scholarly journals The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-232
Author(s):  
Irina Tarasenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Transport Equipment ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Liani Suselo ◽  
Hilde Dameria Sihaloho ◽  
Tarsidin Tarsidin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the economic growth in Indonesia. The model applied considers both the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply interaction and the impact of the exchange rate volatility channeled through the investment and trade.The result shows the negative impact of the exchange rate volatility either in nominal or in real, on the economic growth. Both nominal and real exchange rate volatility dampens the investment. However, the nominal exchange rate volatility lowers import while the real one lowers export and at the other side boosts import.Keywords: Economic growth, exchange rate.JEL Classification: F31, O11, O40

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-40
Author(s):  
Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of CESEE countries' export of differentiated products to exchange rate changes

Industrija ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-26
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Đorđević-Zorić
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Differentiated Products ◽  
Average Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The research aims to examine the effects of exchange rate changes on the value of bilateral export of differentiated products in the selected CESEE countries, while controlling the impact of traditional gravity variables. Identifying the determinants that affect the export of high value-added products is of particular importance for this group of countries, while analyzing the effects of exchange rate changes is a contribution to the previous researches. In order to comprehensively understand the relationship between the observed variables, a quantile panel regeression was used to estimate the gravity equation. Examining the heterogeneity of the impact of exchange rate changes and other selected trade factors along the export distribution is another contribution of the paper, given that bilateral trade researches are usually based on assessing the average impact. The results indicate that the CESEE countries' export of differentiated products is significantly influenced by exchange rate changes. Exchange rate volatility has a negative impact, which grows at higher levels of export. The heterogeneity of the impact depending on export level was also confirmed for other determinants discussed in the paper.

scholarly journals Does Economic Integration Affect the Co-movement between Financial Markets? Evidence from Pakistani equity market with its global partners

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-158
Author(s):  
Ahmad Fraz ◽  
Arshad Hassan ◽  
Sumayya Chughtai
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates the impact of bilateral trade, economic fundamentals and financial crisis on the equity market integration (EMI) of Pakistan’s equity market with its major global trading partners (China, India, USA and UK) for the period 1998 to 2016. The findings of the study indicate that bilateral trade and economic conditions have a significant impact on EMI, the export dependence of two economies may increase the EMI and import dependence reduces the EMI of two economies. Moreover, inflation differential and volatility in the bilateral exchange rate have a negative impact on EMI. It implies that inflation rates in Pakistan’s equity market are higher as compare to other markets and volatility in bilateral exchange rate may reduce trade flows and its tendency to follow other market (Bracker, Docking , & Koch, 1999). Furthermore, the financial crisis in an economy may reduce the EMI with its trading partners and EMI between different markets is affected by their bilateral economic fundamentals. The results imply that financial integration between different markets is affected by their bilateral economic fundamentals. The study has strong implications for international investors who need to assess risks and benefits associated with international portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND EXPORTS OF MALAYSIAN MANUFACTURED GOODS TO CHINA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hock-Tsen Wong ◽  
Hock-Ann Lee
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
Bilateral Exports ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade is an important issue in international economics. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on disaggregated bilateral exports of Malaysian manufactured goods to China. Exchange rate volatility is estimated by the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) model, more specifically the TGARCH(1,1) model. The Johansen cointegration method and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator are used in the estimation. There is some evidence of exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real exports. Moreover, the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export can be negative or positive. The exports competitiveness of Malaysia should be improved. Exports shall be further diversified with more focused on intra-regional trade in Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Community (AEC).Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility; Exports; Manufactured Goods; Malaysia; China.

scholarly journals The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners

EconoQuantum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-81
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt ◽  
◽  
Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fixed And Random Effects ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Objective: To investigate the main impacts of the bilateral exchange rate (er) volatility on Colombian exports for its main trade partners for the period 2001-2019, with the use of control variables in addition to er volatility measure, such as countries’ gdp, distance, and dummy variables for contiguity and common language. Methodology: Pooled ols, Fixed and Random Effects Panel models, and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model. Results: The results showed that er volatility is harmful to the commercial relationship between Colombia and its trading partners. An increase of 1 % in the long term exchange rate volatility can reduce Colombian exports by 0.25-0.4%. Results also suggest that past information is particularly relevant in order to assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. As expected, exporter and importer incomes can increase trade, and distance can reduce trade. Limitations: Sectoral data used can be better explored. Originality: For the first time this methodology and data analysis is used to investigate the impact of er volatility on Colombian trade. Conclusions: Results add another empirical evidence to the literature of exchange rate and trade, where economic policies that aim to stabilize the exchange rate are likely to increase the volume of trade for Colombia and its trade partners.

scholarly journals An Empirical Sector-Specific Gravity Model for Hungarian International Trade

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 2145-2150
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Daniel Stavárek
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

This paper contributes to the economic literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility on Hungary’s foreign trade. Basic gravity model shows that trade volume between a pair of countries is an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and a decreasing function of the distance between them. Additional factors included in extended model are population, dummy for common border and proxy for exchange rate volatility. The measure of exchange rate volatility is estimated by GARCH model. This paper explores relationship between trade and exchange rate uncertainty using quarterly data over the period 1999:1 – 2014:3. In order to obtain the objective result, we use the panel data regression for 10 sectors of Hungarian international trade based on SITC classification and six major trading partners (Austria, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy and Poland). The significant parameters obtained from panel regression demonstrate that bilateral exchange rate volatility leads to a decrease in Hungary’s foreign trade.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from the Egyptian Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 140
Author(s):  
Osama M. Badr ◽  
Ahmed F. El-khadrawi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

The main aim of this paper is to assess empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility (ERV) on the export and import functions in reference to Egypt’s major trading partners over the period of 1980–2016. Estimates of a cointegration relationship are obtained using the ARDL model. The conditional variance of the GARCH (1,1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange rate fluctuation. The observed outcomes reveal a significant negative coefficient of volatility on export and a non-significant positive coefficient on import. Indeed, this finding supports the traditional view that higher volatility will decrease export. To avoid the negative consequences of ERV, policymakers should shift from the concept of specialization based on the comparative advantage to competitive advantage and focus on the diversification of Egyptian exports while avoiding risks associated with market concentration by exploring potential opportunities that would increase trade openness by expanding Egypt’s trade with other countries, especially with low and middle-income and emerging countries.

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sri Lankan Exports: An Empirical Investigation

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
E. M. Ekanayake ◽  
Dasha Chatrna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates effects of exchange rate volatility on Sri Lankan exports to its major trading partners. In this paper, we use a generalized ARCH-type model (GARCH) to generate a measure of exchange rate volatility which is then tested in a model of Sri Lankan exports. Testing sectoral trade data allows us to identify whether the effect of exchange rate volatility differs depending on the types of the goods traded. The results obtained in this paper suggest that the impact of exchange rate volatility differs between different categories of goods although it remains difficult to firmly establish the nature of the relationship.

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