scholarly journals The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners

EconoQuantum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-81
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt ◽  
◽  
Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fixed And Random Effects ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Objective: To investigate the main impacts of the bilateral exchange rate (er) volatility on Colombian exports for its main trade partners for the period 2001-2019, with the use of control variables in addition to er volatility measure, such as countries’ gdp, distance, and dummy variables for contiguity and common language. Methodology: Pooled ols, Fixed and Random Effects Panel models, and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model. Results: The results showed that er volatility is harmful to the commercial relationship between Colombia and its trading partners. An increase of 1 % in the long term exchange rate volatility can reduce Colombian exports by 0.25-0.4%. Results also suggest that past information is particularly relevant in order to assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. As expected, exporter and importer incomes can increase trade, and distance can reduce trade. Limitations: Sectoral data used can be better explored. Originality: For the first time this methodology and data analysis is used to investigate the impact of er volatility on Colombian trade. Conclusions: Results add another empirical evidence to the literature of exchange rate and trade, where economic policies that aim to stabilize the exchange rate are likely to increase the volume of trade for Colombia and its trade partners.

scholarly journals EFEK KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN PADA VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-45
Author(s):  
Wayrohi Meilvidiri ◽  
Syahruddin Syahruddin ◽  
Romualdus Turu Putra Maro Djanggo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Normality Test ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study uses the q to q dataset for the period 2011-2018, to examine the effect of trade openness on the exchange rate, on the other hand variable money supply, inflation and GDP growth and high-low exchange rates (dummy) will smooth the impact of shocks to the exchange rate . Using the OLS econometric estimator to see the effect of variables and the ARCH method to measure the uncertainty of exchange rate movements. Estimation results show that trade openness (open trade index); the money supply (money supply) and the high-low peak value of the exchange rate have a significant positive effect while the growth variable has a significant negative effect on exchange rate volatility. The LM test simultaneously found ARCH in residual data in lag 1 and lag 2. The normality test found abnormal residuals, while the residual heteroscedasticity test showed no ARCH problems in the last residuals.

scholarly journals Coping with the Exceptional Economic Problems in Turkey: A Field Survey on SMES

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ercan Özen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Important Place ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Developing countries need higher economic growth to reach the level of developed countries. When developing countries exceed the potential economic growth, problems, such as, high external debt and high current deficit emerge. Such situations increase the financial risk of the country; in addition, international political risks, fluctuations in capital inflows and some manipulative movements have subjected countries to extreme exchange rate fluctuations. Purposes of this research: (1) to uncover the impact of high exchange rate volatility on small business activities and (2) to determine whether the level of exposure of the exchange rate shock on business owners varies by age. The methodology of the study involved a survey administered to 390 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The findings of the study show that after a period of significant exchange rate fluctuations, business activities were negatively affected, sales decreased, and job cuts increased. On the other hand, the exchange rate effect was mostly felt by all business owners of different ages. According to the study, it can be concluded that small enterprises are vulnerable to rising exchange rate volatility. The effect on SMEs with more work experience is not different. In order to alleviate the effects of adverse exchange rate movements, enterprises should be more cautious in their activities. Two suggestions can be made at this point: (i) Governments should follow optimal growth policies and (ii) Small businesses that have an important place in the economy should be made aware of the exchange rate risk and crisis management.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows: Evidence from China, Pakistan and India

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Ahmed Shaikh ◽  
Ouyang Hongbing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Series Data ◽  
General Level ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade flows in case of China, Pakistan and India by using the time series data from 1980 to 2013. Most of the researchers have advocated that exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with general level of trade. In this study we have used the standard deviation of the moving average of the logarithm of the exchange rate as a proxy for volatility. And to investigate this relationship, we have applied the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach for co-integration which estimates the short and long run relationship among the variables for the said period. The results of this empirical work have suggested that exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with Chinese exports in short run while positively associated in long run. However, in the case of Pakistan and India both in the short run and long run, the exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with total volume of trade.

scholarly journals THE EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF INDONESIA'S EXPORTS TO JAPAN AND THE US

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-70
Author(s):  
Shinta Fitrianti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of the exchange rate volatility onIndonesia’s real exports to its major trading partners; Japan and US. The study uses monthly data from January 1998 to October 2015 in order to capture the structural break period of the Global Financial Crisis 2008. In addition, commodity price is included as an explanatory variable. The index of exchange rate volatility is generated using moving sample standard deviation of the growth of the real exchange rate. This paper estimates the long-run cointegration using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, while for the short-run dynamic this paper use error-correction-model (ECM). The findings suggest rupiah volatility against the Japanese yen reduces Indonesia’s export to Japan, both in the short and the long-run. Fluctuation of rupiah against the US dollar helps Indonesia’s export to the US in the short run, but the impact is not carried out to the long-run. On the other hand, the impact of commodity price shock is negligible, except for the long-run export to Japan.

scholarly journals The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Fatbardha Morina ◽  
Eglantina Hysa ◽  
Uğur Ergün ◽  
Mirela Panait ◽  
Marian Catalin Voica
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic factor that affects international trade and the real economy of each country. The development of international trade creates conditions where volatility comes with the exchange rate. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth in the Central and Eastern European countries. Additionally, the effect, through three channels of influence on economic growth which vary on the measurement of exchange rate volatility, is examined. The study uses annual data for fourteen CEE countries for the period 2002–2018 to examine the nature and extends the impact of such movements on growth. The empirical findings using the fixed effects estimation for panel data reveal that the volatility of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on real economic growth. The results appear robust with alternative measures of exchange rate volatility such as standard deviation and z-score. This paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to keep the exchange rate stable in order to foster economic growth.

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-232
Author(s):  
Irina Tarasenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Transport Equipment ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

scholarly journals Impact of the Exchange Rate and Price Volatility on FDI Inflows: Case of Morocco and Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Azzouzi Asmae ◽  
Bousselhami Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Turkish Government ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

This paper aims to examine empirically the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. The sample used is based on the Mediterranean countries of Morocco and Turkey for the period 1990-2017. Empirical findings for Morocco revealing that in both short and long-terms, real exchange rate volatility is negative and highly significant. Price volatility depicts a positive effect, which means that greater volatility of inflation may cause greater marginal profitability of capital and hence increase investment. On the other hand, for Turkey, FDI inflows are found more elastic to domestic price fluctuations. The exchange rate volatility, instead, turned out to have a positive but insignificant effect. In addition, we found that the potential market size rate, institution quality, and infrastructure appear to be the key factors in attracting foreign capital in both countries. As for trade openness, a positive effect on FDI flows is only perceptible in Morocco. In addition, the series of structural reforms carried out by Turkish government have generated real benefits for foreign investors by creating the adequate environment. This has allowed Turkey to overcome the problems it was facing in attracting foreign investment during the period analysed.

scholarly journals An Empirical Sector-Specific Gravity Model for Hungarian International Trade

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 2145-2150
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Daniel Stavárek
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

This paper contributes to the economic literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility on Hungary’s foreign trade. Basic gravity model shows that trade volume between a pair of countries is an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and a decreasing function of the distance between them. Additional factors included in extended model are population, dummy for common border and proxy for exchange rate volatility. The measure of exchange rate volatility is estimated by GARCH model. This paper explores relationship between trade and exchange rate uncertainty using quarterly data over the period 1999:1 – 2014:3. In order to obtain the objective result, we use the panel data regression for 10 sectors of Hungarian international trade based on SITC classification and six major trading partners (Austria, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy and Poland). The significant parameters obtained from panel regression demonstrate that bilateral exchange rate volatility leads to a decrease in Hungary’s foreign trade.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility: Does Microeconomic Policy Uncertainty Impact Exchange Rate Volatility?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 843-849
Author(s):  
Kelly Oniha
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on the exchange rate volatility in United States. Using newly developed measure of monetary policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic variables, I find that higher monetary policy uncertainty increases the exchange rate volatility.

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