scholarly journals Multi-stage emergency decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiang Xu ◽  
Jingni Guo ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Weihua Liu ◽  
Hui Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Dynamic Adjustment ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
The Impact

Aiming at the problem where the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers’ emotions may lead to different decision-making results, this research proposes a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with the emotion updating mechanism of decision makers. The method of setting dynamic reference points under the influence of decision-makers' emotions is given in this study, and the scenario value of each stage of emergency is calculated by using cumulative prospect theory, so as to describe the emotion renewal mechanism of decision-makers. The scenario weights of each stage are calculated, and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the prospect value, input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives. Furthermore, by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage, the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given. Taking Sichuan Tibet emergency rescue in China as an case analysis, the scientific rationality of the theory proposed in this paper is verified.

Probabilistic hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS emergency decision-making method based on the cumulative prospect theory

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Xiuyan Sha ◽  
Chuancun Yina ◽  
Zeshui Xu ◽  
Shen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
New Method ◽  
Attribute Weights ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

In order to fully consider the decision-maker’s limited rationality and attitude to risk, this paper constructs the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS emergency decision-making model based on the cumulative prospect theory under the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy environment. Aiming at the problem of missing probabilistic information in the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy element, a new complement scheme is proposed. In this scheme, the weighted average result of the original data information is used to complement, and the original data information is retained to a large extent. Then this paper proposes several probabilistic hesitant fuzzy distance measures based on Lance distance. The decision reference point is constructed by the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy Lance distance, which overcomes the influence of the extreme value on the decision-making result, and defines the value function based on the probability hesitation fuzzy Lance distance. In view of the fact that the attribute weights are completely unknown, the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy exponential entropy is constructed by using the actual data, and the attribute weights of different prospect states are obtained. Aiming at the problem that attribute weights of different prospect states have different effects on the cumulative prospect value, the expression of the cumulative prospect value is improved. The improved closeness coefficient of the TOPSIS method is used to order the emergency schemes. Finally, the new method is applied to the emergency decision-making case of a sudden outbreak of epidemic respiratory disease. The results show that the contrast of the new method is obvious, which is conducive to distinguish different schemes. The new method is more suitable for the complex and changeable emergency decision-making field.

Decision-making of investment in navigation safety improving schemes with application of cumulative prospect theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 232 (6) ◽  
pp. 710-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wang ◽  
Qing Liu ◽  
Tongle Yin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Safety Investment ◽  
Navigation Safety

Navigation safety improving investment aims at mitigating risk and improving safety of shipping system, while decision-makers’ attitudes toward the uncertainty of shipping safety possess a characteristic of “bounded rationality.” To study the tendency of shipping safety investment decision-making with different risk perception and appetite, a decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed in this article. First, we extract the decision attributes through analyzing the factors affecting shipping safety investment. Then, according to cumulative prospect theory, the value function and the probability weighting function for calculating cumulative prospect values of shipping investment attributes are given. Under the risk-based multi-attribute group decision-making framework, linear programming model and projection method are introduced to aggregate the weights of attributes and decision-makers, respectively. Furthermore, through a case study, the proposed methodology is utilized in Three Gorges Dam area, and the desirable safety investment scheme is determined from a set of candidate alternatives. The case study shows not only validity and feasibility of the decision-making approach but also the mechanism of shipping safety investment decision-making with consideration of the behavior characteristics of decision-makers such as reference dependence, risk appetite distortion, and loss aversion.

scholarly journals An Improved Genetic Algorithm for Emergency Decision Making under Resource Constraints Based on Prospect Theory

Algorithms ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leiwen Chen ◽  
Yingming Wang ◽  
Geng Guo
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Improved Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Value Measurement

The study of emergency decision making (EDM) is helpful to reduce the difficulty of decision making and improve the efficiency of decision makers (DMs). The purpose of this paper is to propose an innovative genetic algorithm for emergency decision making under resource constraints. Firstly, this paper analyzes the emergency situation under resource constraints, and then, according to the prospect theory (PT), we further propose an improved value measurement function and an emergency loss levels weighting algorithm. Secondly, we assign weights for all emergency locations using the best–worst method (BWM). Then, an improved genetic algorithm (GA) based on prospect theory (PT) is established to solve the problem of emergency resource allocation between multiple emergency locations under resource constraints. Finally, the analyses of example show that the algorithm can shorten the decision-making time and provide a better decision scheme, which has certain practical significance.

scholarly journals Research on Decision-Making Behavior of Discretionary Lane-Changing Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Xueqin Long ◽  
Liancai Zhang ◽  
Shanshan Liu ◽  
Jianjun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Actual Observation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Lane Keeping

In this paper, the decision-making model of discretionary lane-changing is established using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Through analyzing the vehicles’ dynamic running states, safety spacing calculating approaches for discretionary lane-changing and lane-keeping have been put forward firstly. Then, based on CPT, a lane-changing decision model with accelerating space as its utility is proposed by estimating the difference between actual spacings and the safety spacings for discretionary lane-changing as well as lane-keeping. In order to calculate the utility of discretionary lane-changing, dynamic reference points and a parameter representing driver’s risk preference are introduced into the model. With the real data collected from an urban expressway, the distribution of discretionary lane-changing duration is analyzed, and the model parameters are also calibrated. Furthermore, the applicability of the model is evaluated by comparing with the actual observation and random unity model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out, that is, assessing the influence degree of each variable on the decision result. The study reveals that the CPT-based model can describe discretionary lane-changing behavior more accurately, which consider drivers’ risk-aversion during decision-making.

scholarly journals A Novel Linguistic Z-Number QUALIFLEX Method and Its Application to Large Group Emergency Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue-Feng Ding ◽  
Li-Xia Zhu ◽  
Mei-Shun Lu ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Yi-Qi Feng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Large Group ◽  
Emergency Event ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Alternative Solutions

After an unconventional emergency event occurs, a reasonable and effective emergency decision should be made within a short time period. In the emergency decision making process, decision makers’ opinions are often uncertain and imprecise, and determining the optimal solution to respond to an emergency event is a complex group decision making problem. In this study, a novel large group emergency decision making method, called the linguistic Z-QUALIFLEX method, is developed by extending the QUALIFLEX method using linguistic Z-numbers. The evaluations of decision makers on the alternative solutions are first expressed as linguistic Z-numbers, and the group decision matrix is then constructed by aggregating the evaluations of all subgroups. The QUALIFLEX method is used to rank the alternative solutions for the unconventional emergency event. Besides, a real-life example of emergency decision making is presented, and a comparison with existing methods is performed to validate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed linguistic Z-QUALIFLEX can accurately express the evaluations of the decision makers and obtain a more reasonable ranking result of solutions for emergency decision making.

Prospect Theory and Political Decision-Making

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janice Gross Stein ◽  
Lior Sheffer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decision Making

Prospect theory has been adopted unevenly across different domains of political decision-making. Research drawing on prospect theory has contributed to important advances in the understanding of processes of elite decision-making in foreign policy and domestic politics. Political scientists have also contributed several important extensions of and qualifications to prospect theory that augment the original theoretical framework and are applicable in other disciplines. The next wave of research needs to be far more careful in specifying the scope conditions that have been the focus of research in behavioral economics. Scholars will also have to pay closer attention to the distribution of probability estimates across options; whether political decision makers are choosing among risky/certain bimodal distributions, high-probability distributions, high/low distributions, or low-probability distributions matters to the predicted impact of framing effects. Finally, studies will need to pay greater attention to the information political decision makers are given and to the impact of group dynamics in political settings. Identifying the scope conditions of prospect theory in the context of political and policymaking processes over time can make a significant contribution to the explanation of both domestic and foreign policy decisions, fill a gap between individual-level choice and institutionally based outcomes, and provide a stronger behavioral foundation for understanding the dynamics of multiactor policy choice.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document