scholarly journals MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AFFECTING THE FISH TRADE BALANCE IN MALAYSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (Number 2) ◽  
pp. 52-62
Author(s):  
Bee Hui Soh ◽  
Ghee-Thean Lim
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Fish Trade

The world demand for fish has been increasing. Malaysia has a high fish trade with other countries. However, Malaysia, which has been one of the main fish producers given its long coastlines, still experiences a fish trade deficit. The present study aims to explore the effect of macroeconomic factors on the Malaysian fish trade balance by implementing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on the time series data from 1976 to 2016. The findings reveal that foreign income is positively correlated with the trade balance in both short-run and long-run. Nevertheless, trade openness, depreciation of exchange rate, and money supply show a negative effect on the trade balance for the long-run mainly. The incidents are mainly due to fish import dependence and a lack of capacity of exporting fish. To strengthen the trade balance, reducing fisheries products export duties and restricting imported fisheries products are highly recommended.

Factors Affecting International Reserves with Special Reference to India

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kashif ◽  
P. Sridharan ◽  
S. Thiyagarajan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

World international reserves holdings have accelerated sharply in recent times. Countries particularly developing ones are competitive enough to hoard these reserves and top 10 major holders are mostly from Asia. Interestingly India comes only ninth among them. Developing countries, particularly India, are in line to hoard foreign reserves and there are certain factors that affect international reserves holdings. This study analysed the impact of few macroeconomic factors on these reserves. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were employed to check the stationarity of the variables on the time series data that were of annual frequency. It was found that all variables were co-integrated signalling long-run relationship. Error correction mechanism (ECM) was implemented to get short-run dynamics for which a negative relation was established for trade openness (TRDOP) which contradicts previous studies. The negative relationship of TRDOP with international reserves in India could be due to the outcome of sustained trade deficits of Indian balance of payments. The economic growth variable exhibits a positive relationship which is consistent with previous studies. All variables were found significant at a 5 per cent level. The ECM suggested the same results as its long-run counterpart.

scholarly journals Different Approaches to Merchandise Trade Balance in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (Number 2) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Yousuf Aboya ◽  
Arsalan Hussain ◽  
Rohail Hassan ◽  
Hassan Mujtaba Nawaz Saleem ◽  
Aamir Hussain Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Merchandise Trade ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The current study empirically examines the three major approaches to trade balance for Pakistan by utilizing the yearly data from 1972 to 2016. Monetary, elasticity, and absorption approaches were tested by developing a model that incorporates all three approaches. The significant contribution of the study is that it uses only the merchandise trade deficit account, which includes trade of only physical goods. The study used time-series data; therefore, variables have been tested for the stationarity, and it is found that there is a combination of I (0) and I (1) variables, so ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration has been employed to find the short run and long run associations among the variables. The bound test results discovered that there is a presence of stable long-term association among the merchandise trade deficit account, real broad money supply, real effective exchange rate, and real domestic absorption. The results further revealed that merchandise trade discrepancy is determined purely by the real effective exchange rate, which specifies that the exchange rate's devaluation increases the deficit in the long run whereas in the short-run increase in domestic absorption decreases the merchandise trade deficit.

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

Modelling the Nexus Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Case of Afghanistan and Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath ◽  
Ubaid Mushtaq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
And Control

This paper tries to explore the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth by using the data from the two highest foreign aid recipient countries. Using the annual time series data from 1965 to 2017 this study uses several econometric models such as Johansen and Juselius cointegration, Granger causality and vector auto regression to establish the long and short-run relationships among foreign aid inflows and economic growth while also considering financial development and trade openness from both the countries. The empirical results suggest that no long-run relationship exists among foreign aid inflows and economic growth for both the countries. However, unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth is indicative in both countries. Therefore, the findings in this paper support the adequate need for foreign aid for effective economic growth amid an upright policy environment, related issues of conditionality and political stability. Our results are robust to independent, and control variables and estimation techniques are also on par with robustness.

scholarly journals Determinants of Private Investment in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-92
Author(s):  
Muhammad Suleman ◽  
Abdur Rehman ◽  
Haroon Javaid
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run

Private investment has a significant relation with the economic growth of the country. It plays an important role in reduction of unemployment and poverty by promoting efficiency and competition among the firms. This study is an attempt to investigate the determinants of private investment in Pakistan. For this purpose, time-series data is utilized for the period 1974-2013. The ARDL (Auto Regressive-Distributed Lag) modeling technique of co-integration was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run determinants of private investment in Pakistan. Empirical findings of this study indicated that in the short-run private investment in Pakistan is determined by the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, and domestic savings. While in the long run it is determined by the official exchange rate, the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, domestic savings, trade openness, and interest rate. The results also revealed that in the case of Pakistan different political regimes (democratic, non-democratic) have no significance in the determination of private investment. Stability tests of CUSUM and (CUSUMSQ) (Cumulative Sum Control Chart) were performed in this study. These tests indicated a stable, long run as well as short-run structural stability of the model.

scholarly journals Trade Openness And Inflation: Empirical Explanation Of The Nexus In Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
David Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

Purpose of the study: The study aims is to examine the effect of trade openness on inflation rate in Nigeria. Methodology: Time series data were collected from secondary sources.  EViews10 (statistical software for data analysis) ware employed to analyze the data collected. Findings: The results revealed a cointegrating and one-way Granger causality between inflation rate, and trade openness. In addition, both the short-run and the long-run results demonstrate a significant and negative relationship between inflation rate and trade openness in Nigeria. Application: The study is paramount to the government and policymakers in dealing and taking a decision regarding consumer price index and trade openness in Nigeria. We conclude that the government should work towards full diversification and diversion of the economy from oil export, control, and management of the degree of trade liberalization and the extent to which goods enter the country, and the control of money supplied. Novelty/Originality: The study accorded to debate on the inflation rate, and trade openness in Nigeria looking, at both short-run and long-run effects, before few accessible studies focused on impact, and trade openness was not measured as the value of net export divided by gross domestic product. Finally, the paper contributed to the scanty of the literature.

Determinants of environmental degradation in Saudi Arabia: exploring the unexplored

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
Arshad Hayat ◽  
Umar Burki
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose Environmental degradation is recognized as a serious problem globally, and hence, Saudi Arabia is no exception. This paper aims to focus on the economy of Saudi Arabia to identify the determinants of environmental degradation. Design/methodology/approach Time series data spanning from 1971 to 2014 is used and analyzed using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach. Findings The obtained results reflected that natural resources, per person income and urbanization, have impacted environmental degradation both positively and significantly in the long run. Similarly, an insignificant negative relationship is established between trade openness and environmental degradation. Moreover, energy consumption has positively but insignificantly affected environmental degradation. In the short run, only per capita income has positively influenced environmental degradation while the rest of the variables have lost either significance levels or their direction of relationship has reversed. Originality/value As this is a pioneering study on the economy of Saudi Arabia, therefore, the authors assume that policymakers will find the findings of the current study very useful while formulating and implementing policies to control environmental degradation.

scholarly journals Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Turkish Trade Balance

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huseyin Karamelikli
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run

<p>This study empirically analyses bilateral trade of Turkey with her main trade partners using monthly time series data over the period of 2000 to 2015. J-curve theory and short-run dynamics of bilateral trade is tested by linear ARDL and Non-linear ARDL approaches. The empirical results indicate that there is no J-curve effect during short-run for United States and for France; it symmetrically exists to Germany and asymmetrically to United Kingdom. Also long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance has mixed results. Asymmetric long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for United States exists where it is symmetrically most appropriate for Germany. In the other hand this study failed to verify any long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for France and for United Kingdom.</p>

scholarly journals Macroeconomic determinants of total factor productivity and its trend in Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 219-228
Author(s):  
Adisu Abebaw Degu ◽  
Dagim Tadesse Bekele
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Long Run

Total factor productivity (TFP) as a source of economic growth, has been recognized in economic theory for a long period of time. In this research we tried to examine the effect of some macroeconomic factors, which include trade openness, inflation, government expenditure, credit extended and foreign direct investment, and natural disaster drought on total factor productivity and its trend in Ethiopia by using Time series data spanning from 1991 to 2018.  The TFP was computed by using the growth accounting method from Cobb–Douglas production function.  ARDL was used for estimation of the short and long run econometric model.  Accordingly, the trend analysis shows the growth in TFP has been fluctuating over the study period. The result from ARDL indicated that; in long run foreign direct investment, government expenditure and drought negatively and significantly affect TFP. Credit extended is found to affect TFP positively and significantly, while inflation and trade openness are insignificant. Therefore, policies such as; subsidizing domestic firms, effective government spending and making the agriculture sector drought resistant need to be stimulated.

scholarly journals FOREIGN INVESTMENT INFLOWS AND THE STRUGGLE FOR A RENEWED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 88-103
Author(s):  
Aderopo Raphael Adediyan ◽  
Emmanuel Ekomoezor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series

This study attempts to find answer to the question of whether Nigeria should intensify effort to draw home more foreign investment; would more of foreign investment inflows accelerate Nigeria economic performance? Methodologically, annual time series data from 1986 to 2018 was analyzed using ARDL approach. The key findings are that, although FDI has long-run positive impact on economic growth, FPI has no operational effect on the growth; this is true of FPI both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, labour force and trade openness were found to have long-run and short-run positive impact on growth. Hence, government must tactically open up economy to trans-border trade, increase labour supply and intensify effort to attract more FDI.

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