scholarly journals EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND EXPORTS OF MALAYSIAN MANUFACTURED GOODS TO CHINA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hock-Tsen Wong ◽  
Hock-Ann Lee
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
Bilateral Exports ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade is an important issue in international economics. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on disaggregated bilateral exports of Malaysian manufactured goods to China. Exchange rate volatility is estimated by the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) model, more specifically the TGARCH(1,1) model. The Johansen cointegration method and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator are used in the estimation. There is some evidence of exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real exports. Moreover, the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export can be negative or positive. The exports competitiveness of Malaysia should be improved. Exports shall be further diversified with more focused on intra-regional trade in Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Community (AEC).Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility; Exports; Manufactured Goods; Malaysia; China.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Import Trade Flow Evidence From India-U.S. at Industry Level

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Mohini Gupta ◽  
Sakshi Varshney
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

scholarly journals British-European Trade Relations and Brexit: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Economic and Financial Uncertainty on Exports

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Sebastian Ptok
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Band Of Inaction ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Brexit, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), has led to significant exchange rate fluctuations and to uncertainty in financial markets and in UK–EU trade relations. In this article, we use a non-linear model to study how this uncertainty affects export companies. Exports tend to react in spurts when exchange rate fluctuations go beyond a band of inaction, referred to here as a “play area”. We apply an algorithm to study this hysteretic relationship with ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions. We examine the export relationship between Europe (Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, and The Netherlands) and the UK. To guarantee the robustness of the results, we estimate a variety of specifications for modeling economic uncertainty: (a) constant uncertainty, (b) exchange rate volatility, (c) volatility in European equity markets, (d) the Treasury Bill EuroDollar Difference (TED-spread), (e) the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI), and (f) a combination of exchange rate volatility and the EPUI. Since the results show little evidence of hysteretic effects on British exports, we focus on the European side. The specifications including exchange rate and equity market volatility show a significant effect of hysteresis.

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-232
Author(s):  
Irina Tarasenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Transport Equipment ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan’s Exports to Major Markets: A Sectoral Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1507-1519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaista Alam ◽  
Qazi Masood Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Favourable Effect ◽  
Sectoral Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Bilateral Exports ◽  
The Impact

The present study investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on Pakistan’s bilateral sectoral exports with its major trading partners, that is, USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Saudi Arabia. We have employed the multivariate co-integration test and found the presence of a long-run relationship amid the variables. The empirical evidence indicates that exchange rate volatility has consistent and favourable effect on sectoral exports of Pakistan in most of the cases. These sectoral exports’ results are considerably different from the results of aggregate and bilateral exports as the long-run elasticities for exchange rate volatility, regarding sectoral exports across countries, are all greater in magnitude as compared to aggregate and bilateral elasticities of exchange rate volatility, and some signs are also opposite (Alam & Ahmed, 2012). This concludes that the aggregate and bilateral aggregate exports data may weaken the effects of exchange rate volatility to statistically insignificant or less significant, and that the effect of exchange rate volatility may probably be more responsive to the nature of industry producing exportable goods.

scholarly journals Exchange rate volatility and import trade flow Evidence from India-U.S. at Industry level

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

scholarly journals Exchange rate volatility and its effect on intra-East Africa Community regional trade

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Thomas Mosbei ◽  
Silas Kiprono Samoei ◽  
Clement Cheruiyot Tison ◽  
Edwin Kipyego Kipchoge
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Regional Trade

East Africa Community exchange rate volatility spiraled up when the countries adopted the Structural Adjustment Policies in early 1980s. The question that remains unanswered is whether exchange rate volatility hinders or promotes trade. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of exchange rate volatility and its effect on Intra-East Africa community regional trade. Unit root tests results indicated that some of the variables were stationary at levels and on first difference, all variables were I(1). Differenced panel data was fitted into the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model to measure volatility. Hausman test showed that the fixed effect model was appropriate exchange rate, money supply, population and foreign direct investment significantly determines intra-East Africa Community regional trade. It was concluded that exchange rate volatility is observable in the Intra-East Africa region and further, exchange rate, money supply, population, and foreign direct investment significantly influenced intra-EAC regional trade. It is recommended that EAC member states should formulate policies that ensures exchange rate stability in the region to reduce unpredictability of exchange rate. Policies should be enacted to guarantee adequate money supply and encourage foreign direct investments.

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