The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sri Lankan Exports: An Empirical Investigation

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
E. M. Ekanayake ◽  
Dasha Chatrna
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates effects of exchange rate volatility on Sri Lankan exports to its major trading partners. In this paper, we use a generalized ARCH-type model (GARCH) to generate a measure of exchange rate volatility which is then tested in a model of Sri Lankan exports. Testing sectoral trade data allows us to identify whether the effect of exchange rate volatility differs depending on the types of the goods traded. The results obtained in this paper suggest that the impact of exchange rate volatility differs between different categories of goods although it remains difficult to firmly establish the nature of the relationship.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from the Egyptian Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 140
Author(s):  
Osama M. Badr ◽  
Ahmed F. El-khadrawi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

The main aim of this paper is to assess empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility (ERV) on the export and import functions in reference to Egypt’s major trading partners over the period of 1980–2016. Estimates of a cointegration relationship are obtained using the ARDL model. The conditional variance of the GARCH (1,1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange rate fluctuation. The observed outcomes reveal a significant negative coefficient of volatility on export and a non-significant positive coefficient on import. Indeed, this finding supports the traditional view that higher volatility will decrease export. To avoid the negative consequences of ERV, policymakers should shift from the concept of specialization based on the comparative advantage to competitive advantage and focus on the diversification of Egyptian exports while avoiding risks associated with market concentration by exploring potential opportunities that would increase trade openness by expanding Egypt’s trade with other countries, especially with low and middle-income and emerging countries.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of CESEE countries' export of differentiated products to exchange rate changes

Industrija ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-26
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Đorđević-Zorić
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Differentiated Products ◽  
Average Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The research aims to examine the effects of exchange rate changes on the value of bilateral export of differentiated products in the selected CESEE countries, while controlling the impact of traditional gravity variables. Identifying the determinants that affect the export of high value-added products is of particular importance for this group of countries, while analyzing the effects of exchange rate changes is a contribution to the previous researches. In order to comprehensively understand the relationship between the observed variables, a quantile panel regeression was used to estimate the gravity equation. Examining the heterogeneity of the impact of exchange rate changes and other selected trade factors along the export distribution is another contribution of the paper, given that bilateral trade researches are usually based on assessing the average impact. The results indicate that the CESEE countries' export of differentiated products is significantly influenced by exchange rate changes. Exchange rate volatility has a negative impact, which grows at higher levels of export. The heterogeneity of the impact depending on export level was also confirmed for other determinants discussed in the paper.

scholarly journals The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARC AUBOIN ◽  
MICHELE RUTA
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Global Production Networks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between exchange rates and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments on international trade flows. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative (even if not large) impact on trade. The extent of this effect depends on a number of factors, including the existence of hedging instruments, the structure of production (e.g. the prevalence of small firms), and the degree of economic integration across countries. The second issue involves exchange rate misalignments, which are predicted to have short-run effects in models with price rigidities. However, the exact impact depends on a number of features, such as the pricing strategy of firms engaging in international trade and the importance of global production networks. Trade effects of currency misalignments are predicted to disappear in the long-run, unless an economy is characterized by other relevant distortions. Empirical results broadly confirm these theoretical predictions.

scholarly journals MIXTURE DISTRIBUTION HYPOTHESIS AND THE IMPACT OF A TOBIN TAX ON EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: A REASSESSMENT

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1600-1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Damette
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Mixture Distribution ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Tobin Tax ◽  
Turbulent Times ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper applies smooth transition regressions to incorporate nonlinearity into the impact of trading volume on exchange rate volatility, the so-called mixture distribution hypothesis (MDH). Linking this analysis to the Tobin tax debate, we provide the first empirical corroboration that such a tax may be effective in limiting speculation and reducing exchange rate volatility, especially in turbulent times. Our study points to two main results. First, we show that nonlinearities should be taken into account to explain the MDH. When volatility, spreads, and volume are simultaneously high, the relationship between trading volume and volatility tends to grow stronger and thus the MDH holds in turbulent periods. Second, on the assumption of constant trading volume elasticity, a Tobin tax would have been stabilizing and effective in the 2008 crisis.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility and Import Trade Flow Evidence From India-U.S. at Industry Level

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Mohini Gupta ◽  
Sakshi Varshney
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The centre interest of the study is to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the India-U.S. trade flow of Import on 6 industries spanned from September 2002 to June 2019. We investigate the relationship at disaggregate level by industry-wise data with monthly frequency. We employ exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model to gauge volatility and thereafter ARDL bound testing approach to unveil the short and long-run association of real exchange rate volatility and import. The empirical analysis implies the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in 5 importing industries except manufactured (engineering) goods. While real exchange volatility appears to have statistically significant effect in short-run, but also estimated short-run lasts onto long-run effect in only three industries. The results confirm the information of import in time-series analysis. The finding of the study helps to undertake the view of invariability and considering the industry before policy making.

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade: The evidence from Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-232
Author(s):  
Irina Tarasenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Transport Equipment ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Manufactured Goods ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports of a range of goods between Russia and its 70 trading partners from 2004 until 2018. The goods in question fall into eight product categories, as follows: (i) agricultural raw materials­; (ii) chemicals; (iii) food; (iv) fuels; (v) manufactured goods; (vi) ores and metals­; (vii) textiles; and (viii) machinery and transport equipment. Exchange rate volatility­ is measured using the standard deviation of the first difference in the logarithmic daily nominal exchange rate. The paper concludes that exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on exports of agricultural raw materials, manufactured goods, and machinery and transport equipment. In contrast, it was found to have a positive and significant impact on trade in fuels and imports of chemicals and textiles.

scholarly journals The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners

EconoQuantum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-81
Author(s):  
Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt ◽  
◽  
Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Fixed And Random Effects ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade Partners

Objective: To investigate the main impacts of the bilateral exchange rate (er) volatility on Colombian exports for its main trade partners for the period 2001-2019, with the use of control variables in addition to er volatility measure, such as countries’ gdp, distance, and dummy variables for contiguity and common language. Methodology: Pooled ols, Fixed and Random Effects Panel models, and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model. Results: The results showed that er volatility is harmful to the commercial relationship between Colombia and its trading partners. An increase of 1 % in the long term exchange rate volatility can reduce Colombian exports by 0.25-0.4%. Results also suggest that past information is particularly relevant in order to assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. As expected, exporter and importer incomes can increase trade, and distance can reduce trade. Limitations: Sectoral data used can be better explored. Originality: For the first time this methodology and data analysis is used to investigate the impact of er volatility on Colombian trade. Conclusions: Results add another empirical evidence to the literature of exchange rate and trade, where economic policies that aim to stabilize the exchange rate are likely to increase the volume of trade for Colombia and its trade partners.

scholarly journals An Empirical Sector-Specific Gravity Model for Hungarian International Trade

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 2145-2150
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Daniel Stavárek
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

This paper contributes to the economic literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility on Hungary’s foreign trade. Basic gravity model shows that trade volume between a pair of countries is an increasing function of their sizes (GDP) and a decreasing function of the distance between them. Additional factors included in extended model are population, dummy for common border and proxy for exchange rate volatility. The measure of exchange rate volatility is estimated by GARCH model. This paper explores relationship between trade and exchange rate uncertainty using quarterly data over the period 1999:1 – 2014:3. In order to obtain the objective result, we use the panel data regression for 10 sectors of Hungarian international trade based on SITC classification and six major trading partners (Austria, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy and Poland). The significant parameters obtained from panel regression demonstrate that bilateral exchange rate volatility leads to a decrease in Hungary’s foreign trade.

scholarly journals The impact of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Khosa ◽  
Ilse Botha ◽  
Marinda Pretorius
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Orientation: High exchange rate volatility has implications for business and policy decisions and exchange rate movements are important in debates around trade and trade policies. Research purpose: The purpose of the research was to determine the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in emerging markets. Motivation for the study: A lack of clarity in literature regarding this relationship increases the risk of improper planning by export organisations as well as implementing suboptimal economic policies. Research design, approach and method: This research analysed the effect of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports using a sample of nine emerging countries from 1995 to 2010. Panel data analysis was conducted. Volatility was measured by Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity and conventional standard deviation in order to determine if the instrument of volatility used influenced the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. The Pedroni residual cointegration method was used to test for panel cointegration in order to determine if there was a long-run relationship. Main findings: The results showed that exchange rate volatility had a significant negative effect on the performance of exports, regardless of the measure of volatility used. It was also evident that a long-run relationship did exist. Practical/managerial implications: The study concluded that the policy mix that will reduce exchange rate volatility (such as managed exchange rate regimes) and relatively competitive exchange rates were essential for emerging markets in order to sustain their exports performance. Contribution/value-add: This research provided policy makers of emerging market economies with new evidence pertaining to the relationship between exchange rate volatility and the performance of exports. This research contributed to the existing knowledge on the topic and provides a base for future research on related topics.

scholarly journals Kurs dan Nilai Perdagangan Saham di BEI Sebelum dan pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Penta Widyartati ◽  
Ira Setiawati ◽  
Ariyani Indriastuti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Securities Trading ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

ABSTRACT   Corona Virus (Covid-19) not only harms humans in terms of health, but also has a big impact on the world economy. This study aims to analyze the impact caused by the covid-19 outbreak on the value of securities trading on the IDX and the rupiah exchange rate against the USD. The study was conducted through two stages, the first was to test the effect of the independent and dependent variables. The dependent variable in this study is the trade value, namely the daily trading value data on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from December 2019 to May 2020. As for the exchange rate variable as an independent variable, the data is taken on the BI page. The data is divided into two, namely data before the pandemic, represented by trade data from December 2019 to February 2020, and data during the pandemic period represented by trade data from March 2020 to May 2020. After testing the relationship between dependent and independent variables, research followed by a comparison, which compares the effect of the exchange rate on the value of trade on the IDX before the pandemic and during the pandemic. The results showed that there was a significant relationship between the exchange rate and the value of trade during the observation period before the pandemic, but in the event of a pandemic, this significant relationship no longer exists.Keywords                      : comparison; exchange rate; pandemic; trade value;Correspondence to        : [email protected] ABSTRAKVirus Corona (Covid-19) tidak hanya merugikan manusia dari segi kesehatan, tetapi juga berdampak besar bagi perekonomian dunia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak wabah Covid-19 terhadap nilai perdagangan efek di BEI dan kurs rupiah terhadap USD. Penelitian dilakukan melalui dua tahap, yang pertama adalah menguji pengaruh variabel independen dan dependen. Variabel dependen dalam penelitian ini adalah nilai perdagangan yaitu data nilai perdagangan harian di Bursa Efek Indonesia dari Desember 2019 hingga Mei 2020. Sedangkan untuk variabel kurs sebagai variabel independen data diambil dari laman BI. Data tersebut terbagi menjadi dua, yaitu data sebelum pandemi yang diwakili oleh data perdagangan bulan Desember 2019 hingga Februari 2020, dan data selama periode pandemi diwakili oleh data perdagangan dari bulan Maret 2020 hingga Mei 2020. Setelah dilakukan pengujian hubungan antara variabel dependen dan independen, penelitian dilanjutkan dengan perbandingan, yaitu membandingkan pengaruh kurs terhadap nilai perdagangan di BEI sebelum pandemi dan saat pandemi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan yang signifikan antara kurs dan nilai perdagangan selama periode observasi sebelum pandemi, namun pada saat terjadi pandemi, hubungan yang signifikan tersebut tidak ada lagi.Kata Kunci : pandemi; perbandingan; kurs; nilai perdagangan.

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