scholarly journals Econometric analysis of oil consumption and economic growth in Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 135-143
Author(s):  
Tara Prasad Bhusal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Oil Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Oil is one of the main inputs for many sectors like transportation, manufacturing, electricity generation and others. Oil is also very important for the economic growth of Nepal. This paper examines the short and long-run causality between oil consumption and Gross Domestic Product for Nepal using annual data covering the period of 1975-2009. Granger causality test is employed to analyse the relationship between economic growth and oil consumption variables with same order of integration (I (1)). In this study is found that there exists bi-directional Granger causality between oil consumption and economic growth in the short and long run.Key words: Oilconsumption; Economic Growth; Causality; Co-integrationEconomic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 11 & 12 No. 1-2 (2010) Combined IssuePage: 135-143Uploaded date: 10 April, 2012

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

ANALYSIS OF THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BANK CREDIT AVAILABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA.

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Goodman Chakanyuka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to Analyze of the Relationship between Business Cycles and Bank Credit Extension: Evidence from South Africa. The study sought establish the direction of causality between economic growth and bank credit growth in South AfricaMethodology: The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980: Q1 to 2013: Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector.Results: Results revealed that, that there is a stable long-run relationship between macro-economic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa.Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: It proposes practical policy prescriptions to address challenges currently facing South Africa. The other major contribution of this study is that it shall open new avenues for further research on finding causality of the relationship between various proxies of economic growth and financial development adopting the VAR framework

scholarly journals FDI and Economic Growth in EU13 Countries: Cointegration and Causality Tests

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-63
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
European Union ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in “new” European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals The Relation between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Case of Saudi Arabia as an Emerging Tourism Destination

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 29-47
Author(s):  
Lamia Jamel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test

This paper examines empirically the relation between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The authors try to justify how tourism contributes to the economic growth of Saudi Arabia. There are applied descriptive statistics, unit root test, VAR model and Granger Causality test as an econometric methodology to examine the connection between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia for the annual data in the period from 1990 to 2018. The main empirical results of the study find out that tourism affects positively the economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Also, there is found a positive nexus among tourism and economic growth. Furthermore, CO2 emissions and financial development impact positively the tourism sector, while trade openness predicts a negative effect on tourism. Additionally, CO2 emissions, financial development, and trade openness have a positive impact on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Finally, the Granger causality test provides evidence of bidirectional nexus between tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. This paper contributes to the current research by explaining the causal nexus among tourism and economic growth in Saudi Arabia during the period from 1990 to 2018, applying a vector autoregressive model and Granger Causality.

scholarly journals Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ibrahim EL-Sakka ◽  
Naief hamad Al-Murairi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Stationarity Tests ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

This paper aims at analysing the relationship between exports and economic growth in the Arab countries using annual data for the period 1970-1999. Section two of this study presents a theoretical background of the relationship between exports and economic growth. Literature review is found in Section 3. In Section 4, the methodological issues of studying this relationship are discussed. Results of stationarity tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) as well as Bivariate Johansen-Juseluis tests for cointegration are presented in Section 5. Stationarity tests suggest that time series are non-stationary in their levels and seem to be stationary in their first differences. Testing for long-run cointegration relationship using Johansen-Juseluis approach, it is found that in general there is no cointegration relationship between exports and GDP. For this reason, we abandoned the error correction model and tested for causality using different versions of Granger’s causality test. We found mixed results about the causal relationship between exports and GDP in Arab countries.

scholarly journals ANALISA HUBUNGAN ANTARA PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN EKSPOR INDONESIA (UJI KAUSALITAS GRANGER)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-305
Author(s):  
Debora Silvia Hutagalung ◽  
◽  
Junaidi Siahaan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Domestic Products

This study entitled "Analysis of The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product and Indonesian Exports (Granger causality test)”. This research was conducted because of the dualism of the theory between the two variables. In macroeconomic theory, the relationship between Gross Domestic Product is one of the similarities, because exports contribute to Gross Domestic Products on the demand side, while neoclassical trade theory emphasizes causality related to household production and assistance for exports.The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and exports. This study uses several analytical methods: Unit Root Test, CointegrationTest, Granger Causality Test using the E-views program7 and using Quarterly data.The results of the estimation of this study are the estimation of the relationship in GDP and exports, or in other words the Gross Domestic Product affects Indonesia's exports. This is concluded based on the estimation results that can be seen from the statistical F value that is greater than the f-table (8.958205> 3.841466) on the Null hypothesis. GDP is not an Export Granger with a 95% confidence level. This means, GDP affects exports When GDP can affect the level of exports in the intervals of 2000 to 2012.Keywords:Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Exports, Granger Causality Test

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