scholarly journals The case for including additional long‐term oriented environmental data in coffee and cocoa futures forecasting models: an exploration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaclyn Daitchman
Keyword(s):  
Public Information ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Building Models ◽  
Future Viability ◽  
Insight Into

Price discovery is a key function of the futures markets yet limited public information exists about the price‐building models used by market participants. To fill a gap in the literature, interviews were conducted with the largest coffee and cocoa traders, investors, and organizations to provide insight into the models they use to forecast supply and futures prices, with an emphasis on the environmental factors considered to have a significant impact on yield. Despite concerns in the academic literature about soil degradation and climate change affecting the future viability of these crops, market participants primarily based their forecasts on short‐term weather patterns that deviated from the norm, as per historical data. Participants’ near‐unanimous acknowledgement that low coffee and cocoa prices pose a threat to the sustainability of the industry suggests that there is room to price in long‐term factors into short‐term futures models.

scholarly journals The case for including additional long‐term oriented environmental data in coffee and cocoa futures forecasting models: an exploration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaclyn Daitchman
Keyword(s):  
Public Information ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Building Models ◽  
Future Viability ◽  
Insight Into

Price discovery is a key function of the futures markets yet limited public information exists about the price‐building models used by market participants. To fill a gap in the literature, interviews were conducted with the largest coffee and cocoa traders, investors, and organizations to provide insight into the models they use to forecast supply and futures prices, with an emphasis on the environmental factors considered to have a significant impact on yield. Despite concerns in the academic literature about soil degradation and climate change affecting the future viability of these crops, market participants primarily based their forecasts on short‐term weather patterns that deviated from the norm, as per historical data. Participants’ near‐unanimous acknowledgement that low coffee and cocoa prices pose a threat to the sustainability of the industry suggests that there is room to price in long‐term factors into short‐term futures models.

Turkish Muslims in a German city: Entrepreneurial and residential self-determination

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Sarah Hackett
Keyword(s):  
Residential Patterns ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
German City ◽  
Post War ◽  
Oral History Interviews ◽  
The City ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Term Objective

Drawing upon a collection of oral history interviews, this paper offers an insight into entrepreneurial and residential patterns and behaviour amongst Turkish Muslims in the German city of Bremen. The academic literature has traditionally argued that Turkish migrants in Germany have been pushed into self-employment, low-quality housing and segregated neighbourhoods as a result of discrimination, and poor employment and housing opportunities. Yet the interviews reveal the extent to which Bremen’s Turkish Muslims’ performances and experiences have overwhelmingly been the consequences of personal choices and ambitions. For many of the city’s Turkish Muslim entrepreneurs, self-employment had been a long-term objective, and they have succeeded in establishing and running their businesses in the manner they choose with regards to location and clientele, for example. Similarly, interviewees stressed the way in which they were able to shape their housing experiences by opting which districts of the city to live in and by purchasing property. On the whole, they perceive their entrepreneurial and residential practices as both consequences and mediums of success, integration and a loyalty to the city of Bremen. The findings are contextualised within the wider debate regarding the long-term legacy of Germany’s post-war guest-worker system and its position as a “country of immigration”.

scholarly journals Clustering electricity market participants via FRM models

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ayla Gülcü ◽  
Sedrettin Çalişkan
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Distance Metrics ◽  
Agglomerative Clustering ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Clustering Techniques ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Cosine Distance ◽  
Collateral Mechanism

Collateral mechanism in the Electricity Market ensures the payments are executed on a timely manner; thus maintains the continuous cash flow. In order to value collaterals, Takasbank, the authorized central settlement bank, creates segments of the market participants by considering their short-term and long-term debt/credit information arising from all market activities. In this study, the data regarding participants’ daily and monthly debt payment and penalty behaviors is analyzed with the aim of discovering high-risk participants that fail to clear their debts on-time frequently. Different clustering techniques along with different distance metrics are considered to obtain the best clustering. Moreover, data preprocessing techniques along with Recency, Frequency, Monetary Value (RFM) scoring have been used to determine the best representation of the data. The results show that Agglomerative Clustering with cosine distance achieves the best separated clustering when the non-normalized dataset is used; this is also acknowledged by a domain expert.

KAMEDO Report No. 82 Explosion at the Fireworks Warehouse in the Netherlands in 2000

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viveka Björnhagen ◽  
Torbjörn Messner ◽  
Helge Brändström
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Communication Networks ◽  
Psychosocial Support ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Disaster Plan ◽  
Counselling Center

AbstractA fire and subsequent explosions occurred in a fireworks warehouse on 13 May 2000. A total of 947 persons were injured and 21 persons died, including four firefighters and one reporter. Communication networks became overloaded and impaired notification chains. The hospital disaster plan was followed, but was proved inadequate. Public information was a high priority. A counselling center was established early and was planned to continue operation for five years. The command function did not perform to expectations. Hospital triage was impaired as many responsible left the triage area. Short-term psychosocial support evolved to long-term programs. Liability issues were examined.

Athletes Play Through Pain—What Does That Mean for Rehabilitation Specialists?

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 640-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Barrette ◽  
Katherine Harman
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Semistructured Interviews ◽  
Sport Organization ◽  
The University ◽  
E Mail ◽  
Competitive Nature ◽  
And Training ◽  
Insight Into

Context: Pain in sport has been normalized to the point where athletes are expected to ignore pain and remain in the game despite the possible detrimental consequences associated with playing through pain. While rehabilitation specialists may not have an influence on an athlete’s competitive nature or the culture of risk they operate in, understanding the consequences of those factors on an athlete’s physical well-being is definitely in their area of responsibility. Objective: To explore the factors associated with the experiences of subelite athletes who play through pain in gymnastics, rowing, and speed skating. Design: The authors conducted semistructured interviews with subelite athletes, coaches, and rehabilitation specialists. They recruited coach participants through their provincial sport organization. Athletes of the recruited coaches who were recovering from a musculoskeletal injury and training for a major competition were then recruited. They also recruited rehabilitation specialists who were known to treat subelite athletes independently by e-mail. Setting: An observation session was conducted at the athlete’s training facility. Interviews were then conducted either in a room at the university or at a preferred sound-attenuated location suggested by the participant. Participants: The authors studied 5 coaches, 4 subelite athletes, and 3 rehabilitation specialists. Interventions: The authors photographed athletes during a practice shortly before an important competition, and we interviewed all the participants after that competition. Our photographs were used during the interview to stimulate discussion. Results: The participant interviews revealed 3 main themes related to playing through pain. They are: Listening to your body, Decision making, and Who decides. Conclusion: When subelite athletes, striving to be the best in their sport continue to train with the pain of an injury, performance is affected in the short-term and long-term consequences are also possible. Our study provides some insight into the contrasting forces that athletes balance as they decide to continue or to stop.

scholarly journals Az etopozid szervezeten belüli eloszlásában és metabolizmusában szerepet játszó epigenetikai hatások

2018 ◽  
Vol 159 (32) ◽  
pp. 1295-1302
Author(s):  
Erika Rozália Kovács ◽  
Sára Tóth ◽  
Dániel János Erdélyi
Keyword(s):  
Topoisomerase Ii ◽  
Therapeutic Index ◽  
Antitumor Agent ◽  
Hematologic Malignancies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Drug Dosing ◽  
And Personalized Medicine ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Pharmacogenomic Studies

Abstract: Etoposide is a topoisomerase II inhibitor antitumor agent which is widely used in the treatment of several hematologic malignancies and solid tumors. The therapeutic index of etoposide is quite high, thus its application causes several short-term and long-term side effects which can decrease the chance to cure patients. Drug dosing is based on body surface area calculation; recommendations for individual dosing do not exist yet. The biotransformation and transportation of etoposide are carried out by enzymes and transporters as reported in pharmacogenomic studies published in this area. Nowadays pharmacoepigenetics research has come to the fore. The authors wish to give an insight into the research of the epigenetical changes of the etoposide pathways, especially focusing on published findings on enzymes and transporters with pharmacokinetic relevance. In the future, epigenetical changes of the etoposide pathway might have a great role in diagnostics, prognostics and personalized medicine. Orv Hetil. 2018; 159(32): 1295–1302.

Intra-arterial chemotherapy for retinoblastoma: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1266-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishnan Ravindran ◽  
Lauren A Dalvin ◽  
Jose S Pulido ◽  
Waleed Brinjikji
Keyword(s):  
Metastatic Disease ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
First Line ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Systemic Complications ◽  
Substantial Heterogeneity ◽  
Insight Into

Background and purposeIntra-arterial chemotherapy for retinoblastoma has been adopted as a first-line treatment option by numerous tertiary centers. The effect of intra-arterial chemotherapy on future rates of metastatic disease as well as on globe salvage in advanced eyes remains relatively unknown.MethodsA search of PubMED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science electronic databases was conducted from inception until January 2019 for studies with a minimum of 10 patients reporting outcomes and complications following intra-arterial chemotherapy for retinoblastoma.ResultsA total of 20 studies met the inclusion criteria for analysis, comprising 873 patients and 1467 eyes. Only one study was comparative; there was substantial heterogeneity in reported outcomes and several overlapping patient cohorts that were published. Across all studies, 174 of 1467 eyes were enucleated (11.8%). Metastatic disease occurred in 8 of 513 patients (1.6%). Globe salvage was achieved in 318 of 906 (35.6%) cases of advanced retinoblastoma. The most common ocular complication was retinal detachment, occurring in 23% of eyes, and the most common systemic complications were transient fever and nausea/vomiting.ConclusionsThere is a paucity of higher-level evidence with adequate follow-up surrounding the long-term safety of intra-arterial chemotherapy and effect on metastasis in retinoblastoma. Studies to date have been limited by short-term follow-up. Longitudinal prospective studies could provide greater insight into the ability of intra-arterial chemotherapy to reduce the risk of retinoblastoma metastasis.

scholarly journals The development of climate security discourse in Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-281
Author(s):  
Yasuko Kameyama ◽  
Keishi Ono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Security Discourse ◽  
Level Of Understanding ◽  
Change Problem ◽  
Indirect Economic Losses

AbstractAs the level of understanding about climate change has increased, the term “climate security” has been increasingly used in the rapidly growing literature on this subject. Although Japan has officially acknowledged the importance of tackling climate change, discussion of climate security has been almost nonexistent among Japanese governmental officials, politicians, and academics. Our aim was to trace discourses related to climate security in Japan to determine why so little exists in Japan and whether or not such discourse could suggest new areas for consideration to more comprehensively respond to the climate change problem. Because of different interpretations and uses of the term “climate security” in the existing literature, we first categorized existing approaches to climate security into four types and used this categorization to examine Japan’s discourse from these perspectives. Two of the approaches, namely “long-term irreversible planetary changes” and “short-term abrupt risks to individuals”, had been considered in Japan previously but without specific reference to the term climate security. The other two, “cause of conflict and violence” and “impacts to military and defense organizations”, however, had not been used and need to be included in discussions of climate change in Japan. Some of the topics not discussed in Japan include indirect economic losses of Japanese industries via supply chains, loss of Japan’s exclusive economic zone due to sea-level rise, and the potential inflow of refugees resulting from extreme weather patterns outside of Japan.

scholarly journals The use of borehole inclinometry in determining basal sliding and internal deformation at Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 331-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Copland ◽  
Jon Harbor ◽  
Marie Minner ◽  
Martin Sharp
Keyword(s):  
Hot Water ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Digital Inclinometer ◽  
Basal Sliding ◽  
Internal Deformation ◽  
One Year ◽  
Annual Scale ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Displacement Measurements

A series of boreholes were drilled with high-pressure hot water across a section of Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland, in summer 1995. Twenty-three of the boreholes were profiled with a digital inclinometer soon aller drilling, and 14 were re-profiled up to 6 weeks later to determine changes in the longitudinal shape of boreholes with time. In addition to the main surveys, three boreholes were surveyed 14 times each to assess the accuracy and reproducibility of inclinometry measurements. These repeat surveys suggest that caution is needed in the interpretation of short-term borehole displacement measurements, and that the reoccupation of boreholes from one year to the next may be a better way to determine patterns of internal deformation and basal sliding. The annual scale may also have advantages in providing more long-term insight into glaciological processes than short term (single season) measurements.

scholarly journals Differences in Investment Concepts between Chinese and Western Investors from the Cultural Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiming Gong
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Differences ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Cultural Perspective ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The West ◽  
Independent Decision ◽  
Investment Portfolios ◽  
The Capital Market

The investment concept, reflecting the investor's investment purpose and willingness, is a value that embodies the investor's investment personality characteristics, prompts investors to carry out investment analysis, judgment, decision-making, and guides investor behaviors. Due to different maturity of the capital market in China and Western countries, there are many differences in the regulatory level, cultural and behavioral patterns of the supervision and management departments of the capital market between Chinese and Western investment philosophy. This article analyzes the differences in investment ideas between Chinese and Western investors from the culture perspective. This thesis studies on the basis of four cultural differences: "The Golden Mean" and "Interest Maximization"; the face-culture and individualism; rule of man and rule of law; and gambler psychology and adventure spirit. Based on these four aspects of cultural differences, four different investment concepts of Chinese and Western investors are analyzed: long-term investments and short-term speculation; "Herd Effect" and independent decision; grapevines and public information; and leveraged trading and allocation of funds. This thesis adopts several cases to analyze the differences between Chinese and Western investors in financial products such as stocks, gold, and futures, and in investment behavior such as the long-term investment, short-term speculation, leveraged trading, and investment portfolios. With cultural differences between China and the West probed into, the differences between Chinese and Western investors' investment concepts are justified. It is hoped that this effort will help investors deepen the understanding of the capital markets in China and the West, enable Chinese investors to learn the Western mature investment concepts, and facilitate the regulators to manage the capital market effectively.

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