Evaluating the effects of language on international trade in MENA countries: A gravity-model approach

Prior studies have investigated the role of economic and noneconomic variables on international trade. A major factor, which has been studied less, is the language used in transactions and negotiations. We explore the effects of language connectedness and the Arabic language on international trade in thirteen countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We used a panel of bilateral data and gravity model for the countries of the region over the 2000 to 2018 period. Our analytic technique was the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimation method. The empirical outcomes indicate that speaking Arabic leads to an increase in export, that is, Arab nations prefer to export to the countries whose people speak their language. In addition, the language connectedness index, which depends on the extent to which the country's languages are spoken outside the country, is positively associated with the levels of exports and imports. Results further show that the GDP, population of the destination country, and political co-stability have significant positive impacts on the bilateral exports. Additionally, GDP, the population of the source country, political co-stability, and a common border have had significant positive influences on bilateral imports. The major contribution of this research is that the Arabic language has a significant and positive impact on trade among MENA countries.

The Effectiveness of China's Foreign Trade Liberalization

This paper studies the ex-post trade effects of China's multilateral, regional and bilateral trade liberalization using augmented gravity and panel data estimation methods for the period 1995–2016. China's accession to the WTO was revealed to have had a significant impact on the volume of trade as well as on bilateral exports and imports. Regional trade agreements and the majority of bilateral trade agreements were found not to be effective in increasing China's foreign trade. Only the agreements with Chile, Costa Rica and Switzerland were effective in increasing China's trade volume. Moreover, the results for Chile were driven by increases in both exports and imports, while for Costa Rica and Switzerland only by increased imports from these countries.

Impact of Institutional Quality on Bilateral Exports: Exploring the role of Development

This study uses the gravity model to analyze the homogeneous and heterogeneous effect of institutional quality and development on bilateral exports. We use the panel data of 61countries for the period 2000 to 2016 and employ the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Liklihood (PPML) econometric technique with a High-Dimensional fixed effect (HDFE) for an estimation that allows the analysis in the presence of high dimensional fixed effects. The findings reveal that the direct effect of institutional quality and level of development on bilateral exports is positive and significant. Further, the institutional quality and the level of development of the exporter country have more impact on bilateral exports than that of the importer country. Our estimation results of homogeneity of institutions show that when both trading countries share the same level of institutional quality, it boosts the bilateral exports. The major finding of this study reveals that the interaction effect of institutional quality and level of development on bilateral exports is positive and significant. High value of interaction term of exporter economy and low value of importer country suggest that interaction effect of institutional quality and level of development on bilateral exports of exporter country have a greater impact than the interaction effect of institutional quality and level of development of importer country due to having the more production and exports facilities in exporter country. Based on the findings, some essential policies are also recommended, followed by some future research gaps.

The Role of Competition Reforms in Unlocking International Trade: Evidence from Africa’s Proposed Tripartite Free Trade Area

This study applies an econometric approach to estimate the impact of competition reform adoption and tightening on international trade, using Africa’s envisaged Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) as a case study. An index measuring the extent to which competition regimes have been tightened and enforced between 2001 and 2016 in the TFTA countries is constructed. A gravity model of international trade, based on generalized method of moments, is then estimated to establish how exports are influenced by this competition index measure after controlling for other traditional gravity model variables. The results show that increasing competition reforms by 1% is associated with an increase in bilateral exports into the TFTA by 0.16%. However, if competition reforms in the importing country increase by 1%, then an approximate decline in bilateral exports of 0.46% would result. This underlines the role of competition enforcement in enhancing national competitiveness.

The Impact of Systemic Stress in the Euro Area on Bilateral Exports of Goods

There is a growing interest among policymakers and researchers in estimating the impact of systemic stress on the economy. In this chapter, I present main findings of a panel study designed to estimate the impact of systemic stress in the euro area on bilateral exports of goods. Using the gravity model of international trade in goods, I found that systemic stress in the euro area, measured by the Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress for the euro area, the new Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress for the euro area and the EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index negatively affects bilateral exports of goods, which is consistent with my expectations.

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Stress in the United Kingdom on Bilateral Exports of Goods: Pre-Brexit Evidence

Brexit was a wake-up call for the UK and the EU. There is a growing body of evidence that the referendum results contributed to an increase in economic policy uncertainty and financial stress (including systemic stress) in the UK. In this chapter, I present the findings of a panel study designed to estimate the impact of economic policy uncertainty and financial stress in the UK on bilateral exports of goods. Using the panel data gravity model of international trade, I found that economic policy uncertainty in the UK negatively affects bilateral exports of goods, which is consistent with my expectations. The results for financial and systemic stress are not statistically significant.

Valor agregado en el valor bruto de las exportaciones: una mejor métrica para comprender los flujos comerciales entre Estados Unidos y México

NAFTA has been consistent with a trade surplus for Mexico over the U.S. according to traditional international trade statistics. However, using a bilateral input-output table that allows calculating each country’s value-added in exports, the trade balance between these two partners is modified. The flow of value-added in gross exports from Mexico to the U.S. reaches 164.4 billion dollars while the same from the U.S. to Mexico is 188.7 billion. The disaggregation of value-added highlights an important difference between domestic and foreign components incorporated in exports, because while for the U.S. the foreign value added in its exports reaches 2.5 billion, in the case of Mexico this concept is 50.2 billion. It is more than 20 times the U.S. figure. A directly derived conclusion from this is that during NAFTA an important part of the income from Mexican exports was used to remunerate productive factors used in the U.S. via imports. Another is that any modification of the NAFTA (related to a foreign content increase) will imply for Mexico a lower net income of foreign currency for each dollar exported. Consequently, foreign trade will have a smaller multiplier effect on Mexican domestic activity, given the bilateral exports boost will leak indirectly to the U.S.

Infrastructure development, institutions, and intra-regional trade: The case of East Africa

This study empirically examines the relationship between infrastructure stock and bilateral trade flows using a panel of 11 countries in East Africa for the period 2000 to 2018. Infrastructure augmented gravity model was estimated using total bilateral exports for the countries in East Africa. Infrastructure was disaggregated into transport and information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructures. Two institutional variables, control of corruption index and regulatory quality, were incorporated in the model. By employing Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator, the results confirm that both ICT and transport infrastructures and quality institutions positively impact on the volumes of total bilateral exports in East Africa. However, ICT infrastructure has a greater impact on trade flows compared to transport infrastructure. Therefore, more resources should be channelled towards increasing the stock of ICT infrastructure to propel trade and regional integration in East Africa.