Video conferencing software selection based on hybrid MCDM and cumulative prospect theory under a major epidemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Jie Xu ◽  
Jian Lv ◽  
Hong-Tai Yang ◽  
Yan-Lai Li
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Weighting Function ◽  
Video Conferencing ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Software Selection ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Selection Decision ◽  
Gains And Losses

The video conferencing software is regarded as a significant tool for social distancing and getting incorporations up and going. Due to the indeterminacy of epidemic evolution and the multiple criteria, this paper proposes a video conferencing software selection method based on hybrid multi-criteria decision making (HMCDM) under risk and cumulative prospect theory (CPT), in which the criteria values are expressed in various mathematical forms (e.g., real numbers, interval numbers, and linguistic terms) and can be changed with natural states of the epidemic. Initially, the detailed description of video conferencing software selection problem under an epidemic are given. Subsequently, a whole procedure for video conferencing software selection is conducted, the approaches for processing and normalizing the multi-format evaluation values are presented. Furthermore, the expectations provided by DMs under different natural states of the epidemic are considered as the corresponding reference points (RP). Based on this, the matrix of gains and losses is constructed. Then, the prospect values of all criteria and the perceived probabilities of natural states are calculated according to the value function and the weighting function in CPT respectively. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated by an empirical case study, and the comparison analysis and the sensitivity analysis for the loss aversion parameter are conducted to prove the effectiveness and robustness. The results show that considering the psychological characteristics of DMs in selection decision is beneficial to avoid the unacceptable and potential loss risks. This study could provide a useful guideline for managers who intend to select appropriate video conferencing software.

scholarly journals Research on Decision-Making Behavior of Discretionary Lane-Changing Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Xueqin Long ◽  
Liancai Zhang ◽  
Shanshan Liu ◽  
Jianjun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Actual Observation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Lane Keeping

In this paper, the decision-making model of discretionary lane-changing is established using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Through analyzing the vehicles’ dynamic running states, safety spacing calculating approaches for discretionary lane-changing and lane-keeping have been put forward firstly. Then, based on CPT, a lane-changing decision model with accelerating space as its utility is proposed by estimating the difference between actual spacings and the safety spacings for discretionary lane-changing as well as lane-keeping. In order to calculate the utility of discretionary lane-changing, dynamic reference points and a parameter representing driver’s risk preference are introduced into the model. With the real data collected from an urban expressway, the distribution of discretionary lane-changing duration is analyzed, and the model parameters are also calibrated. Furthermore, the applicability of the model is evaluated by comparing with the actual observation and random unity model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out, that is, assessing the influence degree of each variable on the decision result. The study reveals that the CPT-based model can describe discretionary lane-changing behavior more accurately, which consider drivers’ risk-aversion during decision-making.

scholarly journals Building Innovative Service Composition Based on Two-Way Selection in Cloud Manufacturing Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Jinhui Zhao ◽  
Muzi Li ◽  
Yu Zhou ◽  
Peichong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Service Composition ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Cloud Manufacturing ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Manufacturing Environment ◽  
Teaching Learning ◽  
Gains And Losses

In the cloud manufacturing environment, innovative service composition is an important way to improve the capability and efficiency of resource integration and realize the upgrading and transformational upgrade of the manufacturing industry. In order to build a stable innovative service composition, we propose a novel composite model, which uses two-way selection according to their cooperation to recommend the most suitable partners. Firstly, a rough number is applied to quantify the semantic evaluation. Using the expectation of cooperative condition as reference points, prospect theory is then applied to calculate the cooperative desires for both sides based on participants’ psychological attitudes toward gains and losses. Next, the cooperative desires are used to establish the two-way selection model of innovative service composition. The solution is determined by using an improved teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm. Compared with traditional combined methods in the cloud manufacturing environment, the proposed model fully considers the long-neglected needs and interests of service providers. Prospect theory takes psychological expectations and varying attitudes of decision makers towards gains and losses into account. Moreover, an interval rough number is used to better preserve the uncertain information during semantic quantification. Experimental results verify the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Multi-stage emergency decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiang Xu ◽  
Jingni Guo ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Weihua Liu ◽  
Hui Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Dynamic Adjustment ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
The Impact

Aiming at the problem where the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers’ emotions may lead to different decision-making results, this research proposes a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with the emotion updating mechanism of decision makers. The method of setting dynamic reference points under the influence of decision-makers' emotions is given in this study, and the scenario value of each stage of emergency is calculated by using cumulative prospect theory, so as to describe the emotion renewal mechanism of decision-makers. The scenario weights of each stage are calculated, and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the prospect value, input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives. Furthermore, by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage, the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given. Taking Sichuan Tibet emergency rescue in China as an case analysis, the scientific rationality of the theory proposed in this paper is verified.

scholarly journals Sequential Route Choice Modeling Based on Dynamic Reference Points and Its Empirical Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Xueqin Long ◽  
Chenxi Hou ◽  
Shanshan Liu ◽  
Yuejiao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Travel Time ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Route Choice ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Time Travel ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Travel Time Prediction ◽  
Route Choice Behavior ◽  
Types Of Information

Aiming at the influence of information, we investigate and analyze the sequential route choice behavior under dynamic reference points based on cumulative prospect theory in this paper. An experiment platform collecting the sequential route choices based on C/S structure is designed and four types of information are released to participants, respectively. Real-time travel time prediction methods are then proposed for travelers’ decision-making. Using nonlinear regression method, the parameters of the value function and weight function of cumulative prospect theory are estimated under different types of information, respectively. It is found that travelers’ behavior showed obvious characteristic of risk pursuit under the circumstance where real-time travel time information is released. Instead, when they have access to descriptive information, they tend to be more conservative.

scholarly journals On the Empirical Validity of Cumulative Prospect Theory: Experimental Evidence of Rank‐Independent Probability Weighting

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 1363-1409
Author(s):  
B. Douglas Bernheim ◽  
Charles Sprenger
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Weighting Function ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Probability Weighting ◽  
Nonparametric Method ◽  
Relative Probability ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Probability Weight ◽  
Independent Probability

Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), the leading behavioral account of decisionmaking under uncertainty, avoids the dominance violations implicit in Prospect Theory (PT) by assuming that the probability weight applied to a given outcome depends on its ranking. We devise a simple and direct nonparametric method for measuring the change in relative probability weights resulting from a change in payoff ranks. We find no evidence that these weights are even modestly sensitive to ranks. Conventional calibrations of CPT preferences imply that the percentage change in probability weights should be an order of magnitude larger than we observe. It follows either that probability weighting is not rank‐dependent, or that the weighting function is nearly linear. Nonparametric measurement of the change in relative probability weights resulting from changes in probabilities rules out the second possibility. Additional tests nevertheless indicate that the dominance patterns predicted by PT do not arise. We reconcile these findings by positing a form of complexity aversion that generalizes the well‐known certainty effect.

Route choice model based on cellular automata and cumulative prospect theory: Case analysis of transportation network in Sichuan-Tibet region

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Junxiang Xu ◽  
Jingni Guo ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Weihua Liu ◽  
Hui Ma
Keyword(s):  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Transportation Network ◽  
Route Choice ◽  
Research Abstract ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Transportation Organization ◽  
The Impact

In order to study the influence of travelers’ self-adaptive adjustment behavior on transportation network under the assumption of bounded rationality, using cellular automaton to discretize the selection model under the analytic paradigm in the existing research, abstract each cell into a traveler, and describe the traveler characteristics with finite rationality characteristics through the travel risk attitude and travel generalized cost budget. Cellular automata and cumulative prospect theory is used to establish the travel route choice model, giving the dynamic evolution process of different reference points for travelers and taking the actual regional transportation network of Sichuan Tibet region in China as the study object, analyzes the impact of bounded rational travel behavior on route choice. The model and algorithm proposed in our study can not only guide the transportation organization of Sichuan Tibet region, but also provide theoretical support for the implementation of regional transportation planning and traffic control scheme in the future.

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