How does globalization affect COVID-19 responses?

Abstract Background The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast differences in approaches to the control and containment of coronavirus across the world and has demonstrated the varied success of such approaches in minimizing the transmission of coronavirus. While previous studies have demonstrated high predictive power of incorporating air travel data and governmental policy responses in global disease transmission modelling, factors influencing the decision to implement travel and border restriction policies have attracted relatively less attention. This paper examines the role of globalization on the pace of adoption of international travel-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to offer advice on how to improve the global planning, preparation, and coordination of actions and policy responses during future infectious disease outbreaks with empirical evidence. Methods and data We analyzed data on international travel restrictions in response to COVID-19 of 185 countries from January to October 2020. We applied time-to-event analysis to examine the relationship between globalization and the timing of travel restrictions implementation. Results The results of our survival analysis suggest that, in general, more globalized countries, accounting for the country-specific timing of the virus outbreak and other factors, are more likely to adopt international travel restrictions policies. However, countries with high government effectiveness and globalization were more cautious in implementing travel restrictions, particularly if through formal political and trade policy integration. This finding is supported by a placebo analysis of domestic NPIs, where such a relationship is absent. Additionally, we find that globalized countries with high state capacity are more likely to have higher numbers of confirmed cases by the time a first restriction policy measure was taken. Conclusions The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalization and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis. We suggest that the observed caution of policy implementation by countries with high government efficiency and globalization is a by-product of commitment to existing trade agreements, a greater desire to ‘learn from others’ and also perhaps of ‘confidence’ in a government’s ability to deal with a pandemic through its health system and state capacity. Our results suggest further research is warranted to explore whether global infectious disease forecasting could be improved by including the globalization index and in particular, the de jure economic and political, and de facto social dimensions of globalization, while accounting for the mediating role of government effectiveness. By acting as proxies for a countries’ likelihood and speed of implementation for international travel restriction policies, such measures may predict the likely time delays in disease emergence and transmission across national borders.

Download Full-text

How Does Globalization Affect COVID-19 Responses?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-39311/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Steve J. Bickley ◽

Ho Fai Chan ◽

Ahmed Skali ◽

David Stadelmann ◽

Benno Torgler

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

State Capacity ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

International Travel ◽

Policy Integration ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Policy Responses ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

High Government

Abstract Background: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast differences in approaches to the control and containment of coronavirus across the world and has demonstrated the varied success of such approaches in minimizing the transmission of coronavirus. While previous studies have demonstrated high predictive power of incorporating air travel data and governmental policy responses in global disease transmission modelling, factors influencing the decision to implement travel and border restriction policies have attracted relatively less attention. This paper examines the role of globalization on the pace of adoption of international travel-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to offer advice on how to improve the global planning, preparation, and coordination of actions and policy responses during future infectious disease outbreaks with empirical evidence.Results: The results of our survival analysis suggest that more globalized countries, accounting for the country-specific timing of the virus outbreak and other factors, are quicker to adopt international travel restrictions policies. However, countries with high government effectiveness were more cautious in the implementation of travel restrictions if they are more globalized, particularly if through formal political and trade policy integration. This finding is supported by a placebo analysis on domestic NPIs, where such a relationship is absent. Additionally, we find that globalized countries with high state capacity are more likely to have higher numbers of confirmed cases by the time a first restriction policy measure was taken. Conclusions: The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalization and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis. We suggest that the observed caution of policy implementation by countries with high government efficiency and globalization is a by-product of commitment to existing trade agreements, a greater desire to ‘learn from others’ and also perhaps of ‘confidence’ in a government’s ability to deal with a pandemic through its health system and state capacity. Our results suggest further research is warranted to explore whether global infectious disease forecasting could be improved by including the globalization index and in particular, the de jure trade and political (sub)dimensions and de facto interpersonal and cultural (sub)dimensions of globalization. By acting as proxies for a countries’ likelihood and speed of implementation for international travel restriction policies, such measures may predict the likely time delays in disease emergence and transmission across national borders.

Download Full-text

An empirical test of the role of small-scale transmission in large-scale disease dynamics

10.1101/285080 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Joseph R. Mihaljevic ◽

Carlos M. Polivka ◽

Constance J. Mehmel ◽

Chentong Li ◽

Vanja Dukic ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Large Scale ◽

Empirical Test ◽

Disease Model ◽

Individual Variability ◽

Host Susceptibility ◽

Small Scale ◽

Unconstrained Model

AbstractA key assumption of models of infectious disease is that population-scale spread is driven by transmission between host individuals at small scales. This assumption, however, is rarely tested, likely because observing disease transmission between host individuals is non-trivial in many infectious diseases. Quantifying the transmission of insect baculoviruses at a small scale is in contrast straightforward. We fit a disease model to data from baculovirus epizootics (= epidemics in animals) at the scale of whole forests, while using prior parameter distributions constructed from branch-scale experiments. Our experimentally-constrained model fits the large-scale data very well, supporting the role of small-scale transmission mechanisms in baculovirus epizootics. We further compared our experimentally-based model to an unconstrained model that ignores our experimental data, serving as a proxy for models that include large-scale mechanisms. This analysis supports our hypothesis that small-scale mechanisms are important, especially individual variability in host susceptibility to the virus. Comparison of transmission rates in the two models, however, suggests that large-scale mechanisms increase transmission compared to our experimental estimates. Our study shows that small-scale and large-scale mechanisms drive forest-wide epizootics of baculoviruses, and that synthesizing mathematical models with data collected across scales is key to understanding the spread of infectious disease.

Download Full-text

Implications of a travel connectivity-based approach for infectious disease transmission risks in Oceania

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046206 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. e046206

Author(s):

Angela Cadavid Restrepo ◽

Luis Furuya-Kanamori ◽

Helen Mayfield ◽

Eric Nilles ◽

Colleen L Lau

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

French Polynesia ◽

International Travel ◽

Emerging Pathogens ◽

The World ◽

The Usa ◽

The Uk

IntroductionThe increase in international travel brought about by globalisation has enabled the rapid spread of emerging pathogens with epidemic and pandemic potential. While travel connectivity-based assessments may help understand patterns of travel network-mediated epidemics, such approaches are rarely carried out in sufficient detail for Oceania where air travel is the dominant method of transportation between countries.DesignTravel data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Stats NZ and the United Nations World Tourism Organization websites were used to calculate travel volumes in 2018 within Oceania and between Oceania and the rest of the world. The Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI) was incorporated into the analysis as an indicator of each country’s capacity to contain an outbreak. Travel networks were developed to assess the spread of infectious diseases (1) into and from Oceania, (2) within Oceania and (3) between each of the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) and their most connected countries.ResultsOceania was highly connected to countries in Asia, Europe and North America. Australia, New Zealand and several PICTs were highly connected to the USA and the UK (least vulnerable countries for outbreaks based on the IDVI), and to China (intermediate low vulnerable country). High variability was also observed between the PICTs in the geographical distribution of their international connections. The PICTs with the highest number of international connections were Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam and Papua New Guinea.ConclusionTravel connectivity assessments may help to accurately stratify the risk of infectious disease importation and outbreaks in countries depending on disease transmission in other parts of the world. This information is essential to track future requirements for scaling up and targeting outbreak surveillance and control strategies in Oceania.

Download Full-text

The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 62

Author(s):

Matteo Chinazzi ◽

Jessica T. Davis ◽

Marco Ajelli ◽

Corrado Gioannini ◽

Maria Litvinova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Mainland China ◽

International Travel ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Rapid Spread ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Imported Cases ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Disease Transmission Model ◽

The Impact

AbstractMotivated by the rapid spread of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of both domestic and international travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the evidence of internationally imported cases before the implementation of the travel quarantine of Wuhan. By assuming a generation time of 7.5 days, the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.4 [90% CI 2.2-2.6]. The median estimate for number of cases before the travel ban implementation on January 23, 2020 is 58,956 [90% CI 40,759 - 87,471] in Wuhan and 3,491 [90% CI 1,924 - 7,360] in other locations in Mainland China. The model shows that as of January 23, most Chinese cities had already received a considerable number of infected cases, and the travel quarantine delays the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days. The travel quarantine has a more marked effect at the international scale, where we estimate the number of case importations to be reduced by 80% until the end of February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

Download Full-text

PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AND COVID-19 : A NARRATIVE REVIEW

10.36106/ijar/1914967 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 52-54

Author(s):

Pranchita Tiwari ◽

Swati Bachani

Keyword(s):

Distribution System ◽

Global Economy ◽

Job Insecurity ◽

International Travel ◽

World Health ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Public Distribution System ◽

International Solidarity ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Health Organization

Without definite measures, the latest global health crisis COVID-19 can lead to a food security crisis. (Fan, 2020) World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed the spread of pandemic to 216 countries with over 10 million active cases.(WHO, 2020) With the massive rate of transmission, the disease has even indirectly infected the other realms of society as well. The global economy is already struck by the inevitable, lasting recession posing deeper social and political amendments.(Pathak et al., 2020) Governments imposing lockdowns constrained inter-state transport and international travel restrictions have disrupted the logistics and supply chain for the manufacturers, distributors, and consumers as well. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development presented a report claiming the automotive commerce (-47%), elementary material productions (-116%) and energy industry (-208%) are the hardest hit sector by COVID-19, cutting the global investment by 40%. (UNCTAD, 2020) Financial problems, downsizing, limiting access, increased job insecurity, reduced income localized price hikes, shortage of labors due to out-migration, and others are significant apprehensions. UN Department Economic and Social Affairs stated that at the worst extreme, the global economy could even condense by approximately 1% in 2020. (Press Trust of India, 2020) The crisis scenario can only be improved by harmonized decisions, international solidarity, innovative policymaking, and firm decisions by leading global economies.

Download Full-text

Policies for Easing COVID-19 Pandemic Travel Restrictions

10.1101/2021.04.14.21255465 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Thien Minh Le ◽

Raynal Louis ◽

Octavious Talbot ◽

Hali L Hambridge ◽

Christopher Drovandi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Relative Effectiveness ◽

Policy Coordination ◽

International Travel ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Viral Spread ◽

Country Level ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Airline Travel ◽

Global Coordination

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented international travel restrictions that aimed to contain viral spread while still allowing necessary cross-border travel for social and economic reasons. The relative effectiveness of these approaches for controlling the pandemic has gone largely unstudied. Here we developed a flexible network meta-population model to compare the effectiveness of international travel policies, with a focus on evaluating the benefit of policy coordination. Because country-level epidemiological parameters are unknown, they need to be estimated from data; we accomplished this using approximate Bayesian computation, given the nature of our complex stochastic disease transmission model. Based on simulation and theoretical insights we find that, under our proposed policy, international airline travel may resume up to 58% of the pre-pandemic level with pandemic control comparable to that of a complete shutdown of all airline travel. Our results demonstrate that global coordination is necessary to allow for maximum travel with minimum effect on viral spread.

Download Full-text

Academic activism on behalf of children during the COVID-19 pandemic in Israel; beyond public health advocacy

Israel Journal of Health Policy Research ◽

10.1186/s13584-021-00485-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ora Paltiel ◽

Hagit Hochner ◽

David Chinitz ◽

A. Mark Clarfield ◽

Alex Gileles-Hillel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Control Measure ◽

Scientific Work ◽

School Closure ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Considerable Uncertainty ◽

Course Of Action ◽

Academic Activism

AbstractAmong the challenges presented by the SARS-CoV2 pandemic are those related to balancing societal priorities with averting threats to population health. In this exceptional context a group of Israeli physicians and public health scholars (multidisciplinary academic group on children and coronavirus [MACC]) coalesced, examining the role of children in viral transmission and assessing the necessity and consequences of restricted in-class education. Combining critical appraisal and analytical skills with public health experience, MACC advocated for safe and monitored school re-opening, stressing the importance of education as a determinant of health, continuously weighing this stance against evolving COVID-19-risk data. MACC’s activities included offering research-based advice to government agencies including Ministries of Health, Finance, and Education. In a setting where government bodies were faced with providing practical solutions to both decreasing disease transmission and maintaining society’s vital activities, and various advisors presented decision-makers with disparate views, MACC contributed epidemiological, clinical and health policy expertise to the debate regarding school closure as a pandemic control measure, and adaptations required for safe re-opening. In this paper, we describe the evolution, activities, policy inputs and media profile of MACC, and discuss the role of academics in advocacy and activism in the midst of an unprecedented public health crisis. A general lesson learned is that academics, based on the rigor of their scientific work and their perceived objectivity, can and should be mobilized to pursue and promote policies based on shared societal values as well as empiric data, even when considerable uncertainty exists about the appropriate course of action. Mechanisms should be in place to open channels to multidisciplinary academic groups and bring their input to bear on decision-making.

Download Full-text

How Does Globalisation Affect COVID-19 Responses?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-39311/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Steve J. Bickley ◽

Ho Fai Chan ◽

Ahmed Skali ◽

David Stadelmann ◽

Benno Torgler

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

International Travel ◽

Health Crisis ◽

Public Health Crisis ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

First Response ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Global Events ◽

Travel Policy ◽

Travel Restriction

Abstract Purpose This paper examines the effects of globalisation on the pace of governments implementing international travel restrictions during the recent coronavirus pandemic. Results We find that more globalised countries experienced a longer delay in implementing international travel restriction policies with respect to the date of the first confirmed COVID-19 case. We also find that informational (a subcomponent of social globalisation) and political globalisation have the strongest effects on the observed delays in implementing international travel restriction policies in more globalised countries. Lastly, we do not find evidence that more globalised countries are more likely to adopt a more restrictive international travel policy as the first response to the pandemic. Conclusions The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalisation and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis.

Download Full-text

Oceans and COVID-19: Perspectives, Reflections, Recovery and Regulatory Frameworks

Sustainable Marine Structures ◽

10.36956/sms.v2i1.238 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Saleem Mustafa ◽

John Hill ◽

Sitti Raehanah M. Shaleh ◽

Abentin Estim ◽

Zarinah Waheed ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Global Economy ◽

International Travel ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Health Economy ◽

Human Consumption ◽

Conservation Action ◽

Health Crisis ◽

The World

The Novel Coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan city of China in December 2019 assumed the global pandemic proportions during 2020. The disease it causes (termed as COVID-19) has created an unprecedented public health crisis, taken 1,324,461 lives so far, infected 54,817,231 people around the world, battered the global economy and paralyzed the normal activity. The world has been pushed into recession with resulting long-term financial hardship and social misery for all and global goals of development have been challenged. This situation is evolving so rapidly that the data on numbers of infections and deaths are changing daily and the economic impacts are difficult to evaluate at this stage and probably will not be exactly known in the near future. There will be domino effects of the containment and mitigation measures that will be implemented for years to come. It is important to determine the genesis of the outbreak to understand the root causes of COVID-19 and to prevent such pandemics from occurring in the future. It is believed that the virus originated in a seafood market in Wuhan that was also trading in wildlife for human consumption. Such practices are associated with the habitat degradation and biodiversity loss, leading to an imbalance of the natural ecosystems. The zoonotic spillover of this infectious outbreak is a reflection of this impairment of natural systems. While concern for biodiversity is fairly widespread, its practical translation into conservation action is slow. One strategy is to invest more efforts into linking biodiversity with issues that affect daily life such as food security, public health, economy and the general wellbeing of the societies. In addition, the role of oceans, whether direct or indirect, must be examined and recognized. Scientific and anecdotal evidences demonstrate the significance of marine critical habitats in combating and containing human diseases. Marine bioprospecting for antiviral compounds in many marine organisms can lead to identification of organisms possessing curative properties that can be used to treat the COVID-19 patients until vaccines are developed and made available. There are many other ways in which the oceans can help in human health. In addition to providing an analysis of the COVID-10 outbreak, this paper also suggests knowledge-based and informed measures that need to be applied to prevent a repeat of such catastrophic events while highlighting the role of oceans in this context. However, the Covid-19 pandemic is a unique phenomenon and the current models relating to its growth and development are limited both in terms of credibility and effectiveness. Thus, a serious introspection is needed to holistically investigate the consequences of COVID-19 as the world moves towards rebuilding the economies and societies. The disruption of supply chains, the closure of industries, the collapse of domestic and international travel, coupled with widespread unemployment, are some of the most visible disruptions to normal living. The growth, societal paradigms and existing systems of governance should be up for a review. Plans and strategies for recovering the global economy and ensuring its resilience will require incorporating natural and ecosystem restoration in conjunction with implementing the concept of sustainable living. In this context, sustainability of the oceans is a key consideration in the development of a framework for post-COVID-19 recovery and this aspect is the major focus of this paper.

Download Full-text

Indian Lifestyle With Ayurveda Perspective During Covid-19 Pandemic

International Journal of Research in Pharmaceutical Sciences ◽

10.26452/ijrps.v11ispl1.3668 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽

pp. 1396-1399

Author(s):

Disha Bhatero ◽

Punam Sawarkar ◽

Gaurav Sawarkar

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Resistance ◽

Prevalence Rate ◽

Code Of Conduct ◽

Google Scholar ◽

Research Articles ◽

Narrative Form ◽

Healthy Individuals ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Covid-19 is an infectious disease caused by novel Coronavirus. The overall prevalence rate of Covid-19 in Worldwide ( 9.94M )& it is (529 K) & (153 K) in India and Maharashtra. This situation can be considered under JanapadodhwansaVyadhi in Ayurveda. The primary purpose of Ayurveda is the prevention of the disease in healthy individuals and eradication of disease, which are curable. Immunity comes under the Vyadhikshamatva. Further, Covid-19 infection is correlated with Vataj-Kaphaj Jwara. In Ayurveda Rasayana therapy to boost up immunity (Bala & Vyadhikshamatva). The present study aimed to explore the concept of infectious disease and its prevention through different lifestyles described in Ayurveda. The above need-based information is collected from various Ayurvedicliterature (Laghutrayee, Bruhatryayi) along with numerous research articles from databases, such as PubMed, Google Scholar. All collected data were depicted in narrative form and tabular manner under different heads. Considering the above aspect in the prevention of Covid-19, the role of Ayurveda intervention may be proved more beneficial in Covid-19. Further, adoption of code of conduct may efficiently overcome the current pandemic situation by maintaining good immunity & implementation of Ahar, Vihar Vidhis, Dincharya, and Rutucharya& Sadvritta for improving disease resistance.

Download Full-text