scholarly journals Effect of the Outlet of Sale of Foreign Currency in the Exchange rate Risk

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 47-82
Author(s):  
Hisham Talaat Abdul Hakim ◽  
Shakir Mohsin Saber Al Wahili
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Standard Score ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The One

The aim of the research is to study and analyze the nature of the job that the outlet of sale of foreign currency of the central bank and its affect for managing fluctuations risk in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, in order to prove the research hypothesis two indicators were chosen, the indicators of outlet of sales from the foreign currency as well as the exchange rate risk expressed in a measurement ( standard score z), although the period of time was (42) months were extended for the period from January (2014) to June (2017), The research reach to many conclusions, but the most important is the one that proved the success the outlet of sale of foreign currency in managing fluctuations risks in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, along the time period of the research, Finally the research recommended the need to continue the work of the outlet because it is the main source and is almost the only in continuity of the flow of foreign currency in the Iraqi domestic market and to succeed in achieving relative stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi currency against foreign currency.

The Nature of Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Exposure: The Bangladesh Case

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 180-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunghee Choi ◽  
Md. Abdus Salam ◽  
Ki-Dong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Exposure ◽  
The Us ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Corporate Investors ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

This article analyses whether the effect of exchange rate changes on firms’ returns, known as the ‘exchange rate exposure’ of firms, varies with the nature of exchange rate movements. Using Bangladesh as a case study, we identify multiple structural breakpoints in a Bangladesh exchange rate time series from January 1999 to June 2013, which allows us to divide the whole period into multiple sub-periods. By estimating the exchange rate exposure of non-financial Bangladeshi firms for each sub-period, we find that most firms are significantly exposed in the sub-period spanning May 2011 to June 2013, when movements in the exchange rate between the Bangladeshi taka and the US dollar are unprecedentedly turbulent. This finding is consistent when trade-weighted exchange rates are used. Our results suggest that corporate investors and policymakers in Bangladesh need to be aware of firms’ exchange rate risk when the taka–dollar exchange rate, as the primary indicator, moves significantly away from the previous patterns.

scholarly journals On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (183) ◽  
pp. 32-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milos Bozovic ◽  
Branko Urosevic ◽  
Bosko Zivkovic
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Negative Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Exchange Rate

In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

scholarly journals Cointegration of Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pribawa E Pantas ◽  
Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono ◽  
Misbahul Munir ◽  
Rofiul Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between stock market and exchange rate in Indonesia. The research method used is Johansen cointegration test. The results of this study found no cointegration between the variables tested. Thus the exchange rate, JII, and IHSG have no relationship in the long term. The fluctuation of the rupiah exchange rate in recent years did not generally affect the performance of stock indices especially after the global financial crisis of 2008. This shows the capital market in Indonesia has a good performance so that it is not so sensitive to the sentiment of the decline in the rupiah against the US dollar. This finding is in line with the findings of Syahrer (2010) which states the exchange rate has no effect on the stock market.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Returns on Equity Prices: Evidence from South Africa and Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Jibrin Daggash ◽  
Terfa W. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Uk

This paper examines the exchange rate returns of the Rand (relative to the US dollar) and the Naira (relative to the US dollar) for the presence of volatility. It also examines the effect of the exchange rate returns on the performance of their respective stock market. While it was found that the returns of the South African Rand was volatile, the Nigerian naira was not. Estimating the effect of exchange rate returns and crude oil price on the stock market indices of both countries showed that exchange rate return have a positive effect on the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange thus, confirming the stock flow hypothesis for Nigeria and refuting same for South Africa. Although the VAR granger causality identifies short run fluctuation of the naira as a significant factor affecting the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange in the short run, the Johannesburg stock exchange was found to be mostly affected by short run changes in the Rand and the UK FTSE 100. The paper concludes that policies aimed at stabilizing exchange rate and encouraing more non-oil stocks to be quoted in the Nigerian stock exchange will important. For the Johanesburg stock exchange, raising the listing requirement for firms quoted in the UK FTSE 100 and also seeking listing or already listed in the JSE will be a plausible idea. For both countries, however, curtailing swings in their exchange rate returns would help attract new investments and sustain existing ones hence, helping to spur growth.

scholarly journals The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402110529
Author(s):  
Ying-Sing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Rate Change ◽  
Small Island ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) as the currency of a small island economy, uses the trading information sets from overseas and the market itself to examine the impacts on the adjustment of daily spot exchange rates. The daily USD/TWD is explained by the trading information sets, contain which the daily trading activities and the ratio of the real body on the daily candlestick chart of technical analysis on the Taipei Foreign Exchange Market, as well as the US-dollar index return to explain the USD/TWD spot rate change. The results showed that some of the USD/TWD changes were related to the US-dollar index return on overseas, and that the effect of the US-dollar index return was not limited to the adjustment rate from the previous closing rate to the opening rate on the day, which would affect the adjustment spot exchange rate in the intraday opening-to-closing period. There is a significant positive relationship between the real body ratio of the daily candlestick chart and the return of the exchange rate, supporting the real body ratio related to the change of the exchange rate. The study model can greatly improve the model interpretation ability of the change of exchange rate by about 50% after considering the trading activity factors. Finally, this study found that the volatility has a positive effect on Mondays and the 2008-financial crisis, and based on the shock that the news of depreciation was higher than the news of appreciation, so there exist asymmetry volatility.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND NATIONAL INCOME TO RUPIAH THE AMERICAN DOLLARS IN 2006-2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-248
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irsyad Mustaqim ◽  
Saparuddin Mukhtar ◽  
Tuty Sariwulan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Income ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This research aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation and national income against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar. As for the data used in this research is secondary data, with this type of time series data in the period 2006-2016 obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The method of this research method using exposé facto. Data analysis techniques used in this research is the analysis of multiple regression. By using multiple regression analysis model, the output shows that interest rates (X 1) positive and significant effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Inflation rate (X 2) do not affect the exchange rate of the rupiah significantly to top u.s. dollars (Y). National income (X 3) a positive effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Of test results by looking at their significance value F = 0.000 then it can be said to be 0.05 < simultaneously interest rates, inflation and national income effect significant at α = 5% against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar in the year 2006-2016. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) acquired for 0.660 has a sense that the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar can be explained by the level of interest rates, inflation and national income amounted to 66% while the rest is explained by other factors that do not exist in the model for this research.

scholarly journals Unanticipated Exchange Rate Risk And U.S. Imports

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Abdul H. Sukar
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

<span>The effect of exchange rate risk on trade is one of the more controversial issues in international trade. This paper uses cointegration and error-correction approach to investigate the relationship between unanticipated exchange rate risk and U.S. imports over the period 1974:1-1992:4. The major finding of this study is that the exchange rate risk has a significant negative impact on U.S. imports.</span>

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