Monte Carlo simulation of cerebrospinal fluid shunt failure and definition of instability among shunt-treated patients with hydrocephalus

2007 ◽  
Vol 107 (6) ◽  
pp. 474-478
Author(s):  
Joseph H. Piatt ◽  
Margaret Cosgriff
1993 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-65
Author(s):  
Mark Wallace

The definition of reserves categories is frequently related directly back to the probabilistic distribution of reserves in the field. Most developments are planned around the P50 or “most likely” expectation for the field a level which incorporates the Proven plus Probable categories. The Proven category is usually backed out from the resulting reserves distribution by assuming an arbitrary P90 or P80 value, similarly upside or the Reserves including the Possible category are allocated a P20 or P10 value. This approach provides an “accepted” range to the reserves but is essentially reliant upon applying a range to a set of deterministric parameters. This approach assumes the basic principles of reservoir description are correct and can be applied at all confidence levels (P90-P10). In complex reservoirs this is less of a valid assumption, and running deterministic cases using pessimistic and optimistic data interpretations is the realistic way to determine the reserves range for the field.


Author(s):  
Ma Yupeng ◽  
Zhang Jianguo ◽  
Qiu Jiwei

Vibration reliability analysis of gear sets considering various kinds of nonlinear random factors is essential for the safety of gear driven systems. In this paper, a rational definition of gear sets vibration reliability was presented at first by taking all kinds of vibration responses including displacement, velocity and acceleration into account uniformly by treating them as a series system with statistically independent components. According to the given definition, a systematic analyzing scheme for the vibration reliability of gear sets was proposed. Vibration reliability estimated via the analyzing scheme would make it conservative but more safely in design of gear driven systems. Subsequently, both analytic and numerical methods for gear sets vibration response reliability estimation were carried out based on the proposed analyzing scheme. The analytic method is suitable for the situations that the vibration responses of gears sets under random circumstances are stationary stochastic responses. While, the numerical method named Multi-crossing Monte Carlo Simulation (MULCMCS) can well solve the reliability estimating problems even when the vibration responses of gear sets are nonstationary stochastic processes. Finally, for illustration, a numerical case of analyzing the vibration response reliability of a single degree-of-freedom (DOF) gear set was given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the MULCMCS method.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 100006
Author(s):  
Patrick Y. Yang ◽  
Cerintha J. Hui ◽  
Daniel J. Tien ◽  
Andrew W. Snowden ◽  
Gayle E. Derfus ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. E33-E36
Author(s):  
Joseph A Carnevale ◽  
Nigar Ahmedli ◽  
John F Morrison ◽  
Wael F Asaad ◽  
Petra Klinge ◽  
...  

Abstract BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE Cerebrospinal fluid shunt placement is used to treat the various causes of hydrocephalus by redirecting the cerebrospinal fluid to the body, most commonly from the ventricle to the peritoneum. Distal catheter displacement from the peritoneal cavity can occur as a complication, necessitating reoperation. CLINICAL PRESENTATION We report 2 such cases in obese patients involving retropulsion of the distal tubing. To address this complication, we implanted a T-connector to the distal catheter construct. CONCLUSION This study supports the use of a T-connector catheter construct to decrease and prevent the possibility of distal peritoneal catheter retropulsion in cases of elevated intra-abdominal pressure, both prophylactically and in revisions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 126 (5) ◽  
pp. 1720-1724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard D. Murray ◽  
Rachel Friedlander ◽  
Samuel Hanz ◽  
Harminder Singh ◽  
Vijay K. Anand ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVEThe anterior skull base is a common site for the spontaneous development of meningoceles, encephaloceles, and meningoencephaloceles that can lead to cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) fistula formation, particularly in association with idiopathic intracranial hypertension. In some circumstances the lesions are difficult to localize. Whether all sites in the anterior skull base are equally prone to fistula formation or whether they are distributed randomly throughout the anterior skull base is unknown, although the anterior cribriform plate has been proposed as the most frequent location. The purpose of this study was to identify sites of predilection in order to provide assistance for clinicians in finding occult leaks and increase the understanding of the etiology of this pathology.METHODSThe authors performed a retrospective review of a prospectively acquired surgical database of all endonasal endoscopic surgeries performed at Weill Cornell Medical College by the senior authors. Spontaneous CSF fistulas of the anterior skull base were identified. The anatomical sites of the defects were located on radiographic images and normalized to a theoretical 4 × 2 grid representing the anterior midline skull base. Data from the left and right skull base were combined to increase statistical power. This grid was then used to analyze the distribution of defects. Frequency analysis was performed by means of a chi-square test, with a subsequent Monte Carlo simulation to further strengthen the statistical support of the conclusions.RESULTSNineteen cases of spontaneous CSF fistulas were identified. Frequency analysis using chi-square indicated a nonrandom distribution of sites (p = 0.035). Monte Carlo simulation supported this conclusion (p = 0.034). Seventy-four percent of cases occurred in the cribriform plate (p = 0.086). Moreover, 37% of all defects occurred in the posterior third of the cribriform plate.CONCLUSIONSAnterior skull base spontaneous CSF leaks are distributed in a nonrandom fashion. The most likely site of origin of the spontaneous CSF leaks of the anterior midline skull base is the cribriform plate, particularly the posterior third of the plate, likely because of the lack of significant thick bony buttressing. Clinicians searching for occult spontaneous leaks of the anterior skull base should examine the cribriform plate, especially the posterior third with particularly close scrutiny.


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