scholarly journals Three essays on innovation, corporate control and household consumption-based asset pricing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Ruixiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Daily Consumption ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Industry Performance ◽  
Robust Tests ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Premium Risk ◽  
Free Rate

We propose a novel consumption measure that has a daily frequency and is based on real time shopping data. Our measure explains the joint equity-premium‚ risk-free rate puzzle with a risk aversion coefficient much lower than any other consumption measures. It explains the cross-sectional variation of expected returns on various portfolios and is the only consumption measure that passes Kleibergen and Zhan (Journal of Finance, 2020) robust tests. Our model decomposes consumption shocks into different frequencies of volatility and shows that ignoring short-term dynamics and intra-annual fluctuations explains the much higher risk aversion from low-frequency consumption measures. At zip-code level daily consumption, (a) consumption in blue areas suggests higher risk aversion than that in red areas; (b) only Democratic consumption beta explains a variation of cross-sectional returns, and is more sensitive to overall industry performance.

scholarly journals CONNECTING THEORY AND EMPIRICS FOR ANIMAL SPIRITS, RETURNS AND INTEREST RATES: A CLARIFICATION OF “RISK-FREE RATES AND ANIMAL SPIRITS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS”

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750002 ◽  
Author(s):  
JUKKA ILOMÄKI
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

I clarify and combine the results of Ilomäki (2016a) and Ilomäki (2016b) and find several interesting conclusions. First, the effect of the animal spirits component to the expected returns of investors depends on the risk-free rate. Second, there must be an upper limit for the risk-free rate, where the component that reduces the expected returns of informed investors in Ilomäki (2016a) disappears. Third, the empirical results of Ilomäki (2016b) indicates that the break-even level is as low as 3%.

scholarly journals Ambiguity Aversion and the Variance Premium

2019 ◽  
Vol 09 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjun Miao ◽  
Bin Wei ◽  
Hao Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Return Variance ◽  
Quantitative Performance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Free Rate

This paper offers an ambiguity-based interpretation of the variance premium — the difference between risk-neutral and objective expectations of market return variance — as a compounding effect of both belief distortion and variance differential regarding the uncertain economic regimes. Our calibrated model can match the variance premium, the equity premium, and the risk-free rate in the data. We find that about 97% of the mean–variance premium can be attributed to ambiguity aversion. A three-way separation among ambiguity aversion, risk aversion, and intertemporal substitution, permitted by the smooth ambiguity preferences, plays a key role in our model’s quantitative performance.

RISK-FREE RATES AND ANIMAL SPIRITS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650011 ◽  
Author(s):  
JUKKA ILOMÄKI
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Animal Spirit ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Global Stock ◽  
Free Rate

We show analytically that animal spirit excess profits for uninformed investors fall (increase) when the risk-free rate rises (falls). In the theoretical analysis, we examine the expected returns of risk-averse, short-lived investors. In addition, we find empirically that the local risk-free rates explain 14% of the changes in the animal spirit excess profits in the global stock markets for the last 29 years when the animal spirits is characterized as a product of the trend-chasing rule.

Rich Pickings? Risk, Return, and Skill in Household Wealth

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (9) ◽  
pp. 2703-2747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Bach ◽  
Laurent E. Calvet ◽  
Paolo Sodini
Keyword(s):  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Household Wealth ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

We investigate wealth returns on an administrative panel containing the disaggregated balance sheets of Swedish residents. The expected return on household net wealth is strongly persistent, determined primarily by systematic risk, and increasing in net worth, exceeding the risk-free rate by the size of the equity premium for households in the top 0.01 percent. Idiosyncratic risk is transitory but generates substantial long-term dispersion in returns in top brackets. Systematic and idiosyncratic risk both drive the cross-sectional distribution of the geometric average return over a generation. Furthermore, wealth returns explain most of the historical increase in top wealth shares. (JEL D31, G11, G51)

scholarly journals METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE DISCOUNTING RATE CHOICE IN FORENSIC ECONOMICS RESEARCH

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Paientko ◽  
M. Rudaia
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

The article summarizes the methodological approaches to the choice of discount rate. The purpose of the article is to substantiate methodological approaches to the selection of the discount rate concerning the examination related to the recognition of assets and liabilities requiring discounted valuations in the financial statements. The practical application of the discount rate methodology is explored. One of the most important models for estimating expected returns on securities portfolios, equity and the basis for setting risk premiums and discount rates is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In spite of the fact that the mandatory use of the model in Ukraine is absent at legislative level, the correctness of its application is confirmed by long-term business practice worldwide. It has been determined, that in order to protect the position of legal experts in the preparation of opinions related to local risk-free rate for evaluation of the discount rate determination it is suggested to use global risk-free rate with the appropriate adjustments. The algorithm for calculating the discount rate on the model of capital assets cost, which is possible to apply in the current realities of Ukraine, is substantiated.

scholarly journals Portfolio Selection and Optimization through Neural Networks and Markowitz Model: A Case of Pakistan Stock Exchange Listed Companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-196
Author(s):  
Javed Iqbal ◽  
Moeed Ahmad Sandhu ◽  
Shaheera Amin ◽  
Aliya Manzoor
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Information Ratio ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Free Rate

This paper used artificial neural networks (ANNs) time series predictor for approximating returns of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) listed 100 companies. These projected returns are then substituted into expected returns in the Markowitz’s Mean Variance (MV) portfolio Model. For comparison empirical data used is closing prices of PSX listed stocks, Karachi Inter Bank Offer Rates (KIBOR) as risk free rate and KSE-all share index as benchmark. The Portfolio returns are compared for two datasets by employing various constraints like budget, transaction costs, and turnover constraints. The value of portfolios is measured through Sharpe ratio and Information ratio. Both Sharpe and Information ratios support use of ANNs as return predictor and optimisation tool over simple MV model implemented for empirical data as well as predicted data. ANNs framework performed better in both Long and Short positions and its portfolio returns are significantly higher as compared with MV.

scholarly journals The CCAPM with Varying Preferences

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 199
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Euler Equation ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Long Run Risk ◽  
Free Rate

The Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) is by now a paradigm in financial economics. Applied to the risk-free rate, the CCAPM implies an Euler equation which depends on expected marginal utilities. The paper uses a widespread functional form to specify the utility. However the paper introduces varying preferences into the Euler equation. This enables us to find a relation between the current risk-free rate and the current level of real per capita consumption. Empirically this relation finds that risk aversion is lower for the short run and higher for the long run. The difference between the two is economically small but it is still statistically significant. The paper calculates the differential risk premium required to compensate for the higher long run risk aversion. This premium is also economically small. The paper concludes that the evidence supports that, in the long run, risk is either the same or higher than the short run risk.

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