prosecutor and law enforcement agencies create a process with milestones, goals, and suggested actions, all designed to support a successful and sustainable approach for addressing sexual assault cases. Improving the criminal justice system’s response to sexual assault ultimately improves public safety and promotes trust between criminal justice agencies and the communities they serve.

scholarly journals Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheryl L. Chang ◽  
Nathan Harding ◽  
Cameron Zachreson ◽  
Oliver M. Cliff ◽  
Mikhail Prokopenko
Keyword(s):  
Computational Simulation ◽  
International Travel ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
High Level ◽  
And Control

Abstract There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13–14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

Only vaccines or drugs will end social distancing

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Travel ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
London School ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
The Impact

Significance Studies currently estimate that only a small fraction of people were infected prior to strict social-distancing enforcement. A major second wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths is likely if countries exit lockdowns without strategies to reduce transmissibility of the virus. However, policymakers have few tried-and-tested strategies to fall upon as the situation is unprecedented. Researchers are now rushing to produce models to estimate the impact of epidemic mitigation strategies while they wait for more data. Impacts A new London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine platform, pooling worldwide interventions, could help clarify intervention effects. Long-term social distancing will particularly harm the wellbeing of the unemployed, self-employed and elderly in particular. Continued remote working or cyclical return to work will help moderate demand on healthcare capacity in the medium term. International travel restrictions will have a lasting impact on the travel and tourism sectors.

scholarly journals How does globalization affect COVID-19 responses?

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve J. Bickley ◽  
Ho Fai Chan ◽  
Ahmed Skali ◽  
David Stadelmann ◽  
Benno Torgler
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
High Government

Abstract Background The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast differences in approaches to the control and containment of coronavirus across the world and has demonstrated the varied success of such approaches in minimizing the transmission of coronavirus. While previous studies have demonstrated high predictive power of incorporating air travel data and governmental policy responses in global disease transmission modelling, factors influencing the decision to implement travel and border restriction policies have attracted relatively less attention. This paper examines the role of globalization on the pace of adoption of international travel-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to offer advice on how to improve the global planning, preparation, and coordination of actions and policy responses during future infectious disease outbreaks with empirical evidence. Methods and data We analyzed data on international travel restrictions in response to COVID-19 of 185 countries from January to October 2020. We applied time-to-event analysis to examine the relationship between globalization and the timing of travel restrictions implementation. Results The results of our survival analysis suggest that, in general, more globalized countries, accounting for the country-specific timing of the virus outbreak and other factors, are more likely to adopt international travel restrictions policies. However, countries with high government effectiveness and globalization were more cautious in implementing travel restrictions, particularly if through formal political and trade policy integration. This finding is supported by a placebo analysis of domestic NPIs, where such a relationship is absent. Additionally, we find that globalized countries with high state capacity are more likely to have higher numbers of confirmed cases by the time a first restriction policy measure was taken. Conclusions The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalization and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis. We suggest that the observed caution of policy implementation by countries with high government efficiency and globalization is a by-product of commitment to existing trade agreements, a greater desire to ‘learn from others’ and also perhaps of ‘confidence’ in a government’s ability to deal with a pandemic through its health system and state capacity. Our results suggest further research is warranted to explore whether global infectious disease forecasting could be improved by including the globalization index and in particular, the de jure economic and political, and de facto social dimensions of globalization, while accounting for the mediating role of government effectiveness. By acting as proxies for a countries’ likelihood and speed of implementation for international travel restriction policies, such measures may predict the likely time delays in disease emergence and transmission across national borders.

Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault Service Providers’ Perspectives on Nigerian Immigrants’ Domestic Violence Experiences

2020 ◽  
pp. 107780122095426
Author(s):  
Ijeoma Nwabuzor Ogbonnaya ◽  
Olufunmilayo Ibitola Fawole ◽  
Cynthia Fraga Rizo
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Violence ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Sexual Assault ◽  
Support Groups ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Support Needs ◽  
Service Needs ◽  
Nigerian Immigrants ◽  
Related Service ◽  
Controlling Behavior

We investigated 13 domestic violence (DV) and sexual assault agency directors’ perspectives regarding Nigerian immigrants’ experiences of violence, DV-related service needs, and best strategies for providing those needs. Directors across five U.S. states were surveyed. Descriptive analyses showed the most common DV types were controlling behavior and cultural/traditional. The most important DV support needs were informational, informal, and legal. Formal support from DV agencies, support groups, and law enforcement was rated the most helpful strategies. Participants wanted to learn more about Nigerian immigrants’ DV experiences. Findings highlight implications for the development of Nigerian-specific DV services.

The U.S. Marine Corps’ Response to Intimate Partner Sexual Violence: An Analysis of the Family Advocacy Program and the Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Program

2020 ◽  
pp. 0095327X2097439
Author(s):  
Stephanie Bonnes ◽  
Jeffrey H. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Violence ◽  
Sexual Assault ◽  
Sexual Violence ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Sexual Assault Prevention ◽  
Family Advocacy ◽  
Advocacy Program ◽  
Assault Prevention ◽  
The U.S

In this article, we show how the U.S. military treats domestic violence and sexual assault as distinct forms of abuse, which has particular consequences for victims of intimate partner sexual violence. We explore how a specific U.S. military branch, the Marine Corps, complicates these issues further by providing services to intimate partner sexual violence victims from two different programs. Analyzing military orders and documents related to Family Advocacy Program and Sexual Assault Prevention and Response program, interviews with eight military prosecutors, and the experiences of one military lawyer, we examine program and interactional-level factors that shape victim services, advocacy, and processes. We find that there are program differences in specialized services, coordinated services, and potential breaches of confidentiality related to victim’s cases. We recommend that the Marine Corps recognize the intersections of sexual violence and domestic violence and offer more tailored services to victims of intimate partner sexual violence.

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